Good thing the Giants re-signed Vogelsong, huh?

Scarcely a day has passed in this ODD YEAR, and things are getting really weird already (See the title of my Opening Day post).

Cain giving the finger to his pitching arm.

No one quite knew the state of Matt Cain, but we were all expecting him to pitch in Phoenix this week. The excitement of his triumphant return has been quashed, like cow shit shoveled by a rancher onto an out of control burn pile. No, he's not set for Tommy John, but my God does that cow manure fire smell terrible.

That fire smells even worse now because a bunch of animal hair blew into it, and it's all Jake Peavy's back's fault.

Vogey is getting chainsaw angry.

Downwind of this shitty hair fire started by Cain and Peavy stands Ryan Vogelsong, the King of Shoulder Chip Mountain, calmly eating an enchilada, nostrils flaring, intense eyes burning-- not due to acrid smoke, but because he's ready to prove everyone wrong for the 417th time.

This fragile, inconsistent, aging rotation (minus Bum of course) was an issue from day one. Fortunately the Giants have a solid quantity of potentially quality arms ready to step in and piss on a few fires. Vogelsong, who thought he was destined to a season of long relief, becomes the first man up during the first series of the season.

No one knows whether he's going to be a guy that can rack up more quality starts than not, but as we know, he seems to thrive on doubt and pressure. He wills himself to get big outs, and has resurrected his career more times that anyone can count.

I love Vogey's fight and his spirit. Hopefully, we will love his pitching, as he attempts to fill the void left by Cain and Peavy, however long it may last.

Thoughts and stuff

• HAY PABLOO! HAVE ANOTHAH LOBSTAH ROLL YA BASTAHD! (Pablo went 0-3 with a Silver Sombrero in his first game as a Sawk. Good.
• Unfortunately, Pablo's BFF Hanjob Ramirez hit two home runs. Can't win em all I guess.
• I feel like Game 1/162 is going to be a microcosm of 2015. Everything from the Romo double to Roberto Kelly's stop sign, to...
• ...the top of the order being AWESOME. How bout those OBP machines Aoki, Panik, and Pagan?? Yeah!!! I can't tell you how nice it is to have a team that gets hits. I don't even care that they just hit a bunch of singles. We've had years when we don't even get THAT.
•  I'll take a team that hits a bunch of consistent singles than a team that hits a HR once a game.
• It's ironic that a guy that is just so awesome is referred to as "Bum" so often.
• Anyone see how the Marlins had a rain delay in their retractable roof stadium? Apparently how they judge whether to open or close it is based on three executives who check apps on their phones and let stadium staff know. Perhaps it's time to consult an expert. Good luck getting Jeff Loria to sign off on that.
• List of new Dodgers that we have to hate: Jimmy Rollins, Brandon McCarthy, Brett Anderson, Howie Kendrick, Yasmani Grandal, and Joc Pederson. 
• I was watching the Madres-Doyers game at work yesterday and Jimmy Rollins hit a 3 run homer because Shawn Kelly and Yonder Alonzo couldn't figure out where first base was. Rollins is on my list now, whether we like it or not. It's a shame.
• Also a bummer that we have to hate Brett Anderson and Brandon McCarthy, who absolutely OWN Twitter. McCarthy just called some Yankee fan a "tit" the other day. Gold Jerry! Gold!
• Classy move by Arizona to honor Lon Simmons. Kuiper was surprised that they did that, because he has been retired for some time and didn't have connections to Arizona. But, Kuip forgot that Lon Simmons has connections to the Oakland A's, and Tony LaRussa and Dave Stewart now run the Diamondbacks. So classy move, TLR and Old High Voice.
• When new Cubs manager Joe Maddon hit Jon Lester 8th on Sunday, do you think Tony LaRussa called him to congratulate him or did he ask for royalties? #PitchersHit8th
• Casey McGehee and Nori Aoki will be fan favorites almost immediately. Guaranteeing it.

So the odd year begins, may it be weirder than ever

Sometimes you just run out of things to say.


What can you say that hasn't already been written or said about the Giants and these last 5 years? It's simply mind-boggling what they've accomplished, and I'm still pinching myself from 2010, let alone the other two.


As this team heads into another odd year with yet another unexpected ring in tow, they have the unique distinction of having more questions than answers, and having two teams in their division significantly favored over them, fair or not.


I say "unique" only because, you know, it's the Giants.


What other team could win 3 in 5 and be considered a 3rd place team before the season starts with so few changes?


The lost Pablo. Okay. Sort of a big deal.


Sometimes Pablo was great, but let's be honest, he was good for about 3-5 streaks a year and a great postseason performance (after he got his life together post-2010). They'll miss 3 HRs against the Tigers and all those singles from 2014.


The honest to God truth of the matter is though, that he was just a little bit better than average. Larger than life, and a marketing department's dream, yes. A regular season superstar however, he never was.


Look at 2014's regular season. .279 with 16 HRs and above average defense. That's a solid player, that's a  a good player, but that's not a great player.


