A Dodgerhater verdict: Bowker deserves right field

I've slept on it. I've analyzed it. I've prayed about it. Hell, I was crying about it most of yesterday. It's just. SO. EMOTIONAL.

I'm not talking about Hot Tub Time Machine, although such a magical film could bring about such reactions. I am of course referring to the great right field debate for the 2010 San Francisco Giants.

I suppose Nate Schierholtz is the incumbent, while Johnny Bowker is the challenger. While neither is perfect, and both are generally unproven, one thing I know for sure: John Bowker has rightfully won the RF job for the Giants.

There is simply no way around it. I tried and tried to find a reason to designate Nate the starter. I like the guy. He's a decent baseball player with a stroke at the plate that when right, is just pure sweetness. During a few stages last season, I was convinced that he was well on his way to contending for a batting title some day. Something about his sweet, effortless swing and the way his liners find grass-surfaced gaps in the outfield.

Then, something strange happened. He lost it-- just totally effing lost it. He began swinging wildly at pitches fixing to hit him in the ankle. Granted, this is a guy who was never too keen on eyeballing pitches with the bat on his shoulder, but it was worse than that. As the great Eddie Money would say, Nate had "No Control".

But he did beat up a Chinese National for his country in 2008...

The one constant of Schierholtz's play at all levels is his magnificent gatling gun of an arm. I swear he reminds me of friggin Vladimir Guerrero circa 2001 when he digs a ball out of the right field corner then fires it on a line 275 feet to the infield. Forget the hitting right now-- his arm is simply world class. I could seriously watch him fire the ball from the corner to all four bases for hours and hours, just like I could listen to Jon Miller describe an apricot orchard or a sidewalk bistro for hours and hours.

Alas, Nate seems to be a bit of a basket case, and is having severe difficulty putting anything substantial together. Last season, nearly every total and percentage he amassed were subpar. This means everything from his .302 OBP to his 5.2 BB% and propensity to swing at garbage 35% of the time. It's just unacceptable plate discipline, and its byproduct is poor production.

As most of you know, I'm not huge on all of these metrics. I respect them to a certain extent, and in some cases they can't be denied. The problem I have is when these Stat Snobs and Saberjerks use them to make asinine arguments for guys like Fred Lewis. In Nate's case, they just don't lie though. His contact percentage was below average, his contact on balls out the strike zone (which he swings at too much) is a full 10 percentage points below the league average, and that just doesn't cut it.

The reason I choose to look at the Sabermetrics in this case is because, at first glance, Nate's '09 numbers don't look horrid. A .267 average, .400 slugging percentage, and 19 doubles in 308 plate appearances just isn't vomit-inducing. It's just not good enough to warrant a starting gig at a power position.

Then of course there's the matter of Schierholtz's disturbing Spring Training production. Yes, there's a great deal of pressure to be dealt with and all that jazz, but in 60 spring AB's, he only hit .233 and struck out a scary 27% of the time. John Bowker on the other hand, is absolutely crushing.

Just as he did in his 2009 season down in Fresno, Bowker is currently enjoying great success. There is simply no denying right now that "Bowkermania" could be at an all-time high. The correlation between torrid AAA numbers and the big show is never a guarantee, but I believe that this is a case that cannot be denied.

As the PCL's MVP last season, Bowker put up: 21 HR, 83 RBI, and sported a filthy .342/.451/.596 line. That's like the triple crown of averages right there. A new approach at the plate and extensive work with new Giants hitting coach Bam Bam Meulens has translated into amazing non-big league success.

Take his scorching hot spring into account.

He led the team with 71 AB's this spring, and man did he take advantage of them. We're talking about 5 dingers, 20 RBI, and a .310/.375/.606 line. Plus he drew 8 walks versus only 11 strikeouts, and 10 out of his 22 hits were for extra bases. We're talking legit numbers here.

Of course, Bowker's limited time as a pro has been underwhelming, but the guy really hasn't gotten a chance.

If we look back to Johnny B's only extended time as a pro in 2008, it looked very similar to Schierholtz's 2009. Their contact percentage, percentage of swings outside the strike zone, BB%, and OBP were nearly identical. The differences between the two lie in Bowker's apparent defensive deficiencies and superior home run power.

