Giants dying to put it together

It's pretty clear to this guy that the 2013 Giants are another crazy squad full of comebacks and torture. There's just something in the water over at the Cove that makes this team simultaneously maddening and magical.

We're still in April, so that's why no one should be freaking out. We've seen this team go through pretty bad stretches of baseball en route to World Series Championships, and this is certainly close to being one of them.

Is it a frustrating stretch? Oh yeah. Blowing leads, coming back, and blowing them again really grinds everyones' gears. WTF is up with the bullpen? The Giants could and should be another 4 or 5 games up in the win column by my count, but you just have to remember that they have another 5 months to make the playoffs and get their shit together.

What I've learned after years of baseball is that you want your team to peak at the right time, because it means everything. I look at a team like the Atlanta Braves right now, who look pretty good... but it's April 29th, and we've won two championships peaking in late October. That's what it's about.


Cainer and Vogey. What's up?

Bafflingly bad performances by guys like Cain and Vogelsong are starting to concern a lot of people. I don't think it's time to freak out on Cain... I'm resisting the urge.

He's got an ERA damn near 7.00, but a truly respectable WHIP at 1.26, he's striking out guys at a higher rate than ever, and he's got the lowest BB/9 rate going of his career in the early going. So what's the problem?

Well, you know already... it's the longball.

Cain has already given up 6 HR this season (Vogelsong 7), and you've gotta hope that this trend slows down, or it's going to be a tough season.

While Vogelsong looks like he's in deeper mechanical trouble than Cain, he only gave up 17 roundtrippers in 2012, while Cain gave up 21. Disturbing about that 21 is that it was an increase of 12 (!!!) over 2011 when Cain only allowed 9 longballs.

Cain's fastball velocity isn't down, and the only real variance between '13 and '12 is that he's relying on his fastball a little bit more than his change and curve. 

The big numbers that jump out at you are Cain's HR/flyball ratio, which is double the 2012 value at 16.2%. It's a scary number, but it's probably something that he can correct as the season moves along. His velocity and overall pitching approach haven't changed, he's just thrown some lousy pitches up there that have gotten crushed. Correct that somehow, and he's back to the good Cain. Easier said that done.

Vogey on the other hand, is a bit more concerning. He'll look great for stretches of games, and then he just gets bombed a couple times. Unlike Cain, Vogey has seen an average drop of about one mile/hr on his fastball and slider.

His K/9 BB/9 and K/BB ratios are all in line with his career averages, but just like Cainer, that HR/Flyball ratio is absolutely brutal at 19.4% (+11% over '12).

Gentlemen? Keep the ball down.


Crawdaddy the All-Star?    

It could happen.

Remember the crazy all-star balloting last year when Giants fans went nuts (within the rules!) and nearly voted in the entire starting lineup? Well as I recall, Brandon Crawford came in 2nd or 3rd in the balloting. Obviously nuts, and anyone that considers themselves a true baseball fan shouldn't have voted for him once last season. He should've gotten 2 votes: one from his mother, and one from his wife. His own dad probably wouldn't have voted for him.

This year however, he's absolutely tearing it up. 

Along with gold glove caliber defense, we're getting an unreal slash line of .291/.361/.547 (OPS .907). Just so you can see how awesome that is, let me show you some other guys' OPS numbers:

Miguel Cabrera      .992
Paul Goldschmidt   .922 
Brandon Crawford .907 
Matt Kemp            .668 (ahahahhahahahahah)

So look, he's not just off to a good start, he's off to an amazing start. For a guy we begged to hit better than his weight for an average (.215+), he's showing us all that he is capable of great things.

Will he continue this tear? Unlikely. But he is clearly developing the elusive power stroke that we've seen random flashes of. He's maturing and becoming more disciplined. He's walking more, swinging at balls outside the strike zone less, and when he does swing at strikes, he's crushing them.

He has basically been the 2nd/3rd best NL shortstop thus far (behind Tulowitzki and Jean Segura... matter of opinion), and if he keeps this up, our crazy fan voters won't be wrong if he wins.


Marco! Marco??? Hey, why isn't he saying Scutaro??? 

