Like Morse, just enjoy the ride

There's really something to be said for being able to totally relax and enjoy what's going on around you. It's the way you feel on vacation, the way you feel when you gaze out at something beautiful with nowhere to be; your phone only making an appearance to take a picture because there's no service anyway.


It's an odd feeling-- almost surreal when it happens. But it just feels right.


That's the way I'm feeling when watching the Giants these days-- like I don't have a friggin care in the world and nowhere to be.

That's how good they've been.



Hell, even ESPN has noticed. That's how good they've been.

It's been awhile since my last post, partly because there's been no controversy, barely any conflict or poor decisions being made. It almost seems... do I dare say... easy.


In that last post, I wrote that the Giants would be alright without Brandon Belt. Not only have they been alright, they've hit some sort of zone, that can only be enhanced by Belty's return in a couple weeks.


It's difficult to even imagine that they'll be regaining another bat with superb defense when the current lineup has been so successful.


So much of that success can be attributed to Mike Morse and everything he does. He's played an admirable first base and left field, has absolutely raked the ball, and you can just tell, has had a huge impact on the Giants' clubhouse. He's having fun playing baseball and I'm having fun watching him.


It's unfortunate that he's only on a one year deal, because whatever magic Mike has brought to the clubhouse (see what I did there?) and to the lineup, I don't want it to end. Pay the man immediately.


Currently Morse ranks in the top 20 in all of MLB in HR, RBI, Slugging %, and OPS-- something this team has needed for years and years. Curiously though, for you Saberjerks, Morse is only a 0.9 WAR.


See, this is why I have a problem with that stat. It's not an end all be all, and there's exceptions to the rule. I won't go off on a huge tangent, but to say that Mike Morse has only been worth one extra win to this team is beyond absurd. He's been a shot of adrenaline into this lineup and a shot of tequila in the clubhouse. Plus he did this on Stan Lee / Superheroes Night. Hulk status.

 

There of course have been others that have been amazing additions this season-- most notably the ageless Tim Hudson, who has pitched like a Cy Young candidate. However, there's one other guy that has essentially been an addition that I'd like to talk about.

Ryan Vogelsong.

Is he an addition? You betcha. Yah. *Fargo voice*

He may not be a new face around these parts, but Vogey's resurgence to an effective, chainsaw-angry member of the rotation has been huge, especially due to Cain's uneven season and Lincecum, well... being Lincecum.

Vogey currently sports a 3.39 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, with 7 of his 12 starts have been "quality".

His starts have been such a far cry from what we all expected from him, that's it's just gravy. I can't say for sure that he'll be able to keep this up all season, but his efforts have been absolutely huge so far. You could even argue he's been more helpful to the cause than Matt Cain, which is crazy. If Vogey keeps this up, even remotely close to what he's done thus far, the Giants' rotation will outperform expectations all season.

Outperforming expectations has been the name of the game so far, and it's just been plain fun to watch. Posey and Panda have hit rough patches this year at different times, but they've evened out. The Giants keep winning. Pence had a rough start. They win anyway. Belt goes down? No problem. Cain on the DL? Whatever. Buster and Pagan need days off? Oh well, they win without them. Blanco gets some starts? He's a catalyst all the sudden.

It's just insanity.

It's remarkable too how Bruce Bochy has been able to work guys in and out of the lineup lately without much consequence in the win column. It all just works out... and believe me, I've noticed.

Right after Lincecum gave up that first HR to Granderson:

That brings me back to my opening paragraph. You just need to sit back and enjoy the scenery. 21 games over .500 on June 8th is crazy, and it been thoroughly fun.

Part of my ability to just sit back and enjoy this is because we have those two big trophies from 2010 and 2012. Just as the second trophy validated the first, this great start is on its way to validating those other years.

When we won that 2nd World Series, it felt different than the first one. The first one was insane... even with a commanding series lead over Texas, it was gut-wrenching and nail-biting until that final out. With the second one, a feeling a confidence swept over me after we won the first two games. Because even if something bad happened and they blew it, we'd always have 2010. I was able to drink and joke with people against the Tigers without having to get a referral to a cardiologist. It was just plain more fun.

Now, back in an even year, those first two trophies are the Fort Knox full of gold bars that backs up this 2014 currency. I'm able to enjoy it more because I still feel like we're playing with house money. And that my friends, is priceless.

Giants pulling it together despite a bad Panda

Sometimes things click, and sometimes they don't. For these Giants, the offense has once again come back to life, and the bullpen has been excellent. Despite the loss in Pittsburgh on the the play at the plate (today I hate replay), we're looking at a first place team 8 games over .500.

How are they doing this? Well, it's really Giants baseball at its finest give or take.

