San Francisco Giants dynasty status four wins away

How did we get here?


I'm not sure I can answer without shaking my head incredulously and rambling uncontrollably. I'm not sure if the Giants themselves can answer that question. Although the simple answer may just be "Champion Blood".


To put it more simply, they just have "it".


"It" could mean anything. Difficult to define, but you know it when you have it. In the Giants' case you've got a great mix of players-- many of whom have won a World Series in San Francisco before. You have an excellent, and successful coaching staff-- one of the best in baseball. You've got a home field advantage, chemistry, an electric atmosphere, and a little bit of luck. It's in many ways, a perfect storm.


Kansas City may have "it" too though. They don't have the experience, the coaching staff, the big names, or the success. What they do have, however, is an exceptional mix of young players, who literally don't know any differently-- which could be a huge advantage. Fearlessness is something is to be feared by an opponent.


Furthermore, KC's style of play is conducive to winning close games-- much like the Giants. Bunts, stolen bases, hit & runs and the like all put pressure on defenses, on pitchers, catchers, and everyone else.


A single by Lorenzo Cain or Jerrod Dyson is more than a single. That single has the potential to take scoring position by force. Any further hits have the potential of driving in a run when a similar hit would only move most runners up. Couple that with a nasty bullpen, excellent defense, and timely hitting... well... the Royals start sounding a bit like the Giants.


As similar as these teams are in some facets, the Giants have a distinct advantage overall.


The advantage isn't about Bumgarner or Posey. This advantage isn't an intangible such as experience or chemistry. In fact, it has nothing to do with players at all.


The Giants' most significant advantage over the Kansas City Royals is Manager Bruce Bochy.


If you're reading this, you know I'm right. You've seen it, just like I have. You saw Bochy's steady calloused hand guide this mess of ship with a scurvy-afflicted crew and tattered sails straight into the World Series.


When this team started taking on water halfway through the season, his only response was, "Steady as she goes."

When people started jumping overboard and giving up. He didn't flinch.

Instead, he found a way to plug the holes with a Petit, a Peavy and a Panik, and made it into the Wild Card round to face Pittsburgh-- doing so without Matt Cain and Angel Pagan. He did so saddled with an ineffective Tim Lincecum, an injured Mike Morse, and Travis Ishikawa playing left field.

Even with this seemingly desperate situation at hand, his low, gravelly vocal chords barked out,  

"FULL STEAM AHEAD!"


And they haven't looked back.


After distinctly outmaneuvering and carving up inexperienced ex-Giants Matt Williams and Mike Matheny in the NLDS and NLCS respectively, the Giants' fearless old captain has Ned Yost squarely in his sights.


People who know things about baseball know that the Royals have accomplished what they have at times in spite of Ned Yost, not because of him.


Think of how we got here in the first place. Ishikawa hits a HR off of young starter Michael Wacha, who never should have been put in the game by Mike Matheny. Bochy never makes that move in a hundred years.


Well Yost made the same boneheaded move earlier in the playoffs with his young starter Yordano Ventura, who'd never made a bullpen appearance and was pitching on two days rest.


Again, the Royals are here in spite of Ned Yost.


I'm not going to sit here are tell you he's the worst manager ever and that he's useless. His players love playing for him, and his aggressive NL-style small ball parade has been successful.


I just know that Bochy knows what he's doing, and nearly everything he touches in the postseason turns to gold.


This will be the biggest difference in this series, and you would have a helluva time trying to prove me otherwise. With this unthinkable third World Series on the horizon getting closer and into view, the Giants have the Royals exactly where they want them. Forget the numbers, forget the talking heads. Remember where this team has been, and where you know they're going.

They're about to pull into port and raise that third flag; he flag of the Giants Dynasty.


The Giants didn't come this far to lose, and they're not going to. We have that Champion's Blood running through us, so let's saddle it the hell up. We're burnin' it down.

Giants "House Money" run boggles the mind, makes me happy

People will ask me in passing, "Getting nervous for tonight?" or "This must be nerve-wracking. Isn't it crazy?"






I've finally come to grips with my actual feelings recently, and they're not what I usually expect to happen.






Over the years, I've driven myself to tears and even to dry heaving over playoff sports. You could say I'm pretty into it. This year though, there's something different.


That feeling is, I'm just happy to be here, and I'm enjoying it, win or lose.