Some people just get off to lousy starts, and I'm inclined to believe that this is the case with ol' Scoots. He's too good a hitter to scrap for that much longer.

You had to know you weren't getting the .362 hitter we saw last year after the trade. You tell yourself that and try not to get excited, but hey, we expected .300 or something, right?

There's rumblings that his back is bothering him, but we haven't really gotten a good answer. He's been a little dinged up since Spring, but we were led to believe he's healthy.

Whether he's in a funk or he's hurt, it's time for him to A) Get days off and let Nick Noonan play or B) Switch with Brandon Crawford in the order, so we can have a productive bat hitting in the no. 2 hole. This whole hitting .215 thing isn't going to fly.    
   

Non-stars the key to success down the stretch

There are no two ways about it, the remainder of the regular season is going to be difficult.

Sure there are nine games remaining against the Dodgers and six against Arizona remaining. There's that four game series against Atlanta at AT&T.

All tough.

The biggest enemies of success for the Giants however, are the Giants themselves.

Let's hope Scutaro stays red hot.

None of us should have concerns about the Poseys and Pences of the world. They're good hitters. Pablo is still not 100%, but he should be okay and should find his stride soon.

The real keys to success are the complementary parts of this roster-- the Brandons, Scutaro, Blanco, Pagan, Scutaro, etc. Them, and oh yeah, our suddenly dysfunctional bullpen.

Brandon Belt for instance, has enjoyed a massive resurgence in the last month or so. Since July 25, he's gone  28 for 74-- good for a .378 average. Even better, he's hitting an incredible .412 in the month of August with an OBP% over .400 and an OPS over 1.000. Pretty sweet for a dude who looked deader than a doornail during the span of June 24th to July 24th. For God's sake, he had only 13 hits in the entire month of July, the same number of hits he had during the past three series.

The other Brandon, Mr. Crawford, had a career-high 9 game hitting streak snapped on Friday. During that streak, he raked in a serious way-- to the tune of a .464 average. There's no coincidence that the Giants averaged nearly 7 runs a game during that streak.

Marco Scutaro has hit .333 with 18 RBIs since he joined the Giants. Angel Pagan has chipped in with a .323 average in his last 8 games.

With everything this team has gone through in the last week, it's truly important that these guys keep it going. They need to get on base for the Killer Ps (Panda, Posey, Pence), and Belt needs to keep collecting clutch hits hitting behind them. 

Prior to this season, we could depend on pitching and pray for one more run than our opponents. Now? Not so much.

Vogelsong is struggling over his past two outings. Lincecum and Zito have become totally unreliable. The closer situation is a mess. It's a fact of life right now for this team unfortunately. It's also exactly why all this team's moving parts need to operate in unison heading down the stretch. It's time to come together and step it up in the absence of their former #3 hitter.

They'll get their first real test Monday at Chavez Latrine. Beat LA.

Good news is, it's still May...

The bad news? We're not very good, and there isn't a lot to suggest that we'll get better.

Would Brian Wilson have given up a dong to Marco Scutaro to blow the game? Maybe. Maybe not.

Would we do better if our knee-jerk reactions to send Brandon Crawford down to Fresno came true? Maybe. Maybe not.

Would we have won a couple more games lately if Panda hadn't have gone on the DL or if we had Freddy Sanchez back and healthy? Maybe. Maybe not.

Even with Sandoval, Sanchez, and Wilson, there's just nothing there to suggest that we'd be a significantly better team.

It's so hard to be positive these days, what with the consistent defensive ineptitude and the offensive futility.

Do we have heart and scrap? Sure, but what good is effort when the result is constant frustration and missed opportunities?

The problem with this roster and with our minor leagues for that matter, is that there is no hope in sight. There's no Bryce Harper in Fresno or Richmond-- hell, there aren't even any Brandon Belts down there. 

Right now, the Giants are who they are, and who they are just isn't good enough. We've got a solid bullpen-- better than most of the league. We have a great starting rotation, despite Lincecum consistently pitching like a 5th starter rather than an ace. After that, you know, we're not good. The eight guys on the field, whomever they happen to be on a given day, are just not playoff caliber as a unit.

