Showing posts with label Matt Holliday. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Matt Holliday. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Don't worry DeRosa, they don't hate you, they just hate everything else

The ever more upsetting and frustrating Bay Area sports landscape has managed to finally disgruntle most of Giants Nation...

...or at least that's what it seems like to me.

Most of us are just disgusted with all the losing associated with being a fan in this area. Lord knows fans in other cities like Cleveland have suffered much more than us-- but at least they have LeBron (for the time being).

Who do we have here? We've got Patrick Willis, Monta Ellis, Lincecum, and I guess Nnamdi Asomughua (if you want to count the Raiders as a professional team). Of course we have an all-star hockey roster toiling in relative anonymity in San Jose, but even the Sharks continually rip my heart out every postseason.

It's just a tough place to be a fan right now. Even with the surprising season from our Gyros in '09, it ended in a bitter fashion. With this distaste on our palettes (I'm thinking gross-ass Indian food the day after not brushing your teeth), we shifted our focus to the NFL season at hand. For those of us upstanding Giants/49ers fans, it was hope and elation, leading up to a fateful afternoon in Minneapolis when Brett Favre threw a spiraling pigskin ball that burst our exuberant bubble on its way into Greg Lewis's hands.

The bright spots have been few and far between. Other than the steady Willis and Gore, a few bright spots like Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, and Dashon Goldson come to mind; glowing embers amongst a darkened abyss of abject failure and missed opportunities.

Living amongst the tall grasses surrounding Bay Area wetlands lives an extremely rare creature. This creature is confused, unhappy, and lives a solitary nocturnal life. This bizarre species is known as the Giants/Raiders fan. There are less than 2,000 of these oddball hybrids left, as 50 have died from self-inflicted injuries brought on by the sight of JaMarcus Russell attempting to play football and the thought of Darrius Heyward-Bey being picked ahead of Crabtree and Jeremy Maclin.

And don't even get me started on the Warriors. I don't have words for it anymore. I really don't. It's indescribable.

Not that you didn't know any of these things already. We've been in collective pain for years. Other than Lincecum and the time the Warriors made the playoffs that one time, there's been nothing to cheer about. Everything North of HP Pavilion is a wasteland-- something like Central Nevada or Afghanistan.

With the Giants, the frustration is possibly at its highest levels since Armando Benitez had a job. It's frustration with ownership, frustration with Sabean, frustration with the system.

It's a helpless feeling most of us have. We look at our improbable attempt at a Wild Card berth last year in what was, without a doubt, the most atrocious offense the Giants have ever had. Basic problem solving: identify the problem. Step two is solving the problem in the best possible way.

Problem: No hitting, no power

Ideal Solution: Matt Holliday or Jason Bay

The realistic solution is what has driven 70% of Giants fans into a state of anger and delirium. It's not so much Mark DeRosa that is upsetting these people. What's really upsetting them is the seemingly never-ending cycle of replacing inadequate or used-up parts with slightly used or slightly more adequate ones.

This process is something akin to trading in a 1990 Plymouth Voyager for a 1995 Dodge Grand Caravan. What's next? A 2000 Chrysler Town & Country?

More succinctly, management has continued to add, as Raising Matt Cain would say, "One-Aaron-Rowand-at-a-time". Meaning, a vicious cycle of adding average, complementary veterans every year-- veterans that would be absolutely killer in a lineup where they are the 4th or 5th best hitter.

We all understand this. I know. I know.

In spite of the apparent mediocrity, the DeRosa signing is a step in the right direction. No, he isn't Bay or Holliday. But God dammit you guys, how many times do Brian Sabean and I need to tell you this... WE CANNOT SIGN THOSE GUYS/WE ARE NOT INTERESTED!

Sorry, I'm not rubbing it in, and its basis may be on a scale somewhere between "It sucks to be us" and "That's BS!", but it's the way it is.

Just like we were spoiled by the 49ers' dominance through the '80s and '90s, we were spoiled by Barry Bonds. Sabean made a brilliant buy low trade that turned into Jeff Kent (so don't say Sabes never takes you anywhere!). From there, a carousel of complementary veterans and mid-priced guys drove us to the brink of a World Series victory.

As we all know, Barry was a once in a lifetime player, and anchored this team for years. In addition to that note is that Jeff Kent was a once in a lifetime trade acquisition. Not very often do GM's pull off things like that. Perhaps not since the great Bartolo Colon for Grady Sizemore/Cliff Lee/Brandon Phillips heist of '99 has such a thing happened.