Obviously I want them to win the World Series, and I'd be disappointed if they didn't, but honestly, this most recent "even year" run is so unexpectedly awesome, that I'm happy no matter what. It's sort of the difference between the 2010 and 2012 title runs. With the first one, I was a nervous wreck and could hardly be around other people, followed with the euphoria and disbelief of victory being one of the best feelings I've ever experienced.






The '12 World Series? Whole 'nother ballgame. I enjoyed that one so much more while it was happening, because in effect, we were playing with house money.


I could already die a happy man after 2010, so 2012 was just gravy on this magnificently unexpected train to baseball immortality.






So you can imagine that this trend has continued for me-- as strange as that may seem.




No one, absolutely no one in their right mind thought that this particular Giants team would be 2 wins away from the World Series during the Great Depression they put us all through this season. It was such a low point of such sickening losing, that I almost just wanted the season to end. We all did. It was so depressing.






How could a team go from so good, to so horrific, to magically successful all in one season? It all defies logic, and because it makes no sense that we're here, I'm enjoying every bit of it.




I can't help thinking though about how much more nervous I should be; how I should be more upset when the ball doesn't bounce our way. Why aren't I a basket case like I used to be?




The answer is simple: we weren't supposed to be here.




Not only that, but we aren't beloved underdogs like the Royals either. America is soooooo over us. Luckily though, America is even more over the Cardinals, so I think people root for us by default.


But come Series time, America is rooting for those underdog Royals, or possibly Orioles, if they pull off the unthinkable. We're no longer cute and intriguing underdogs. We're weirdly successful and confusing to the mind.




We're the quirky, socially awkward team that's never been good enough on paper, but continue to run said paper through the shredder, then make accidental recycled works of art that sell for millions.


That's why I'm having such a good time. We're on the verge of creating another one of those accidental recycled masterpieces out of the paper we never look good enough on.


Dealer, let's let it ride. We're playing with house money.




Thoughts and musings


LOL Dodgers!




Seriously! How great was it when they lost? I was almost more excited about the Dodgers losing than the Giants beating the Nats. It was amazing.


Part of being "The Dodgerhater" means that those bastards winning the World Series is the worst possible thing ever-- similar to the feeling I got when the Seajerks beat the Niners en route to their Superbowl win. Damn you Broncos. Damn you for losing.




But I digress.




There's nothing better than the failure of such a star-studded group over overpaid a-holes. It damn
near brings a tear to my eye, it's so beautiful. Thank you Cardinals, thank you for that.




Also, thank you for Randy Choate's poor throw to first base.




Also, thank you for Mike Matheny's questionable managing decisions with pitchers.


----------------------------------------------------------------------


Bruce Bochy has apparently caught Mathenyitis, because he too has made some questionable pitching moves. You know, with the Stricklands, and the Romos and such.




My question isn't so much to do with those things, but WHY ARE TIM LINCECUM AND YUSMEIRO PETIT ON THE NLCS ROSTER IF THEY'RE NEVER GOING TO PITCH?


Lincecum, I get. He's a liability. Fine, don't put him in the game. But then why is a rookie who never pitched in Fresno getting the call? Why is Lincecum on the roster instead of oh, I don't know, SOMEONE WHO WILL PLAY?




It's truly bizarre to me.




Also, can we get Petit into the game? The guy has been nails, and he hasn't even been seen in the bullpen in Christ knows how long. What is going on here? Give me Petit after the starter gets the hook, and save Javy Lopez and Affeldt for lefties later on in the game. It's just plain weird.




Long series though. We'll see how it goes. Just an interesting use of personnel.




I won't question Bochy anymore though. If there's anyone who could turn Joe Dirt's lucky meteor into an actual meteor, it would be him.


PS: Joe Dirt's "lucky meteor" wasn't actually a meteor.

Giant pitching questions this offseason

Firstly, I apologize for not writing much in the waning moments of the 2013 season. It just got too depressing, too frustrating, and the same issues were being discussed ad nauseum by every source and blog between here and Timbuktu (which is in Mali, in case you're wondering). Mali is the same place that "Would Be" Champions shirts get sent. Even they are discussing whether the Giants will re-sign Tim Lincecum, while clad in 2007 Rockies World Series Champions shirts.

The pitching issues facing the Giants following an embarrassing World Series defense-- if you call what they did in 2013 defending a championship-- are long and well-documented. But, let's do it again, just for old time's sake.