We have 3 above-average hitters (Sandoval, Posey, Cabrera), two starting caliber players (Pagan, Blanco), and the rest are AAA players. Say what you want about that statement, but the remainder or our hitters are borderline major league players and none are blue chip prospects. Belt, Crawford, Pill, Arias, Sanchez, Culberson, Schierholtz, Huff, Theriot, Burriss, Gillaspie... I mean, what do you expect from those guys?

Honestly.

I see exactly what you should see out of a lineup that is 38% (or at best 50%) reliable. It is just is what it is. Belt should be better than he is, but he's lost and nervous, same with Crawford. There's no real solution or explanation for their offensive struggles (and defensive struggles in regard to Crawford). Do you send them down so that they can play with less pressure and regain confidence? Who then takes their places? Are we then a better team?

There's simply no answer or solution, which is the most disheartening part about rooting for this particular team. We don't have the pieces to land a big player via trade, and when you look at 2013 free agents, the chance of landing the two biggest free agents to be, Josh Hamilton and Andre Ethier, the dream just dies. Our best chance to improve is to get Lincecum pitching up to his capabilities, get Sandoval back, get Buster's bat going consistently, and to play good defense.

What we've learned thus far is that we simply cannot depend on the development and success of Brandon Crawford or Brandon Belt-- the two biggest wild cards on this roster. With so much dead weight in the lineup and such awful defense, the best we can hope for is a .500 team, which is exactly what we have.

The good news is that it's only May, and it's a long season. A lot can change, and yet, a lot could stay the same. Let's hope for the best.

Roster reactions & a look at 2012

I have to say that for all the complaints we Giants fans may have from time to time, I cannot say that management is incompetent. Cheap? Sometimes. Gunshy of big free agents? Yes. But inept? Absolutely not. With the group that reported to Scottsdale this spring, I really believe the best 24 came back to The City with the team.

"But Dodgerhater, isn't it a 25 man roster, not a 24 man one?"

Yes, but you forgot about Zito.

:'-(

Other than that waste of money, management did the best possible things to put the Giants in a position to win (with current talent) and to lock up the future (Cain).



I am a bit surprised that they designated Whiteside for assignment and traded Chris Stewart. Many believe that Hector Sanchez is too raw behind the plate to be counted on to play there 2-3 times a week as Buster does first base duty or gets a day off-- but here we are, for better or for worse.

Hey, I say it's for the better! Based on the way the kid is hitting and the way he skipped through the minors in a Sandovalesque fashion, why in the hell isn't it better? This offense has been too sickly and bitch for too many years. Finally Sabean and Bochy came to an agreement that they needed every single offensive weapon possible on the 25 man roster come Opening Day, and that's what happened.

Eli Whiteside, Mike Fontenot, and Chris Stewart-- you're all good guys and I wish you the best, but the guys that replaced you are just better with the lumber.

In regard to Whiteside, I will miss you the most, with your fitting white hair, your Mississippi Delta accent, and your Led Zeppelin entrance music. You were like a character out of a John Grisham/William Faulker book and I will miss you a little bit. Even if you never play another game in the big leagues, you helped us win a ring, and no one can take that away-- same with Fontenot.

The other surprises to me were that both Brandon Belt AND Brett Pill made the roster. The Giants are now loaded with first basemen, and I don't know how everyone will get ABs.

You'd think Huff is the primary, right? But is on a short leash, so if he sucks, he sucks, and that's the end of him. Grab a significant piece of pine, Meat.

Then there's Belt-- another lefty-- who seemingly has no place to play. Of course then there is Posey, the righty, who we have heard, nearly ad nauseum, will play there about twice a week, probably against lefties, while Belt sits.

But wait! There's more!

Nate Schierholtz can't hit!

That means what I just wrote got simpler and was completely pointless in writing and this article just took you 20 seconds longer to read than it should have!

It's looking like Nate Schierholtz and his cannon are now riding the pine, and HUFF is the one playing the OF. Whoa.