I am not downplaying his contributions to this team, especially in the postseason. I am not downplaying his impact on the fanbase or on the bottom line. He was a great Giant overall, but a great player, he was not. He was the 11th most valuable 3B last year according to WAR, and he had a lower batting average, on base percentage, and only scored 8 more runs than his cheap and scrappy replacement, Casey McGehee.


Again. Not saying we're not going to miss him at all, I'm just saying that he wasn't truly great, and all that shit he said on the way out left a sour taste in everyone's mouth. Adios Pablo, and good luck with Boston being sympathetic to your cold streaks and new lobstah roll addiction.


Other thoughts

-- Tell him goodbye. Rest in peace Lon Simmons. Although your heyday was well before my time, there's no question you were an absolute legend. What I wouldn't give to sit down with our Giants broadcasting team with a couple other legends and hear the stories they'd tell. Hell, invite Vin Scully while we're at it. Maybe this can be arranged once we're all dead because of ISIS or Al-Shabab and we'll all meet up in heaven. It's a plan.


-- Get well Hunter Pence. This team's OF will probably account for 35 HRs combined WITH Pence. Without him, as I read somewhere, "this OF has so little power, it's comical". Where have we heard that one before? Oh yeah, like almost every year.


-- OH YEAH! Duffman returns. Get your Duff and Duff Light ready, because Matt Duffy made the roster with a .361 Spring over the perpetually lame Ehire Adrianza. I will be glad to see Adrianza finally off the roster, as he is out of options and will probably be grabbed by some desperate team of jerks. Adrianza was a poor man's Manny Burriss. I'm glad to see Duffy rewarded for his play, and I'm also looking forward to him playing all over the diamond to get into the lineup. Then he will take advantage of a random injury, gain 5 position fantasy eligibility and will become the new Ben Zobrist.


I guy can dream, right?


-- If Gary Brown gets cut and claimed by the Cardinals and assigned to AAA Memphis and no one cares, does he make a sound? The answer is no, because that happened, and no one talked about it once. I wish him well, but it's safe to say, he was a complete waste of a 1st round pick.


-- The rotation possibilities are endless, because we don't know who's good and who sucks. Who will join Bum, Peavy, Cain, and Hudson in the rotation for the long haul? Or will it be a constant revolving door of maybes, has beens, and spot starts between Lincecum, Petit, and Vogelsong? Spring training numbers told us they all looked pretty bad, with Peavy having a near 10.00 ERA. If I had to wager a guess, they'll trot out Lincecum until we've all had it with him, then Vogelsong will end up in there with Petit mopping up innings and spot starting due to injury.


Then there's the what ifs related to injury. Will Matt Cain regain his form or will he be a gopherballer with diminished velocity? Is Hudson done? Is Peavy done? Is Lincecum done? Is Vogelsong done?


Hahaha. Patterns and speculation are fun!


-- The Padres have a lot of good players


-- The Dodgers have a lot of good players


-- I think we're still good, but I'm not sure


-- Tell me the last time a paper champion won a World Series. 2009 Yankees? 2007 Red Sox? The point is, it doesn't happen very often. Good luck trying to buck that trend, Doyers and Madres.


-- I predict that Belt, Posey, Pence, Panik, Crawford, McGehee, Aoki, and Pagan will hit a combined 100 HR. We'll get another 20 from randoms, and that puts us at 120. That is 12 down from last year's total of 132, which would have put us at 25th in the league. No Morse, no Panda, makes a little too much sense, right?


Don't feel too bad about our return to the bottom of the power rankings though. Kansas City hit 95 HR last year-- which was worst in baseball. So, we can still make it to the World Series and lose, right? Pretty good for an odd year.


-- Bochy and Sabean are locked up until they're really old. Good for them, they've earned it. I have no issue with that. Also good to see Bobby Evans named General Manager. He's been the guy behind the contracts and scouting for a very long time. Sabean made the decisions, but Evans was the one talking to the agents, drawing up the contracts, and doing the research. He was the man behind the man, and now he is the man. Truly proving that in the right situation, hard work pays off. Plus, he's a very candid interview to listen to. Wonder who he got that from...


Once Pagan and Belt go down with their annual injuries, can we find a way to trade for Allen Craig please? Boston is literally not using him this year. Maybe being close to his old stomping grounds at Cal will help him find his mojo. Just a thought.


Speaking of Belt, how many more years of snakebitten disappointment are we going to sign up for before it's time to cut bait? It's the same thing every year. Freak injuries or lack of confidence do him in one way or another. I don't know about you, but I'm ready for a goddamn 150 game, 30 HR breakout season. He's well overdue and I'm tired of waiting.



I'M EXCITED.

LET'S PLAY SOME BASEBALL!

Like Morse, just enjoy the ride

There's really something to be said for being able to totally relax and enjoy what's going on around you. It's the way you feel on vacation, the way you feel when you gaze out at something beautiful with nowhere to be; your phone only making an appearance to take a picture because there's no service anyway.


It's an odd feeling-- almost surreal when it happens. But it just feels right.


That's the way I'm feeling when watching the Giants these days-- like I don't have a friggin care in the world and nowhere to be.

That's how good they've been.



Hell, even ESPN has noticed. That's how good they've been.