The point of bringing up history is that there is no quick fix out there. There is no Barry Bonds or Alex Rodriguez on the market; no one that would drive ownership to the brink of financial peril at the thought of adding such a talent.

We all know that Bay and Holliday would help. But these are not the types of players that lead you to the promised land. These are not the guys that you say, "This is it. This is our one guy. He will be the solution to all our problems for the next 5 or 6 years."

Trust me, in two or three years when Bay's defense is so bad that the Mets are forced to try him at 1st base, or in two years when the Cardinals cannot afford to match the Red Sox's offer to Albert Pujols because they signed Matt Holliday to a $90MM deal, you will understand. Then St. Louis will see what a mistake they made by stretching their payroll beyond its abilities and boundaries.

Such behavior with the Giants could cause us to lose our own future hall of famer in Timmy Lincecum. That's not something anyone could live with. The thought of it makes me sick.

As for DeRosa, look, baseball-wise, he's a perfect fit on any team. He may not do anything at an elite level, but the man is the essence of a baseball player and human glue. And yes, I know you jaded fans will remind me that "essence of baseball player" is the same cologne we slapped on when we signed Aaron Rowand. Trust me, I know.

And yes, we all scoff at the idea of M.D. (Can we call him "The Doctor" or "Dr. DeRosa"?) playing 3B when left is occupied by an unholy platoon of A.U. and Torres. Unfortunately, Bruce Bochy is a stubborn son of a bitch and is extremely deliberate. His lineups can be maddening; at times unconscionable. With that in mind, it may take a month of two for DeRosa to fully usurp the left field position-- but rest assured that it WILL happen at some point.

My last two points begin with this: The offseason is not over yet, and we don't know what is yet to come. It most certainly will not include Matt Holliday, so just please, knock it off for your own mental health. It is possible that a player like Adam LaRoche could come in to play first and a guy like Miguel Olivo could come in to play catcher.

It is also highly conceivable that the Gyros acquire Pat Burrell from Tampa Bay in a prospect-light salary dump. Burrell is due $9MM this year (FA in '11), and a mid-level prospect would go Tampa's way, while Burrell and $4MM would come this way. Say what you want about Pat the Bat, but he's a Bay Area Native, and in 2008, he slugged his way to a .250/.367/.507 line. Granted he was sandwiched into an absurd lineup, but the man could always hit at a decent clip. Certainly a better clip than anyone not named Panda, Kung Fu.

His season in Tampa last year was a relative disaster, but he was playing DH in the American League, so I believe he was never fully comfortable.

This isn't just something out of left field (although Burrell plays left ironically). The Rays need to dump his salary to keep in line with their own budget constraints in their quest to re-sign Carl Crawford. He was linked to the Cubs' effort to rid themselves of Malignant Bradley before Chicago agreed to take the corpse of Carlos Silva instead.

This scenario is something that crossed my mind earlier this offseason, but the Uggla rumors took over. This discussion on MLBTR jogged my interest in a Burrell deal.

Look, Burrell is not a great fielder, and I will not post his UZR ratings, because they are fugly. Let's say that he's got a great arm, and made only 2 errors in 2008. Okay? What the hell is UZR anyway?

Point two is as simple as this-- are we currently better or worse than last year? With Uribe inevitably coming back, and the addition of DeRosa, you honestly cannot say we're worse.

Maybe Uribe hits a few less dongs. But, maybe a healthy Renteria his a few more. Maybe Aaron Rowand gets on HGH or Ishikawa learns how to hit on the road. Maybe Nate Schierholtz or John Bowker figure it out. Maybe Buster Posey is ready to play.

Yes, it's a lot of ifs, but dude, how could Renteria/Rowand/Schierholtz/Bowker/Ishikawa be that much worse than last year? It's just unlikely.

And just think about how friggin close we were to the playoffs last year. Maybe DeRosa's 15-20 dingers could be the difference. Think of all the goddamn 1 and 2 run losses we had.

The bottom line is yes, we are all frustrated, and not just because of the Giants. These are indeed frustrating times across the board. What we need to do is look at the positives in this situation.

The '10 Giants are already better than the '09 version. My advice? Stop complaining and start looking forward to April.

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Slower than molasses in wintertime...