Look, it scares me too, but Huff will be playing LF-- not RF like he embarrassingly attempted to do early last season. He's not going to win any gold gloves out there, but at least against right handers, he adds some badly needed power (hopefully) to a lineup that desperately needs it.

There are three main lineups that Bochy will use:

Lineup #1: Right-handed starter

1) CF Pagan (S)/Blanco (L)
2) RF Melky Cabrera (S)
3) 3B Pablo Sandoval(S)
4) C Buster Posey (R)
5) LF Aubrey Huff (L)
6) 1B Brandon Belt (L)
7) SS Brandon Crawford (L)
8) 2B Emmanuel Burriss (S)

Note* - When Freddy Sanchez comes back, he hits 7th and Crawford hits 8th. I may be wrong and Crawford hits 8th from the get-go, but does it really matter?

Lineup #2: Left-handed starter w/Posey catching

1) CF Pagan (S)/Blanco (L)
2) RF Melky Cabrera (S)
3) 3B Pablo Sandoval (S)
4) C Buster Posey (R)
5) LF Aubrey Huff (L)
6) 1B Brett Pill (L)
7) SS Brandon Crawford (L)
8) 2B Emmanuel Burriss (S)

Lineup #3: Left-handed starter w/Posey playing 1B

1) CF Pagan (S)/Blanco (L)
2) RF Melky Cabrera (S)
3) 3B Pablo Sandoval (S)
4) 1B Buster Posey (R)
5) LF Aubrey Huff (L)
6) C Hector Sanchez (S)
7) SS Brandon Crawford (L)
8) 2B Emmanuel Burriss (S)

*Note - Depending how Crawford is hitting lefties (.133 against LHP in '11), don't be surprised to see Ryan Theriot (R) play 2B, and slide the switch-hitting Burriss over to short.

A few notes about all this...

-- Good God, do we have a lot of switch hitters! Five to be exact, but that is still crazy! (Pagan, Cabrera, Sandoval, H. Sanchez, Burriss).

-- Looks like the only time that Schierholtz will start will be to play RF against a righty when Huff is struggling or needs a day off, sliding Melky over to left.

-- Expect Bochy to play late-inning musical outfield every day with Schierholtz. We're used to it by now. The names have changed, the concept hasn't. Nate comes in for Huff, plays right field, and Cabrera moves to left. It will be a daily occurrence.

-- Can Melky play RF at AT&T as well as Nate? Well he's going to get a crash course in weirdness right away, and I hope to God that he's taking line drives off the archways as we speak so that he gets a feel for the caroms that the ball takes. As for the wind and the bullpen mound... well that comes only with trial and error, bud.

As for covering Triples Alley with Pagan or Blanco, yes, he is fast and covers a lot of ground. I don't think Melky will have any trouble chasing down fly balls to the deepest part of the yard.

-- Brandon Crawford is really important to the every day success of this team. We know the kid can field, but can he hit his weight? He's listed as 215 lbs.

Based on his stellar spring (18-54, .333/.410/.556, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 7 BB), I'd say he's capable of hitting at least .250. That seems to be everyone's wish. All I read about is "If Crawford can only hit .250, they'll be okay..."

Based on how awful he was at the dish last year, .250 would be awesome, but let's raise the bar a little bit higher than that.

I believe Crawford's contributions with that bat are the difference between making the playoffs and not. It's that important.

-- Who will replace Zito when he inevitably sucks?

Eventually it will be either Eric Surkamp or Yadsl;fknc,i Petit. Surkamp had his Spring cut short when he strained the flexor tendon in his elbow about a week ago. That sounds like he won't be ready for a minimum of 3 weeks-- probably around the time that Zito has fallen to 0-3 with a 9.00.

Right now, the guy that is first in line is the healthy Yusmeiro Petit. I rather enjoy hitting random keys after the capital 'Y' in his name, but I looked up how to spell it anyway.

Petit, a former Diamondback, last pitched in the bigs in '09 with Arizona, and wound up with a 5.82 ERA. He apparently blew out his shoulder, wound up in Oaxaca pitching in front of donkey carts, then ended up back in Venezuela pitching in front of Socialists and Giants hitting instructor Hensley Meulens. The rest is history. Check out the whole story from Baggs here.