It's been awhile since my last post, partly because there's been no controversy, barely any conflict or poor decisions being made. It almost seems... do I dare say... easy.


In that last post, I wrote that the Giants would be alright without Brandon Belt. Not only have they been alright, they've hit some sort of zone, that can only be enhanced by Belty's return in a couple weeks.


It's difficult to even imagine that they'll be regaining another bat with superb defense when the current lineup has been so successful.


So much of that success can be attributed to Mike Morse and everything he does. He's played an admirable first base and left field, has absolutely raked the ball, and you can just tell, has had a huge impact on the Giants' clubhouse. He's having fun playing baseball and I'm having fun watching him.


It's unfortunate that he's only on a one year deal, because whatever magic Mike has brought to the clubhouse (see what I did there?) and to the lineup, I don't want it to end. Pay the man immediately.


Currently Morse ranks in the top 20 in all of MLB in HR, RBI, Slugging %, and OPS-- something this team has needed for years and years. Curiously though, for you Saberjerks, Morse is only a 0.9 WAR.


See, this is why I have a problem with that stat. It's not an end all be all, and there's exceptions to the rule. I won't go off on a huge tangent, but to say that Mike Morse has only been worth one extra win to this team is beyond absurd. He's been a shot of adrenaline into this lineup and a shot of tequila in the clubhouse. Plus he did this on Stan Lee / Superheroes Night. Hulk status.

 

There of course have been others that have been amazing additions this season-- most notably the ageless Tim Hudson, who has pitched like a Cy Young candidate. However, there's one other guy that has essentially been an addition that I'd like to talk about.

Ryan Vogelsong.

Is he an addition? You betcha. Yah. *Fargo voice*

He may not be a new face around these parts, but Vogey's resurgence to an effective, chainsaw-angry member of the rotation has been huge, especially due to Cain's uneven season and Lincecum, well... being Lincecum.

Vogey currently sports a 3.39 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, with 7 of his 12 starts have been "quality".

His starts have been such a far cry from what we all expected from him, that's it's just gravy. I can't say for sure that he'll be able to keep this up all season, but his efforts have been absolutely huge so far. You could even argue he's been more helpful to the cause than Matt Cain, which is crazy. If Vogey keeps this up, even remotely close to what he's done thus far, the Giants' rotation will outperform expectations all season.

Outperforming expectations has been the name of the game so far, and it's just been plain fun to watch. Posey and Panda have hit rough patches this year at different times, but they've evened out. The Giants keep winning. Pence had a rough start. They win anyway. Belt goes down? No problem. Cain on the DL? Whatever. Buster and Pagan need days off? Oh well, they win without them. Blanco gets some starts? He's a catalyst all the sudden.

It's just insanity.

It's remarkable too how Bruce Bochy has been able to work guys in and out of the lineup lately without much consequence in the win column. It all just works out... and believe me, I've noticed.

Right after Lincecum gave up that first HR to Granderson:

That brings me back to my opening paragraph. You just need to sit back and enjoy the scenery. 21 games over .500 on June 8th is crazy, and it been thoroughly fun.

Part of my ability to just sit back and enjoy this is because we have those two big trophies from 2010 and 2012. Just as the second trophy validated the first, this great start is on its way to validating those other years.

When we won that 2nd World Series, it felt different than the first one. The first one was insane... even with a commanding series lead over Texas, it was gut-wrenching and nail-biting until that final out. With the second one, a feeling a confidence swept over me after we won the first two games. Because even if something bad happened and they blew it, we'd always have 2010. I was able to drink and joke with people against the Tigers without having to get a referral to a cardiologist. It was just plain more fun.

Now, back in an even year, those first two trophies are the Fort Knox full of gold bars that backs up this 2014 currency. I'm able to enjoy it more because I still feel like we're playing with house money. And that my friends, is priceless.

Giant pitching questions this offseason

Firstly, I apologize for not writing much in the waning moments of the 2013 season. It just got too depressing, too frustrating, and the same issues were being discussed ad nauseum by every source and blog between here and Timbuktu (which is in Mali, in case you're wondering). Mali is the same place that "Would Be" Champions shirts get sent. Even they are discussing whether the Giants will re-sign Tim Lincecum, while clad in 2007 Rockies World Series Champions shirts.

The pitching issues facing the Giants following an embarrassing World Series defense-- if you call what they did in 2013 defending a championship-- are long and well-documented. But, let's do it again, just for old time's sake.

Under club control with buyouts

Barry Zito ($7MM buyout)
Ryan Vogelsong ($6.5MM club option w/$300k buyout)

Unrestricted FAs

Chad Gaudin
Javier Lopez
Tim Lincecum



"Analysis" (Look at me, I"m a blog analyst! I think I'm cool!)

To me, Zito is gone; he just has to be. He had his sendoff, he got his curtain calls, and we had the lovefest. Giants fans are the most sentimental in baseball, and that's fine. I love being part of such a loving group of fans. But let's be real. Enough is enough with Zeets. He's not good, he never really was, and yes we appreciate the great performances in the 2012 postseason. I wish him the best, but it can no longer be on my team as a player. I'd welcome him to the coaching staff.