At AT&T Park thus far, these Giants have managed to earn a 10-5 record, but lest we forget that it could easily be a 5-10 mark. Along the shores of the Cove, they're only managed a middling .251 average, with a 7th worst mark of only 40 extra base hits.

How then have they managed such a solid record? Winning one run games with great pitching.

Even when our starters have been less than stellar, these guys are managing to put up just one more run than the opposition-- the averages tell exactly that. The offense is putting up 3.9 runs a game. The pitching has allowed a league low 44 runs at home, and yes, that equals 2.9 r/pg.

One run games at home you say? Well I never!

On the road though, despite what it seems, these guys have an even worse team average (.236), but surprisingly score almost one more run per game (4.8 r/pg), and their opponents score about 4 runs a game.

That's actually about right when you think about how AT&T Park affects the numbers.

What's just odd about these guys is that they've had hitting that to the eyeball appears to be vastly improved-- and yet the averages are middling, the RISP is only .246, and the power production at home is weak.

This is just one of those cases when averages aren't telling the entire story and a case when the sum of this team's parts add up to something better than you'd expect.

Essentially this lineup has a dead spot or two (excluding pitchers) every time it rolls out there. It's the creaky spot in the floor and the ungreased hinge that wakes up your parents at 3am when you try to sneak back into the house drunk in high school.

Those dead spots are essentially Pablo Sandoval and any non-regular that plays that day.

How bad are these non-regulars? They are terrible. More on that later.

I'm not going to give too much crap to Brandon Hicks, whose been a nice surprise with the longball, but he's still hitting just .208-- very Mark Reynolds-ish. But as long as we're looking at him, let's note that he hits .150 at home, .270 on the road, and has a .313 average with RISP. Curious, but still a decent replacement for Old Man Scutaro and his bad back.

Sandoval meanwhile...

Seriously dude, what the hell? I've seen you in bad streaks before, but this... this is something else entirely. Everything seemed to align nicely for you to have a massive contract year. But alas, you've changed too much. Your smaller waistline hasn't helped you at the plate, and now your mental problems stemming from pressure have gotten the better of you.

I refuse to believe that this contract situation has not affected him, because even he is normally incapable of such consistent ineptitude. It's as plain as day though, he quite simply has sucked, and isn't doing any of the things he normally does.

Thankfully, while trying to figure out his 2014 patterns, Eno Sarris over at Fangraphs had already figured it all out.

His conclusions? Panda is no longer swinging at the first pitch.

Huh?

Seems crazy that the guy who we drill into the ground year after year for swinging at the first pitch could have possibly slowed his roll to his own detriment. But maybe his most maddening habit was helping him after all.

From Sarris at Fangraphs:

So he’s swinging less and reaching less, but unfortunately, he’s also swinging at pitches inside the zone less, too. But it turns out, *when* he’s swinging is much more important than *which pitches* he’s swinging at. Look at his swing percentage on the first pitch over the course of his career: 

Credit: Eno Sarris from Fangraphs.com

That's good work, Eno.

This is more than an anomaly. This is a guy trying to overhaul his entire approach at the plate and failing miserably.

You're seeing him force himself into taking pitches and starting off more often with an 0-1 count. Throw in a couple lousy swings, and you have yourself a .168 average with a 22% strikeout rate-- a full 7 points higher than his mark last season. He's not swinging, then swinging, missing, or making outs too consistently for this to keep itself up. Instead of that $100 mil his slimewad agent is looking for, he's going to end up on the free market with an unsightly qualifying offer looming over his head and a career worst year to his name.

Other dead spots? How about the entire bench? Arias, Perez, Blanco, Adrianza? Horrendous. Not sure, but if they keep this up, we're probably talking historically bad.

With the lone exception of Hector Sanchez, who's shown signs of life recently and has done a nice job behind the plate, we're talking about one of the worst-hitting benches in baseball.

Luckily they're all slick with the glove, because this is bad news. Arias, Perez, Blanco, and Perez are a combined 17-123 for a nauseating .138 average, 3 extra base hits, and 0 HR (as of 5/6).

No one expected any of these guys to put on a Pink Floyd Dustin Pedroia laser show, but Jesus, this is bad.

Lord knows Bochy tries to get these guys in there to kickstart them and give their main guys a breather, but at some point, I'd rather have a tired regular than a sub .200 hitting bench guy making routine plays then routinely grounding out. At some point, we're going to have to think about pulling up a hot bat from Fresno like Nick Noonan and rolling the dice.

As for pitching, it has been all about Tim Hudson and The Bullpen (which should be a band name immediately). Huddy has been worth every penny and then some, and the bullpen has been huge. While Bumgarner has been hit or miss (mostly hit in his last few starts), and Cain, Timmy, and Vogey are all a coin flip these days, Hudson has allowed more than 2 runs only once, and has been an absolute pillar of strength every fifth day. He's one of those guys that I just wish we'd had on our team earlier in his career-- not that it even matters, because he's pitching like a Cy Young candidate.