The guy has pitched well in Spring, so bottom line, with Vogelsong on the DL for a few weeks, Surkamp out for a few weeks, and Zito sucking more than usual, Yadlfncamds;' Petit may be making a start for the Gyros sooner rather than later.

-- Also noted in that Andrew Baggarly article at CSNBayArea.com is that one of the guys that Petit pitched against in the Venezuelan Winter League was none other than Gregor Blanco, the speedy outfielding surprise that made the roster.

I don't know much about the left-handed Blanco other than the guy is major steal threat and plays a great OF. Also, apparently his nickname is "Tiburon Blanco". And for the 3 of you that are new to California, that means "White Shark".

Get it together people.

With Angel Pagan sucking big time thus far as a Giant, not getting on base, and making us miss Andres Torres and his Puerto Rican porno walkup music, there is a growing contingent of people that believe Angel Pagan will be overtaken by Blanco sooner rather than later as the starting CF.

The contingent begins with the all-important Me, and also includes KNBR's Larry Krueger and apparently (but subtly) CSN Bay Area's Andrew Baggarly.

Blanco's career stats aren't a lot to go by, but he holds a career .358 on base percentage and has safely stolen 26 out of 35 bases. In the OF, he has 12 outfield assists versus only 4 errors. Hey, I'll take it.

I have minimal rational reasons for why I think Blanco will usurp Pagan's spot. I basically think Pagan sucks and is a 4th OF at best. I also think that Pagan's name is obnoxious. It's like, okay, you're an angel AND a pagan? Pick one or the other dude...


Obviously we can speculate all day about what will happen and who will be awesome or who will suck. We don't have all day. We have TV to watch and work to go to and food to eat. With that said, Opening Day couldn't have come soon enough, and I'm looking forward to another maddeningly amazing year of Giants baseball.

Ugh, Orlando Cabrera

Well, Sabean must've read the article I wrote 3 hours ago, because he didn't stand pat. Looks like he got the SS that everyone gets every trade deadline and someone else signs every winter to a one year deal... only to be traded again to a contender a few months later.


He's played everywhere else... why not San Francisco?

I guess one 59 year old Colombian SS helped us last year and we got a 58 year old Colombian to help us this year.

I sound bitter, I know, but I really can't help it. I wanted a REAL impact player to play short. I wanted Jose Reyes. I know it wasn't realistic, but I wanted him anyway.

Cabrera, who has now been traded for the 4th time and will be playing for his 9th team, is only MAYBE better than TeCrawfenot, and having a terrible year for the confusing Cleveland Indians. Honestly, he brings no real promise of a better tomorrow.

He's 36, is hitting just .244, and doesn't have nearly the clutch history that Edgar Renteria has.

It's one of those moves that I believe Sabean just made to make a move. It's more for the fans than the team on the field, and with jerks like me clamoring for huge moves, it doesn't surprise me.

It's possible that Cabrera's move to a team in a real pennant race might get his juices flowing, but those juices have been in decline since he left the Expos.
I hope he proves me wrong, but this is just a stupid move. On top of it, as I'm writing this, I hear that Thomas Neal is the guy we traded.

Was Neal disappointing and slow to develop? Yes, but in my opinion, the Indians just made out like complete thieves in this deal, and have a chance to get Neal on track to be the starting Major League OF that we all expected him to be.

I get making a move to shore up SS, but I just don't get this move.

Yes, I get that TeCrawfenot can't hit, but as of 2011, neither can Cabrera. The only explanation (baseball-wise) is that Cabrera has been a member of 6 playoff teams, won a World Series with Boston, and has had 163 playoff plate appearances.

But, by the same token, he's a .228 playoff hitter and has only hit over .300 in ONE out of the NINE playoff series he's taken part in ('04 ALCS w/BOS when they came back to beat NYY after being down 0-3). Even scarier is that in the lower pressure Divisional Series rounds, he's gone a combined 15-83 for a .181 career average.

Not only that, but Cabrera has grounded into 10 double plays in '11 while amassing 40 strikeouts versus only 13 walks on the year.