Vogelsong is an interesting case. He showed signs after his return from injury that he was capable of being a starting pitcher. But he also showed some signs that he was the horrendous first half pitcher in 2013 during the back stretch. I know he's a stubborn, chainsaw-angry, motivated son of a bitch, so I'm willing to give him another shot if I'm Brian Sabean. However, I buy him out of his deal at $300k, and say, "Look man, we like you here, and we don't think you're finished, but based on last year, we can't justify $6.5 mil. We'll offer you the $300k, plus a base of $2 million, and we'll incentivize (is that a word?) the shit out of your contract. Cool? Now excuse me while I answer my Moto Razr flip phone."

If Vogey says no, then I wish him the best as well. He's a good dude, a better story, and was an inspiration.

Chad "Grope-din" is a guy I'd like back. Assuming this whole "groped a woman on a gurney at 4am in a Las Vegas hospital" thing was a misunderstanding-- or rather there was a better explanation than him being absolutely shitfaced and a complete scumbag, then I'd like him back.

Gaudin was an invaluable part of the Giants' staff last season, and kept things from getting completely "Houston Astros bad" when Vogelsong went down. That of course weakened the bullpen, but his versatility was a necessity in 2013. A 2-3 year deal in the $10MM range isn't out of the question, and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets way more from another desperate team. He was obviously fatigued from all the extra groping innings that piled up on his arm, and is better suited as a long man in the pen and part time swingman starter. Regardless, he's a helpful piece, and I'd like him back.

Javier Lopez is an absolute necessity to be back. He sported better numbers than 2012 and shows no signs of slowing down-- especially against lefties. That's his job, he does it well, and a raise from the $4.25MM he made in 2013 is certainly warranted. If I'm Lopez, I look at the $5MM Affeldt is guaranteed through 2015 and say, "I'll have what he's having, plus a full tank of gas, a bloomin' onion from Outback with extra sauce MIND YOU. I'M TIRED OF RUNNING OUT OF BLOOMIN' ONION SAUCE."

Pay the man.

And now to Timmy.

I'm not going to go through why we like Lincecum, we all know his history with the team. As Tim McGraw might've said, "We like him, we love him, and some of us want some more of him."

Unlike Tim McGraw in his song about a hot chick, Giants brass and fans are a bit divided on whether bringing back Lincecum is the correct move.

He showed signs of life in 2013 after a 2012 regular season that could be described nicely as embarrassing. Still, he finished with a 4.37 ERA while making $22 million last year. Among the 79 qualified starters last year, that ERA mark is tied with Wily Peralta of the Brewers for 11th worst in baseball. If you're into WAR, which I'm not, he placed 16th in the league at 1.6 games above average. He walked people at the 10th highest rate in baseball, and his overall numbers are just hit and miss-- just like his starts.

I say he's all even-steven with the Giants when you think big picture. He outperformed small salaries early in his career and underperformed with big salaries recently. He won 2 CYs, 2 Championships, threw a no-no, and if this is the last we see of him, I'm okay with that.

But, if he's willing to be reasonable about his value and accept a deal in the neighborhood of $6-8MM a year for 2-3 years with incentives, then I'm fine with having him back.

Anything more than that, and he can go back home to Seattle and toss fish around with Pete Carroll in the rain.

I hate the Seahawks.

Pitching staff big picture

Beyond Cain and Bumgarner, the future is murky.

Assuming Zito and Vogelsong are not back, and the potential departure of Lincecum, we're talking about replacing 60% of the rotation-- and possibly needing to place its insurance policy, Chad Gaudin.

Sabean has some work to do, and I just hope this team doesn't have to overpay for pitching in some sick Zito-like scenario just to plug a couple holes.

With its present outstanding questions, there's no way this team can be considered a World Series contender. If Vogey, Timmy, Gaudin, and Lopez all return, and someone like Petit gets a shot at the rotation, we're basically the same as last year.

And last year, we were terrible.

Let's not get hung up on names and remember that the goal is improve from year to year. Unfortunately, that's not easy, especially when you don't have Magic Johnson Guggenheim Time Warner Cable money to blow on expensive booze and unnecessary shiny things that break after a year of regular use-- like a Jaguar with 80,000 miles on it.

Free Agents aren't abundant this year, and the good ones (including Lincecum) will receive the dreaded "qualifying offer". Teams like the Giants are able to offer its FAs a Q.O., which is an average of the 125 top salaries in baseball-- almost like the NFL's "Franchise Tag". This season it works out to around $14MM.

If a team thinks it'll lose an FA and is okay with the possibility of that player accepting the 1 year, $14MM deal, then the team that signs said player will forfeit their 1st round pick (unless they have a top 10 pick), in which case they forfeit their 2nd rounder. The team that lost the FA then receives a "sandwich pick" in between rounds 1 and 2.

This may work to the Giants' advantage if they lose Lincecum to another team after offering him the QA. However, by the Giants stupidly winning games at the end of the season (I blame management), they are slated to have the 14th pick in the draft, which is unprotected.


If the Giants sign someone like, let's say, Bronson Arroyo, who always kills us and would put up great numbers in a big ballpark like AT&T, the Giants will lose their 1st rounder to Cin
cinnati (assuming the Reds have offered Bronson the Q.O.