I thought I'd fire off a quick post here, just to make sure everyone's paying attention. You awake? Okay. Good.

If only we could all purchase a Sabean scanner-- you know, like a police scanner. Some little radio that would pick up all chatter and activity coming out of his office. Honestly, if we had kind of thing, no one would work again.

If we could hear what our oft-maligned GM was doing, we'd probably be just as bored as we are now. I imagine Sabean's day to break down into the following allotments: 3 hours worth of tire kicking, 3 hours worth of "checking up" on a situation (ie. praying to God that the player's price has come down within the last week), and the rest of the day consists of power lunches, cursing Scott Boras, pouring Stoli into Jamba Juice cups, and semi-silent prayer.

The lack of production doesn't necessarily mean that he's not doing anything, because we all know that to be false. What's happening, like last season, is that the big bats have entered smaller markets for their services than they had hoped two years ago. Despite the fact that Bay and Holliday are the far-and-away best players on the wire, there are only 4 teams interested in each of them due to monetary constraints. And since the Gyros are one of those four teams, you can basically draw it down to 3 teams each.

With that said, these two guys are going to set the market, and it's not going to be until January at the earliest. These guys, due to their agents' hubris, believe that a bidding war will somehow ensue and they will both end up with a contract somewhere between Carlos Lee money and Mark Teixeira money.

It is because of this delay, that the rest of the action is delayed. Even guys who shouldn't be affected by an outfield market will stand pat. For example, the Mariners want to keep Adrian Beltre at 3B. However, they also want Jason Bay. If they sign Beltre (who won't sign yet because his agent is Scott Boras), then they're out of Bay stakes. Then Bay has 3 teams to choose from (if you include the Giants)... meanwhile, Beltre is out there somewhere dismissing overtures from teams for good money, even though his market just shrank with the Bay signing (by whomever).

Then of course there is the arbitration issue. The Giants are the most affected team by arbitration in the league. The Blue Bastards have their arby issues too, but who the hell cares about their problems.

For Sabean, it's a guessing game. Depending on how much Lincecum/Wilson/Sanchez get, that's how much they really have to spend. As I wrote here a couple months ago, we shouldn't expect any miracles this offseason, and that once the arby hearings go through and those guys get their raises, we'll have a real figure of $10-16MM to spend this offseason.

So, if you take the conservative look at salary availability ($10-12MM), and look at the recent 2yr./$12MM offer to Mark DeRosa, you can see that there will probably be between $4-6MM left over if DeRosa signs.

The DeRosa offer is reasonable and can definitely be filed under the category of positive action. For that I'm glad.

The only problem is, we're competing directly against the Yankees who just stole Nick Johnson away from us like some rich jock steals a prom date.

If DeRosa falls through, I don't know where the Giants turn next. But Lord knows that overpaying Adrian Beltre is not the answer. And, as we know, even if they want to overpay him, it's not happening until mid-January... so find a comfortable seat and make sure to dress warmly, because the hot stove is not nearly hot enough yet.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

The system is definitely effed up


For those of us out there confused about how, exactly baseball's revenue sharing/lack of salary cap system works, you are not alone. Until this article came out about 10 days ago from ESPN's Jayson Stark, it's really never been totally spread out in front of you.

As you know, (for better or worse), MLB has no salary cap. Teams like the Yankees can spend whatever they can, and that's just fine with Bud Selig. We all complain about it-- those of us that are fans of teams not located in the Eastern time zone or Orange County, CA-- but as Stark and Scott Boras point out, we need to look at these losers with the tiny payrolls.

Yes, Florida and Pittsburgh, we're looking right at you.

These teams make excuses to their fans about small markets, weak economies, small populations, etc.

The real truth of the matter is that the system is set up in a way that truly would benefit these teams if they wanted to succeed. They choose not to. These teams collect a fat check from the rich teams, lay around in a puddle of their own Triple A filth of a roster, and cry poor.

I encourage you to read this whole article on ESPN, but I'm gonna just have to copy and paste some of it here:

"Your team (Pirates/Marlins) collected more money this season -- before it ever sold one ticket -- than it spent on its entire major league payroll. In fact, it collected more than it spent on its major league payroll and its player-development system combined."


Stark goes onto explain:

• "Central fund (includes national TV, radio, Internet, licensing, merchandising, marketing, MLB International money): Each team, from the Marlins to the Yankees, gets the same central-fund payout. And that check comes to slightly over $30 million per team if you deduct the $10 million in pension and operations fees, or just over $40 million if you don't.