I really hate to run down the guy, because he's had a very respectable big league career, won a ring, and is one of only two Colombian MLB players (that I know of) in history, but it's kinda like... "Thanks, but I'll pass..."

Sabean cannot stand pat

I like the Beltran move, I really do. He's a real hitter, and he instantly made us better. I'm not going to buy a $35 #15 shirzey or anything, because it'll only get a few wears out of it before it's obsolete... I'm celebrating the move by praying for another.

Our catcher situation sucks, it really does... but there's not a lot that can be done. There's no significant upgrade available, and our pitching staff is doing well throwing to our no-hitting backup tandem of Whiteside and Stewart.

The glaring hole is at shortstop, where the sickening play continues.

The bluntly ugly truth of the matter is that Tejada sucks, Fontenot sucks, and Crawford can't hit.

Sorry. All good guys... maybe Crawford will be a serviceable starter someday, but if we're going to repeat as World Champs, this situation must be fixed.

Crawford must be sent back down. Sorry Stamos, you just haven't been able to adjust to big-league pitching as quickly as we'd all have liked. You'll get another shot in September, but if Burriss gets sent down, you need to too... neither of you are doing anything of note.


Secondly, if I see Mike Fontenot face just ONE MORE left-handed pitcher at ANY TIME, I am going to blow an effing head gasket on my truck and in my brain. In fact, as I'm writing this and looking up his splits, I don't want him facing righties either. How he looks so bad against southpaws on a regular basis (.256 avg) and somehow manages to hit .186 against righties as a full time lefty absolutely boggles my mind.

The man needs to be a pinch hitter and emergency infielder, and THAT's it.

Same with Tejada, the man is a backup at best, and I can't take it anymore.

I know our big deal was Beltran and that the Mets say that they're not looking to move Jose Reyes, but I believe now more than ever, that Sabean can't give up on getting him out of Queens forever.

If the Mets think they can keep him, they're mistaken. They're broke and in disarray. The Giants are one of the teams that can actually pay him long term if they so choose, especially with Rowand's disgraceful contract expiring after next season, Huff's contract expiring after next year, and Zito's albatross expiring after '13.

With all the success the Giants have had recently and the prime pitching staff they have assembled comes in gobs of money. They're not as rich as you think because of unfair revenue sharing and AT&T annual mortgage payments, but they're still doing as well as they ever have.

I know the urge is to keep the farm system intact and keep it rolling into the future, but the truth of the matter is that after Zack Wheeler, the desirable and/or blue chip prospect pool declined significantly.

There is no more Bumgarner or Posey, no Belt or Wheeler down there anymore.

There's speedy and impressive OF Gary Brown, a couple above-average hitting catchers, big hitting 27 year old 1B Brett Pill, a couple under-performing OFs named Neal and Kieschnick, and a surprising lefty starter named Eric Surkamp in AA-Richmond who has 140K's in 114 innings with an ERA around 2.00. And of course the typical list of middle infielders with good gloves and no bats (Adrianza, Culberson, Crawford, Noonan).

Honestly, that's about it right now. The minors ain't what they used to be because we've already harvested our crop down on the farm and sold off a lot of the rest of it.

This is why I say we go for it.

We're already better than we were at this time last season, and we somehow won it all. Filling the gaping hole at short with Reyes, and paying him long-term sounds crazy, but it is the best possible solution to our current problem of TeCrawfenot stinking it up at SS.


Check out Croix de Candlestick's workup on Eric Surkamp before this season started. He was ahead of the curve on the lefty.

There's enough to get a Reyes deal done but barely. They'll want Belt or Jonathan Sanchez, and surely that's in addition to Gary Brown and a lower level prospect like Crawford.

I say do it any way you can without giving up Belt. Do it and do it yesterday, because we have the unique opportunity to win it all again, something that hasn't happened in quite a while.

Lincecum and Cain won't be in their mid 20s forever. The time is now! It can be done without mortgaging the future, especially with an interesting crop of free agents available next offseason (Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, Reyes, Beltran).

Anyway, sorry about this rambling rant, but I can't rest knowing that Sabean didn't take his best shot at Reyes and a back to back championship.