Obviously both will make the roster, as they should, but at this point there is absolutely nothing that shows me that Schierholtz deserves the job over Bowker.

Furthermore, a timeshare would be extremely detrimental to both guys. While Schierholtz has at times excelled as a pinch hitter, Bowker seems to fair terribly when not getting regular at bats. While both are lefties, Bowker is weaker versus LHP's while Nate, in a bizarre stat, hits LHP's better than he does righties.

I just hope to the real God and the baseball gods that this doesn't give Bochy an excuse to platoon these two young men. It's just not beneficial to the team or to the development of each as a player.

John Bowker has won this job fair and square, and if he's not out there every day, Giants management is doing their 2010 campaign an extreme disservice.


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Quick plug: If you've got room for another Giants blog in your reading stable, check out Remember '51. It's quickly becoming one of my faves.
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Oh yeah, Spring Training matters alright...

You heard me. Spring training matters.

I'm not necessarily talking about positional and rotational battles. I'm not referring to guys getting into baseball shape and shaking off the rust.

I'm mainly referring to the fact that our Giants with their kickass performance thus far have put themselves into a statistical category that you probably would like to be a part of.

A smart dude I know named Sam sent an email out with the following text based on his research:

"...Spring training DOES actually correlate to regular season. I checked it out. Over the past three seasons, of the teams with the five best records in spring training, HALF of them made the playoffs. Whereas the of the bottom five teams, only 10% made the playoffs. Over the past seven years, the trend is similar with 40% of the top five teams making the playoffs."

That got me thinking even more about how awesome the Gyros are going to be this season and how cool we all are for being Giants fans. Then, after like 15 or 20 minutes thinking about that, I remembered what I was doing and broke out my research hat and put it on for a little while (it's not very stylish or comfortable, so, you know, I don't wear it very often...).

I chose to look at it slightly differently than Sam. I looked at American League vs. National league, and not Cactus vs. Grapefruit, or all of MLB altogether. This may have lessened the impact on the stats themselves and made my argument appear slightly weaker, but since there are only four playoff spots in each league, why should I include the 5th best American League spring training team if during the season the 5th best team gets left out of the playoffs? Anyway, here's what I've got in a nutshell (based on 4 AL/4 NL teams from each year 1996-2009):

-- 36% of the top 8 teams each spring training make the playoffs

-- Compare that to the fact that 29% of AL teams make the playoffs (4 spots, 14 teams), and 25% of NL teams make the show each year (and don't let anyone tell you that the AL is harder to succeed in, that's just BS).

-- Some things really stuck out to me. For instance, in my 14 year study period, the Brewers only had a top 4 NL record twice ('04, '08). Sure enough, their smokin' spring in '08 foretold their eventual playoff run.

This occurred with Cleveland as well in 2007. They hadn't made the playoffs since 2001, but they strode into Florida that March, kicked ass in spring, then ended up pushing the Yankees to the brink of the ALCS.

Same thing for Tampa Bay.

Tampa had never had a top 4 spring record until 2008.

They went to the World Series that year.

-- 9 out of the 14 seasons I looked at produced at least one member of the eventual World Series matchup. So yes, whip out your calculators. There is a 65% chance that at least one team from the top 8 will make the World Series.

-- On that note, in 2008, both teams in the World Series had top 4 divisional spring training records (TB/PHI).

-- Since 2004, the Angels have had a top 4 American League spring training record 5 times out of 6 years. They made the playoffs 4 times during that stretch.

-- In 1997, the Florida Marlins set what must be a spring training record, posting an insane .839 spring training winning percentage. Yeah, they ended up winning it all that year.

What does it all mean?

Well, look, it doesn't mean nothing. That's the point. You can point to these teams like the Yankees or Angels, and say, well they're already good teams. They're supposed to be good and they're already playoff contenders. Fair enough. But about teams like Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Tampa? They went into spring those playoff years with zero guarantees and having missed the playoffs for many years prior. Their rare positive spring training performances preceded playoff appearances.