Arroyo would also fit in perfectly, as we have one departing guitar player in Zito. Plugging in another guitar player ensures that the McCovey Cove Starship won't miss a beat.


------Side rant-------

In case you're wondering, the Giants (SO STUPIDLY) won 2-3 games more than they should've. Had they benched their starters and tanked, they'd have had a protected top 10 pick.

I will never in my life understand the benefit of winning any games in a lost season like 2013, especially when this scenario was at stake. They needed to take a page from other sports like the Indianapolis Colts in their "Suck For Luck" year.

I never want to see my team lose, but winning those extra 3-5 games that they did at the end of the season only hurt their situation this offseason and weakened their hand.

------End of rant-------

Notable Free Agents starting pitchers include:

Roy Halladay (37), Josh Johnson (30), Matt Garza (30), Ervin Santana (31), Ricky Nolasco (31), Chien-Ming Wang (34), Bronson Arroyo (37), Paul Maholm (32), AJ Burnett (37), Hiroki Kuroda (39)...

There are others, but they aren't worth really mentioning on this list.

Check out MLBTR 2014 FAs here.

As you can see, the list isn't extensive, and Lincecum will likely benefit from this. However, if the Giants are able to re-sign Timmy for a reasonable rate, plug an effective Yusmeiro Petit in as a 5th starter, and add someone like Bronson Arroyo, we'd be talking about a pretty solid rotation. Not amazing, but goddamned solid.

Josh Johnson also intrigues me, but the guy is a walking injury report, and his 2013 campaign in Toronto was horrendous in the starts that he did make. He had bone spurs removed from his forearm a week ago, and may be a good buy low opportunity for someone with a decent contingency plan (like Chad Gaudin or Ryan Vogelsong).

There are more questions than answers at this point in regard to the pitching staff, and it's going to take money to fix. Heath Hembree will likely be a part of the bullpen, and that will help, but we can't depend on the Eric Surkamps and Mike Kickhams of the world to step into the rotation anytime soon.

There's a gap in the starting pitching pipeline right now, and the best talent not named Cain or Bumgarner the Giants have right now isn't in the form of Major League ready starting pitching. They have 3 guys-- Kyle Crick, Clayton Blackburn, and Chris Stratton-- that all project to be good big leaguers, but they're just not quite ready. All have yet to pitch above High A San Jose, and are a year or two away.

When they are ready to pair with Cain and Bumgarner though, we're looking at a talented group. Until then we're in full-blown hole-filling mode.

As I said... more questions than answers this offseason.

Hitting rock bottom never looked so good

My all SF rally beer didn't work. :(

As I drink my sorrows away with my (supposed) rally/jinx beer that I purchased during the 7th inning of the Homer Bailey no-hitter, I can't help but try to cheer myself up. The first thing I did was post a video of Buster Posey's NLDS granny against Nutsac Latos. The next thing I did was think about how to cheer up the rest of Giantsland without blowing smoke up everyone's ass.

Welp. Here goes...

As I detailed in my last post, the NL West is weird and lame. If the D-Backs end up winning their rain delayed game against the Mets, we're 4 games back of 1st. If they lose, we're still just 3.5 games back.

A team playing this badly has no business being in 1st right now, this is true. But hey, it's attainable and it's right there for the taking. Arizona hasn't gotten a win out of a starting pitcher in like a month, and neither Colorado or San Diago have made their move. It's like a division stuck in a vacuum.

The schedule doesn't get any easier on paper. We play a pretty much all teams above or near .500 other than Milwaukee, the Mets, and Florida (who plays us tough). There are a ton of divisional games remaining, and those are all opportunities to get hot and take out the rest of the NL West, one foe at a time. Easier said than done, clearly.

The month of July brings some relief in the form of the all-star break, and 15 home games-- all 15 taking place after this Reds series (with only 6 road games mixed in).

There's also the matter of help on the way. The non-waiver trade deadline is arriving soon.

This team needs a couple days off and an infusion of talent. Is Alex Rios a savior? No, but not once this season has this team managed to run on all cylinders.

The starting pitching (minus Kickham) is trending in the right direction. Cain/Bum are pitching much better and even Zeets has only given up 7 earnies in his last 18 IP. Get Gaudin back, and we're looking at a decent staff.

Obviously, our hitters have to wake up and we need more consistent bullpen appearances, but these type of things just click randomly sometimes. We just need everyone to start getting on board at the same time. That's how teams get hot and make runs. We have 3 legitimate top 50 hitters, including the reigning MVP, and some other guys that can't possibly hit worse. Panda and Crawford are in season-worst slumps right now, they can only get better.

We've been down to the wire in the playoffs before, and won it all. Just remember.

You'll see, this team has its run left in them. And if you don't believe me, just go home and look at pictures of our two World Series trophies.

Vogelsong is scaring people

Welp. Ryan Vogelsong still isn't right.

It was another one of those starts on Thursday against Atlanta. You know, the one where he seems kinda okay through a few innings and then Bochy leaves him in 3 hitters too long and by that time he's given up 5 or 6 runs, and then he gets chainsaw angry, but it's too late, and we can't come back that one night?