The only guys in the bullpen with an ERA over 1.88 are Gutierrez (3.60), (Huff, DL, 3.86) and Petit, who got lit up as an ill-prepared spot starter for Cain. His ERA before that start was 2.61 as a mostly bullpen oriented swingman.

Casilla has been a monst, and Jean Machi has been unbelievable. And in case you didn't know, Machi and his 5 wins (I know, I know) are leading Major League Baseball.

BITCHES!

I honestly like the way things are going with this team. There's always room for complaint and improvement, but with the run production they've managed, plus a stalwart bullpen, I think this team will be in 1st place a good chunk of this year or bare minimum knocking on the door.

Giants could be seriously good, but also mortal

I waited a week to jump in here and write something intentionally, as to not overreact about such a small sample size. Seeing as though week one ended on a pretty lousy note in LA, I feel as though we've all been doused with a little bit of reality after a pretty sizzling start.

We're not going to win 110 games. Belt isn't going to break Bonds's HR record, and Pagan won't hit .450 the rest of the way. But what we do know, is that this 2014 incarnation of our beloved Giants could be-- and I emphasize could be, as good or better than the 2012 Champions.

For once, the lineup appears to be well... really good. There's a pretty nice mix of power and contact throughout the lineup, and honestly, I think the days of finishing in the bottom 5 in runs scored and HRs is over. Prior to the season, we all looked at the lineup on paper and thought, "Wow. If this goes right, and that guy stays healthy, and this guy continues getting better, we could score a lot of runs."

Well, things are beginning to fall into place, now aren't they? Every single one of our power hitters has hit a HR, and effing Brandon Belt has 4. FOUR HOME RUNS! Like... seriously?

Seriously. I saw them.

The Belt development is the single most important event to happen to this lineup since I don't know when... probably since we added Pence via trade.

Forget what he's on pace for, but instead just sit back and acknowledge that Belty has finally figured it out, and is a legitimate power hitting corner infielder. Many of us knew it was a matter of time, others thought he would never pan out and were on the Brett Pill Crazy Train to nowhere.

With what we've seen so far. Belt is not only a lock for 25 dingers and an .800+ OPS with good defense, but we're talking potential all-star selection.

I know it's only 7 games, but this metamorphosis began last year with the grip change, and you all saw how he improved. This didn't just come out of nowhere.

Someone who did kinda come out of nowhere was Brandon Hicks, or Brandon #3, or B3 for short. Is that going to catch on? No? Okay, I tried though.

A former 3rd round pick of Atlanta, Hicks was a long shot to make the team at all. Now he's making some serious noise at the plate. The guy is doubling, hitting home runs... all out of nowhere. Of course, he'll probably cool off, but just the fact that there's a guy on our team capable of replacing Scutaro that has pop? Just what the doctor ordered... as long as Bochy doesn't take too many ABs away from B3 in favor of Adrianza so that he cools off.

Another guy the doctor ordered is Mike Morse. Man, it sure is nice to have him on this team. I know he's a bit injury prone and he will strike out a good deal. But the guy can hit. He's contributed in a number of different ways at the dish, including a crazy bomb in LA that went like 450 feet. Also, he hasn't hurt us defensively yet, and the 7th inning Gregor Blanco substitution thing seems to work just fine.

All in all, I could not be happier with this lineup right now, save for Scutaro basically hanging in career limbo with this bad back of his. I asked Twitter and Facebook recently that if all they got out of Marco's $20MM contract was this picture and the 2012 World Series, was it worth it? There was a resounding yes, and a couple smart asses that said he was re-signed after that. Yeah geniuses. Thanks for that.

Now the pitching, I'm not so sold on. Of all the idiotic things John Kruk rambled on about on Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN, the one thing that I hate to agree with but do is, "I don't know if the Giants have the pitching to get done this year."

Sucks, but from what we've seen so far, it might be true. As I see it, there are two guys-- Madison Bumgarner and Tim Hudson-- that are going to be rock solid performers every 5th day. There's Matt Cain, who will be somewhere between decent and good, and then there's the Wild Cards, Lincecum and Vogelsong.

Granted, Vogelsong did very well in his first start, and I think that's a seriously encouraging sign. Let's keep our fingers crossed on him. However, we need to face the possibility that he may begin to suck and will be run out of town in a more delicate fashion than Todd Wellemeyer once was. We owe Vogey that much.