As we know, there are no guarantees with any of this. The Giants may not make the playoffs (although impossible in my eyes... yes, homerism is a great drug to be under the influence of).

I just find this impressive Scottsdale performance a little too relevant, and a little too positively ominous.

Let's just say that we've got a great friggin chance to do some serious damage this season, and having the best spring training record definitely means something.

Let's hope it means something really cool.

I had a feeling this would happen: The Posey dilemma

Hey folks. Happy March Madness weekend. How are you brackets doing? Did you pick all the wrong upsets on days 1 and 2? I hope you picked Cornell to go to the Sweet 16, because that's where they're going. Inside information from Tony Kornheiser.

Check out the last two entries on Hotstove.com here, and here. Also, I'm submitting full articles there now. Good stuff.

Now, onto the main question: WTF are we going to do with Buster Posey?

There seems to be a good 30-40% of Giants Nation who were fit to be tied when Bengie Molina was re-signed. This group consists mainly of baseball nerds, who think they're better than Joe Eighteen Packs like me. It's really amazing. Baseball fanhood is the only realm of life where nerds actually become elitist snobs that turn their bespectacled noses up at the rest of us who actually believe Bengie Molina is a good ballplayer who helps a team more than he hurts it.

We like the guy, he's a pudgy, funny Puerto Rican that has knocked in some big runs for us-- oh... what's that? Baseball nerds don't count RBIs as positives? Oh. Okay. Sorry. My bad. I thought that was how you win games.

Basically, I was happy that Big Money was re-signed to simultaneously catch, amuse, and frustrate the hell out of us. I felt the salary was about a million too high, but I also felt that it would be a net positive for him to return.

Let's for a minute throw his offense out the window and just focus on what he brings to the rest of the table (where he's probably hitting the buffet hard... that's what I'd be doing).

He is the preferred target of most of the pitching staff, specifically Timmy Lincecum, who has, as you know, won consecutive Cy Youngs while throwing to Big Money.

Nothing about Bengie's defensive stats have declined significantly, although he did seem to be a little slower and lazier behind the plate last year blocking balls. However, he seemed to be more banged up in '09 than previously. Regardless, his receiving skills, game-calling skills, and calming presence behind the dish are net positives.

As for his offense, I don't think I've ever, in all my days on this earth seen an uglier, more frustrating 20 HR and 80 RBI. I mean, I had to do a double take looking at the stats right now. It's unbelievable. How does a guy who appears to be awful put up such significant figures? The truth is that he is awful, but only in certain areas.

He swung at a higher percentage of balls out of the strike zone than any other man in MLB last season. He walked only 13 times in nearly 500 official at bats. His on base percentage was .285 last season. The only guy worse was Yuniesky Betancourt for God's sake. That, and he's slower than molasses in wintertime.

So, I don't know man. I just don't. Maybe Bengie will be more comfortable hitting in the 6th or 7th spot, and will feel less pressure to swing at everything from here to Sunnyvale. But, then again, his highest OBP was only .322. He's about as likely to change his ways as an 80 year-old small town Southern man is.

Speaking of Southerners, what do we do with Posey??

The concern shared by Bochy and Sabean, apparently, was Posey's ability to play the position and call a proper game. Of course he could use some seasoning, he has caught like 400 innings in his entire life at every level... maybe less. He's a bright friggin guy though, and he picks stuff up like that (*finger snap*).

Okay, fair enough.

My concern after last season's brief appearance was that he wasn't ready to hit big leaguers. After ripping up every level he played at, he looked over-matched while with the big club. Granted he only got like 3 ABs (which was angering me to no end at the time), so it simply wasn't a good enough sample size.

This spring, my fears are non-existent. Posey is absolutely raking in Scottsdale with a current .925 OPS in 32 ABs. Again, small sample size, non-regular season setting, but it is now creating a "Catching Controversy". Wow, I thought we weren't going to have to deal with a controversy until David Carr and Alex Smith started battling it out for the title of "Least Awful Former #1 Overall Bust".

The question is, really, "What now?"

Do we send Posey to Fresno for "seasoning"? Does he even need it? Did we underestimate this kid? If we keep him up on the 25 man roster, in what capacity will it be? Backup catcher/pinch hitter? SUPER ULTRA MEGA EXTREME UTILITY GUY?