• Revenue sharing: Only income-challenged teams get a revenue-sharing check. But you should never forget that those checks are a lot larger than your average rebate check from Target. This sport shared $400 million in revenue this year -- more than the gross national product of Western Samoa. Now every club's payout is different. But the five neediest teams -- which we believe to be the Marlins, Pirates, Rays, Blue Jays and Royals -- averaged somewhere in the vicinity of $35 million in revenue-sharing handouts per team. And that still left over $200 million -- more than $20 million a club -- for the rest of the "payees" to divvy up.

• Local TV/radio/cable: Good luck getting these exact figures. But we know that 29 of the 30 teams make at least $15 million a year in local broadcast money, and no team rakes in under $12 million. Obviously, some clubs collect much, much more than that.

Add $30 million, plus $35 million, plus $15 million, and what do you get? That would be $80 million. At least. Before these teams spin their turnstiles once."


And as we know, there are about 12 teams last year that spent right at, or less than $80MM: Kansas City, Oakland, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Washington, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Arizona, Cleveland, and Baltimore. For those of you keeping track at home, that's 40% of the teams in baseball that are collecting checks for intentionally being non-competitive.

Each of those teams has its issues. With the A's, it's attendance and a horrific stadium. For the Rangers, it's their owner running out of money. For the Padres, it's an impending sale after an ugly divorce. The point of this whole thing is that there are huge checks being thrown these teams' way in order to make them competitive with the New Yorks and Bostons of the the world, and rather than seize that opportunity to bring a little joy into their fans' lives, they choose to cry poor and collect checks.

I was going to make an Obama socialist joke, but I decided against it. In fact, this socialist system in MLB under Selig is such a welfare state that it makes even the Scandinavians jealous.

As for the Giants, they officially had a payroll of about $94MM last year, good for 14th highest in the league-- ostensibly "middle of the road".

As the fans'/local media personalities' drumbeat to spend more money gets louder and louder, we must ask ourselves exactly why ownership cannot or will not spend more on free agents.

An "educated rumor" that I've heard (ie. second hand information from an unnamed someone by way of another unnamed someone in the organization) is that the Gyros lost close to $30MM this season. Now, to be fair, I didn't hear it directly from anyone in the organization, and I don't know if that number was before or after different revenue streams or lack thereof were factored in.

So regardless if that large number is real or not, I believe it.

The Giants get a significant amount of money from local TV and Radio deals. They have decent attendance and solid revenue streams from stadium concessions, etc.

The only possible way I see that they could've lost that kind of sum is from the following:

-- An annual mortgage payment on AT&T Park of $20MM+
-- Little or no revenue sharing check (not including money from the "Central Fund" that Stark described above

It's kind of like the Giants are too well off for a cut of Selig's welfare check, but not well off enough to be able to afford a $110MM payroll. Kind of like that family out there trying to get Financial Aid because they actually need it, but is told they make too much money, even though they have three college aged kids and live in Marin County.

At the same time, because the Giants have a legitimate revenue stream of our own (Stadium, tickets, concessions, TV/Radio), we're somehow at a disadvantage when compared to teams that don't.

Take the Reds as an example. They spent $72MM on their payroll in 2009. What do you want to believe that they were a prime candidate for a big revenue sharing check? Here's how they work out:

-- Central Fund: $30MM (40 minus 10 for pension, etc.)
-- Revenue Sharing: $25MM (Estimate)
-- TV/Radio deals: $15MM (Est.)

That equals $70MM. What was their payroll again? Oh yeah, $72MM.

So then, you factor in Cincy's 5 year old beauty of a ballpark with its 22,000 per game attendance, $8 Miller Lites, $20 parking, $35 Bronson Arroyo T-Shirt jerseys, subtract operating cost and minor league development, and I bet they doing no worse than breaking even.

With the Giants, they're stuck. We live in a big market. We don't get that extra $25MM from sharing like 'Natti gets. That $25MM right there is a mortgage payment, and nearly the exact amount of money they'd need to spend to land a precious bat like Holliday or Bay's and have enough left over to re-sign Juan Uribe.

I'll take a line from the movie Red Dragon:

"Now do you see?"

If I sound like a raving lunatic, please let me know, because I'm not sure anymore....