*Big inhale after run-on sentence*

Yeah, it was another one of those starts for Vogey, who is beginning to scare people.

Forget Cain scaring people, and Lincecum doesn't surprise anyone anymore with whatever he does that day. Vogey is a huge part of this rotation, and it's hard to say whether he'll be able to recover.

I don't know whether to blame this on arm fatigue, pitching too many innings in the World Baseball Classic instead of easing into Spring Training, or whether he's just 35 years old and is having trouble locating his pitches. What I know, is that he's floating meatballs up there, and the carnivores in the batter's box are having their way with him.

He's now given up 9 dingers, has the worst ERA of all starting pitchers, and Hank Schulman offered another ugly stat as well:

"For the season, opponents are hitting .500 against him without a single strikeout in the fifth. He has allowed 16 of his 36 runs in that inning."

Sometimes players just get off to slow starts, and it happens to the best of them sometimes. However, Vogey's troubles at the end of last season were forgotten after he managed to get himself together for a nearly perfect postseason. Sad to say, but it's been a downward trend.

We can discount this as a slow start, or we can say, "Hey, something's not right here."

Something is certainly not right, and if I were to guess, it would be some sort of arm trouble-- perhaps arm fatigue due to age and miles, or perhaps something more sinister and latent like an injury of some sort. But that's just speculation by an idiot blogger.

Vogey is the type of competitor that would rather die than admit that something is wrong, and we all know he'll fight to the end, like the dogged gladiator he is. His story of perseverance is part of the reason he's so endeared himself to the Giants faithful.

Don't look at this table if you don't want to puke/cry. (Click to enlarge)

But alas, we're in this to win games and win championships, and despite the fact Lincecum and Cain have been inconsistent thus far, Vogelsong remains the number one concern of the rotation. His 70 baserunners in 39.1 innings and only 1 quality start out of 7 outings stick out like two sore thumbs. It's also scary that opponents are hitting nearly .370 on balls hit in play.

That .370 number is so high, that it suggests some degree of bad luck at play, but when you actually watch the hits being allowed, most are no doubters. It's very disheartening.

Should he have a start skipped? Probably.

But if we know Bruce Bochy (and we do), he's going to give his veterans enough rope to hang themselves (Lincecum anyone?), with enough left over to take the remaining rope and wrap it around their entire bodies so they can keep warm.

We'll see how it all shakes out, but with few (if any) rotational options in Fresno or in the bullpen, Vogelsong will need to dig himself out of this hole as soon as possible and begin to locate his pitches. If he can't, more drastic moves may need to be taken, and none of us want it to come to that.

Get well soon, Vogelstrong.

Giants dying to put it together

It's pretty clear to this guy that the 2013 Giants are another crazy squad full of comebacks and torture. There's just something in the water over at the Cove that makes this team simultaneously maddening and magical.

We're still in April, so that's why no one should be freaking out. We've seen this team go through pretty bad stretches of baseball en route to World Series Championships, and this is certainly close to being one of them.

Is it a frustrating stretch? Oh yeah. Blowing leads, coming back, and blowing them again really grinds everyones' gears. WTF is up with the bullpen? The Giants could and should be another 4 or 5 games up in the win column by my count, but you just have to remember that they have another 5 months to make the playoffs and get their shit together.

What I've learned after years of baseball is that you want your team to peak at the right time, because it means everything. I look at a team like the Atlanta Braves right now, who look pretty good... but it's April 29th, and we've won two championships peaking in late October. That's what it's about.


Cainer and Vogey. What's up?

Bafflingly bad performances by guys like Cain and Vogelsong are starting to concern a lot of people. I don't think it's time to freak out on Cain... I'm resisting the urge.

He's got an ERA damn near 7.00, but a truly respectable WHIP at 1.26, he's striking out guys at a higher rate than ever, and he's got the lowest BB/9 rate going of his career in the early going. So what's the problem?

Well, you know already... it's the longball.

Cain has already given up 6 HR this season (Vogelsong 7), and you've gotta hope that this trend slows down, or it's going to be a tough season.

While Vogelsong looks like he's in deeper mechanical trouble than Cain, he only gave up 17 roundtrippers in 2012, while Cain gave up 21. Disturbing about that 21 is that it was an increase of 12 (!!!) over 2011 when Cain only allowed 9 longballs.

Cain's fastball velocity isn't down, and the only real variance between '13 and '12 is that he's relying on his fastball a little bit more than his change and curve. 

The big numbers that jump out at you are Cain's HR/flyball ratio, which is double the 2012 value at 16.2%. It's a scary number, but it's probably something that he can correct as the season moves along. His velocity and overall pitching approach haven't changed, he's just thrown some lousy pitches up there that have gotten crushed. Correct that somehow, and he's back to the good Cain. Easier said that done.

Vogey on the other hand, is a bit more concerning. He'll look great for stretches of games, and then he just gets bombed a couple times. Unlike Cain, Vogey has seen an average drop of about one mile/hr on his fastball and slider.

His K/9 BB/9 and K/BB ratios are all in line with his career averages, but just like Cainer, that HR/Flyball ratio is absolutely brutal at 19.4% (+11% over '12).