Lincecum is probably going to have another season of 4.50-4.75 ERA ball with maddening starts of equal parts brilliance and gopher balls. That's been the trend the last two seasons, and I just don't see it changing unfortunately. His propensity to give up the long ball and get bogged down in big innings will be his undoing half the time, and that's what we'll likely get. A beloved .500 pitcher-- like your smartphone a year and a half into your two year Verizon agreement. Completely maddening.

Cain to me is the most concerning. He's beginning 2014 much the way he began 2013-- by giving up HRs in bunches and bunches. Just like last year, it's concerning as hell, but there's evidence to suggest that he can avoid these things somehow. It's as if he's cruising along, and things are fine, then boom-- gone. Two batters later? Gone again. I just don't understand.

It should be of course noted that last season Cainer did improve toward the second half of the year, and cut down on the long ball. If not, I'm afraid, he'll be more in the Lincecum category than the Bumgarner one, and that's not going to win us that 3rd even year World Series in a row.

And John Kruk will be right.

We can't have that.

So everyone, take the first week for what it was-- a week, but just know that this team has the potential to be seriously good, and that it's probably going to come down to pitching-- just like every other year.

And I hate the Dodgers.

Tim Hudson a good move for Giants, Javy Lopez close to deal

Ladies and Gentlemen,

We're picking up speed here.

Seemingly out of left field, Tim Hudson is a Giant, and I for one am pleased.

How can you go wrong with A) a proven competitor and good pitcher and B) a two year deal?

Yes, he's getting long in the tooth at 38, but he's still in great shape, should be fully recovered from his season-ending ankle injury last season, and he flat out knows how to pitch. With the starting pitching market in its currently absurd state, two years, $23MM for a 38 year old like Huddy seems like a not-so-bad proposition when compared to the 4 year hamstringing albatrosses in the $60MM range stiffs like Edwin Jackson and Ryan Dempster got and Ricky Nolasco will likely get.


Yep, that's where we are in baseball. We're to the point when $11.5MM a year for a 3rd/4th starter is a bargain. I don't know how we ended up here, but it just is what it is.

It's also a bargain when compared to Tim Lincecum, who will make a whole lot more for, as of now, worse statistics.

With Hudson, the Giants get a guy who knows how to pitch. Throughout his career, he's done a great job mixing speeds, and throwing a variety of pitches to keep hitters guessing. He's only lost a mile and a half on his fastball since 1999, and hasn't had a BB/9 average higher than 3 since 2006.

Most recently, Hudson had a 1.19 WHIP and opponents only hit .246 against him. Also, he has allowed a total of 56 HRs since 2006. In comparison, Lincecum has given up 110 round trippers... and he didn't make it to the majors until 2007.

So yeah, Tim Hudson is pretty damn good for an old guy I'd say.

How much of that plays into the fact that the Oakland Coliseum and Turner Field are cavernous pitcher's parks? Well, that's a valid argument to a certain extent.

Career stats have Hudson with a 3.04 ERA at home and a 3.82 ERA away. In 2013, the splits were sharply different with Hudson posting a 2.83 ERA at Turner and a 4.86 ERA elsewhere. 2012 seems to be a bit of an anomaly, with a lower ERA on the road, but 2011 sticks to the script, with 2.31/4.57 home/away splits.

The good news here is that he's pitching to another massive outfield like Atlanta and Oakland. There are trips to San Diego and LA to look forward to. But there's also Phoenix and Denver too... so let's hope these splits don't get too crazy. He's had only 2 seasons since 2002 where he's pitched better on the road.

Let's not make too, too much of this though. Many players pitch better at home. Just something to keep an eye on during those hot weather trips to the bandboxes of America's Heartland in the middle of the season.

Then there's the intangibles. Hudson is a hard-working guy who has refined his craft over the years and really hasn't dropped off at all, like many do at his age and with the amount of miles on his arm. He's yet another Southerner that will immediately fit in with leaders Cain, Posey, and Bumgarner, and here's the kicker: he wants to be here.

This isn't a high-bidder take all thing like Albert Pujols. Hudson expressed interest in being here, and he may have taken a lower offer to make that happen. It's a rarity these days, but I just love hearing that. Especially because the Giants have had a seriously difficult time wooing free agents in the past.

Buy hey, what pitcher wouldn't want to pitch for us? It's damn near impossible to give up a home run and you get to throw to Buster Posey. When his contract expires after 2015, hopefully some of our young arms will be ready to go. Sounds like a pretty sweet plan to me.

Welcome aboard sir!

Lopez near deal?

Bobby Evans told Jim Bowden that the Giants are about to re-sign Javier Lopez. Check out the MLBTR article here.

This is a great deal at nearly any cost. Lopez is as reliable as they get, and the Giants' bullpen would've been severely weakened if he had left. Unlike Jeremy Affeldt, Lopez can be counted on.

Now about that left fielder...