Because we don't have enough of those guys already.

Can you imagine it? We've got Sandoval at catcher! We've Got DeRosa and 2nd! Huff in Right! Uribe at Short! Posey at 1st! Sanchez at 3rd! OMFG!

Ridiculous. Just absurd.

It does bring up an interesting question though: With 4 or 5 multi-positional players already, what purpose does Posey serve? It's all a big cluster-eff at this point, and damn you Posey for being ready to play! Now we're all messed up!

It is definitely a good problem to have though, and my humble two cents are: If Buster Posey starts the year in Fresno, it's doing everyone a disservice. He's ready to play, and if that means that he catches 2 games to Bengie's 3, or he becomes a personal catcher for someone and plays some first base against lefties, you get his ass in there.

Romo & Runzler are keys to bullpen's success

Firstly, I'd like to apologize for not getting any articles out recently (other than some nonsense). It's been a little hectic (for my standards). I have been Twittering about stuff, and I encourage you to follow @TheDodgerhater if you're into that sort of thing. It's kinda fun, and I never thought I'd ever be down.

With all the Spring Training topics to BS about (or freak out about), I thought I'd kinda do something different for this post. I could talk about the Bumgarner nightmare, or the fact that Buster Posey has a 1.055 OPS while Big Money Molina's is even better (1.077). I'm choosing to look forward, rather than focus the all too tough-to-decipher Spring Training scene.

Last year, Sabean signed some random dudes named Justin Miller and Brandon Medders to throw baseballs for a living. "I'm a Little Bit Country" Medders and "I'm a little bit Rock & Roll" Miller were serious cogs in our 'pen all season long-- especially Miller.

Miller essentially became the 7th inning bridge to Affeldt and Wilson that Lurch Howry was supposed to be, and goddamn did he excel at it. Until he broke down at the end of the year (which was due to serious injury) Miller was sick.

During this time, Sergio Romo was a bit of an enigma. When right, his movement is purely disgusting. His breaking balls almost look like screwballs and he backdoors left-handers like it's his job. (Uh... yeah)

But as a relatively inexperienced dude, he got into a serious funk befitting Earth Wind & Fire or the Ohio Players. Remember last July when he gave up 7 earnies is 3 appearances? Despite his impressive performance last year overall, there were times when he just wasn't trustworthy. This year he will be required to be Justin Miller-- a steadfast 7th inning monster, minus the "LA" tattoo and the August/September breakdown.

(Quick note: Justin Miller is now a Dodger, so from here on out, he shall not be mentioned)

The other guy in the 2010 pen who is both intriguing and hair-raisingly exciting, is rookie Danny Runzler.

A guy buried on many's radars, The Runzmeister burst onto the scene as a late callup in '09, K'ing 11 in as many appearances. Armed with a gaseous heater and some wicked breaking stuff, we could really be looking at the closer of the future. As much as I like B-Weezy, the "Mullethawked One" will become increasingly expensive in his next two arby hearings.

I believe Runzler to be fully ready to step into a significant bullpen role in 2010 as a both a situational lefty (.059 BAA vs. lefties in '09), and a guy who can give you a solid inning or two in any situation. Currently in Scottsdale, he has K'd 9 in only 4.2 innings.

Yeah, yeah, I know. It's Spring Training, and he's thrown a limited amount of innings as a real pro, but this guy has shown nothing but promise and deliverance thus far.

As the season goes on, he will likely hit bumps in the road as all young big leaguers do. However, all indications thus far tell me that this cat is ready for the show.

As for the rest of the bullpen, I see nothing but good things. Assuming we keep 12 pitchers (not a guarantee), we're looking at a pen of Brian Wilson, Jeremy Affeldt, Romo, Runzler, Medders, Todd Wellemeyer, and either Waldis Joaquin, Steve Johnson, Kevin Pucetas, or Guillermo Mota.

Personally, Pucetas looks like the 5th starter at this point, but that's another article for another day.

Indeed my friends, this bullpen looks deep, it looks solid, and I for one am very excited about it.

Here's to an epic 2010!