Gentlemen? Keep the ball down.


Crawdaddy the All-Star?    

It could happen.

Remember the crazy all-star balloting last year when Giants fans went nuts (within the rules!) and nearly voted in the entire starting lineup? Well as I recall, Brandon Crawford came in 2nd or 3rd in the balloting. Obviously nuts, and anyone that considers themselves a true baseball fan shouldn't have voted for him once last season. He should've gotten 2 votes: one from his mother, and one from his wife. His own dad probably wouldn't have voted for him.

This year however, he's absolutely tearing it up. 

Along with gold glove caliber defense, we're getting an unreal slash line of .291/.361/.547 (OPS .907). Just so you can see how awesome that is, let me show you some other guys' OPS numbers:

Miguel Cabrera      .992
Paul Goldschmidt   .922 
Brandon Crawford .907 
Matt Kemp            .668 (ahahahhahahahahah)

So look, he's not just off to a good start, he's off to an amazing start. For a guy we begged to hit better than his weight for an average (.215+), he's showing us all that he is capable of great things.

Will he continue this tear? Unlikely. But he is clearly developing the elusive power stroke that we've seen random flashes of. He's maturing and becoming more disciplined. He's walking more, swinging at balls outside the strike zone less, and when he does swing at strikes, he's crushing them.

He has basically been the 2nd/3rd best NL shortstop thus far (behind Tulowitzki and Jean Segura... matter of opinion), and if he keeps this up, our crazy fan voters won't be wrong if he wins.


Marco! Marco??? Hey, why isn't he saying Scutaro??? 

Some people just get off to lousy starts, and I'm inclined to believe that this is the case with ol' Scoots. He's too good a hitter to scrap for that much longer.

You had to know you weren't getting the .362 hitter we saw last year after the trade. You tell yourself that and try not to get excited, but hey, we expected .300 or something, right?

There's rumblings that his back is bothering him, but we haven't really gotten a good answer. He's been a little dinged up since Spring, but we were led to believe he's healthy.

Whether he's in a funk or he's hurt, it's time for him to A) Get days off and let Nick Noonan play or B) Switch with Brandon Crawford in the order, so we can have a productive bat hitting in the no. 2 hole. This whole hitting .215 thing isn't going to fly.    
   

Forget logic, this is Game 7

From the moment we discover sports as children, we dream of this kind of situation. I remember the night before little league games, not being able to sleep as I fantasized about hitting game winning HRs and being mobbed by teammates. I remember shooting hoops in the driveway before dinner, narrating a farcical playoff moment out loud as a attempted a turnaround jumper. 

I usually missed the shot, lol.

At some point, we've probably all imagined a Game 7 winner take all contest-- either as a player or as a fan. There is nothing like it. The urgency is off the charts and the emotions are immeasurable. The rollercoaster effect of depression and elation is incomparable for those of us invested in our team, like we are.

For both the Giants and Cardinals, there were times this season when it was hard to imagine them managing to get to this point. Just 4 days ago, as the Giants lost another demoralizing game to go down 3-1 with one left to play on the road, I couldn't envision them doing what they've managed to do (AGAIN). I wanted it to happen of course, but the logical part of my brain prepared me for the ultimate disappointment of not making a comeback. 

I HATE that logical part of my brain. It sucks.

It mostly sucks because we had just seen our boys make a valiant comeback against the Reds on the road-- winning 3 tough games against a good team to advance. 

And of course, back from the dead, they do it AGAIN. 

This team has taken that little logical part of brain matter that we all have, surgically extracted it, and thrown it into a giant slurry grinder that makes wet cat food in cans. 

"You won't be needing that anymore, will YOU??"

I guess not.

The logical thing to think was that Tim Lincecum, relegated to the bullpen and seemingly thriving, would go all "vintage freak" on their asses and save us all. Unfortunately, he failed to pitch well in a game that was beyond important for both his career and the team. He wasn't good, and we've seen him be well... not good... most of the year. At the time, it seemed logical. Timmy was a big game pitcher, he'd build on his bullpen success and whip us all into a frenzy and make us think twice about supporting the expiration of his contract in 2013! Not so.

With our backs against the wall and a seemingly impossible scenario staring us in the face, we all turned to Barry Zito.

As I sprawled in my bed after that Game 4 loss, depressed and half-heartedly listening to the KNBR postgame show, I began to see my Twitter timeline filled with funny pictures of Zeets. A #RallyZito movement was underway. What had started as a funny and good-natured way to keep each other off the ledge, transformed into something bigger than the game itself.

That #RallyZito movement was something that I'll forever remember, because of the baggage attached to that Game 5 start. We all know the Zito story, and we even know how lame he was in his start against the Reds the series before. What transpired on that chilly St. Louis night by the most maligned Giant since Armando Benitez, was nothing short of heroic... and illogical.

It was probably the most incredible and gutty performance I've seen because of the demons he exorcised on the mound and the context that he accomplished it within. You could almost see pale spirits exiting Zito's body on the mound, as the weight began subsiding from his shoulders.

It was a moment that made me proud to be a Giants fan and it really made me happy for Zito himself. For all the work he puts in and all the hell that he's been through trying to live up to an impossible contract, that HAD to feel amazing for him. Sometimes confidence cures what ills you.

After a beastly, strikeout filled romp by a suddenly impenetrable VogelStrong in Game 6, he we are. 

We have our horse, Matt Cain on the mound. We have our crowd with its orange rally rags, and there is seemingly nothing that we would change about the scenario.

Of course, I wish that we were facing an emergency starter or something, but we aren't.

Kyle Lohse has had an inconsistent career, but he has had an incredible season, and has only given up 4 ER in 18 innings this postseason. He's from Chico, and the story would be just as great for the Cards, if they manage to win.

It's a matchup for the ages, and both teams will be up to the task. If we happen to lose, obviously I will be crushed. 

The way in which this team has rallied and banded together however, has made me proud regardless of the outcome. The ultimate goal is always to win the World Series, but win or lose, this team has had a successful season. 

I don't think that'll happen though. 

I feel like once again, this is some sort of crazy team of destiny that extends beyond the NLCS. All I know, is that tonight, throw logic out the window, because you aren't going to need it.

Go Giants!.

The NLCS: Fighting magic with magic

"Amazing that we've gotten to this point," say...

...both the Giants and Cardinals.

"There were a couple times that we looked dead in the water," say...

...both the Giants and Cardinals.

"But we love the makeup of this team, and we've done it before," say...

...both the Giants and Cardinals.

It's true. I can't think of two teams whose recent postseason exploits more closely resemble one another. One team was down 2-0 with the task of winning 3 in a row on the road, the other was down by 2 and down to its last strike on the road. Both teams pulled it out and now the battle of postseason magic will play out in the 2012 NLCS.

No offense to the American League and its fancy Prince Fielders and Bronx Bombers, but this NLCS is the hands down must watch series and WILL go down as one of the greatest playoff series of all time. You thought the Giants' NLDS series was torture? Wait'll you get a load of this one.

How improbable is it that the last two World Series champs will face off in this series? Most Cardinals fans had given up long ago this season. Trust me-- I know (my girlfriend is a Cards fan, more on that next post).

I've watched more Cardinal games than you, and heard waaaaayyyy more about them than I care to. That benefits me now as I size up our opponent heading into Sunday.

This is a very evenly matched pair of teams and both have the "it" factor I talk about. There's magic in both of them and both teams are laden with postseason heroes up and down the roster.

They've got the bigger sluggers, we have the better bullpen. We perhaps have the edge in the starting rotation now that Lincecum seems to be progressing up to the mean, but other than that, these teams match up very well.

The one thing that Cards fans will tell you is that they don't win many close games. They blow teams out early and hold on. Despite their recent postseason performances (and 2011's for that matter), they've struggled to reach their potential all season, despite a deadly lineup.

Conversely, you could say our lineup has overachieved and that our pitching has failed to live up to its ability. We've gotten the clutch hits we've needed and have overcome horrendous performances from Timmy all season to run away with the West.

You can certainly say that the NL Central was much tougher than the NL West-- a valid point. How then do you explain how the Cardinals struggled to land a secondary Wild Card berth when their only competition was the useless losing Dodgers and a surging Brewers team that had come back from like 233 games back?

Not to take anything away from what St. Louis has done in the playoffs this season, but they had a pretty disappointing season-- while I can say that in general, the Giants have had a successful 2012.

Granted, the Cards were without Chris Carpenter most of the season (until now) and are now without both Rafael Furcal and Lance Berkman. We'll see your injuries with the losses of Brian Wilson and Melky Cabrera.

Speaking of Carpenter-- what an absolute gamer. He had a rib removed to alleviate pressure on a nerve that affected his pitching arm. Once declared out for the season and potentially headed for retirement, he pulled something resembling a Ronnie Lott to get back on the field. Commendable.

FYI, that rib is now in a jar in his daughter's room.

The point of all this is that we're in an up and down series that will likely go the full seven games. In order for the Giants to win, they need to keep STL's sluggers in check early and prevent late inning magic by the likes of Allen Craig and David Freese (or Kozma... or Descalso... as the Nats found out).

If the Giants hit anywhere close to what they did in Games 4 and 5 in Cincinnatti, they win the series, no doubt. We all know we can't expect that to happen. We need all hands on deck to win this series, but we can take care of it.

Cain and Bumgarner need to get it together and Affeldt needs to be healthy. Other than that, I'm confident that we can take care of business. Never give up!

With my intimate knowledge of both teams, here's how I stack them up with letter grades below:

Prediction: Giants in 7

Overall Offense

Giants: B-
Cards: A

Offensive Power

Giants: C-
Cards: A-

Overall Defense

Giants: A-
Cards: B

Starting Pitching

Giants: A-
Cards: B+

Bullpen

Giants: B+
Cards: C+

Closer

Giants: B
Cards: A-

Bench

Giants: B
Cards: B-

Manager:

Giants: B+
Cards: C

Come-from-behind-ability

Giants: A-
Cards: B+

Bonus Category: Team Broadcasters

Giants: A+
Cards: D+