Under club control with buyouts

Barry Zito ($7MM buyout)
Ryan Vogelsong ($6.5MM club option w/$300k buyout)

Unrestricted FAs

Chad Gaudin
Javier Lopez
Tim Lincecum



"Analysis" (Look at me, I"m a blog analyst! I think I'm cool!)

To me, Zito is gone; he just has to be. He had his sendoff, he got his curtain calls, and we had the lovefest. Giants fans are the most sentimental in baseball, and that's fine. I love being part of such a loving group of fans. But let's be real. Enough is enough with Zeets. He's not good, he never really was, and yes we appreciate the great performances in the 2012 postseason. I wish him the best, but it can no longer be on my team as a player. I'd welcome him to the coaching staff.

Vogelsong is an interesting case. He showed signs after his return from injury that he was capable of being a starting pitcher. But he also showed some signs that he was the horrendous first half pitcher in 2013 during the back stretch. I know he's a stubborn, chainsaw-angry, motivated son of a bitch, so I'm willing to give him another shot if I'm Brian Sabean. However, I buy him out of his deal at $300k, and say, "Look man, we like you here, and we don't think you're finished, but based on last year, we can't justify $6.5 mil. We'll offer you the $300k, plus a base of $2 million, and we'll incentivize (is that a word?) the shit out of your contract. Cool? Now excuse me while I answer my Moto Razr flip phone."

If Vogey says no, then I wish him the best as well. He's a good dude, a better story, and was an inspiration.

Chad "Grope-din" is a guy I'd like back. Assuming this whole "groped a woman on a gurney at 4am in a Las Vegas hospital" thing was a misunderstanding-- or rather there was a better explanation than him being absolutely shitfaced and a complete scumbag, then I'd like him back.

Gaudin was an invaluable part of the Giants' staff last season, and kept things from getting completely "Houston Astros bad" when Vogelsong went down. That of course weakened the bullpen, but his versatility was a necessity in 2013. A 2-3 year deal in the $10MM range isn't out of the question, and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets way more from another desperate team. He was obviously fatigued from all the extra groping innings that piled up on his arm, and is better suited as a long man in the pen and part time swingman starter. Regardless, he's a helpful piece, and I'd like him back.

Javier Lopez is an absolute necessity to be back. He sported better numbers than 2012 and shows no signs of slowing down-- especially against lefties. That's his job, he does it well, and a raise from the $4.25MM he made in 2013 is certainly warranted. If I'm Lopez, I look at the $5MM Affeldt is guaranteed through 2015 and say, "I'll have what he's having, plus a full tank of gas, a bloomin' onion from Outback with extra sauce MIND YOU. I'M TIRED OF RUNNING OUT OF BLOOMIN' ONION SAUCE."

Pay the man.

And now to Timmy.

I'm not going to go through why we like Lincecum, we all know his history with the team. As Tim McGraw might've said, "We like him, we love him, and some of us want some more of him."

Unlike Tim McGraw in his song about a hot chick, Giants brass and fans are a bit divided on whether bringing back Lincecum is the correct move.

He showed signs of life in 2013 after a 2012 regular season that could be described nicely as embarrassing. Still, he finished with a 4.37 ERA while making $22 million last year. Among the 79 qualified starters last year, that ERA mark is tied with Wily Peralta of the Brewers for 11th worst in baseball. If you're into WAR, which I'm not, he placed 16th in the league at 1.6 games above average. He walked people at the 10th highest rate in baseball, and his overall numbers are just hit and miss-- just like his starts.

I say he's all even-steven with the Giants when you think big picture. He outperformed small salaries early in his career and underperformed with big salaries recently. He won 2 CYs, 2 Championships, threw a no-no, and if this is the last we see of him, I'm okay with that.

But, if he's willing to be reasonable about his value and accept a deal in the neighborhood of $6-8MM a year for 2-3 years with incentives, then I'm fine with having him back.

Anything more than that, and he can go back home to Seattle and toss fish around with Pete Carroll in the rain.

I hate the Seahawks.

Pitching staff big picture

Beyond Cain and Bumgarner, the future is murky.

Assuming Zito and Vogelsong are not back, and the potential departure of Lincecum, we're talking about replacing 60% of the rotation-- and possibly needing to place its insurance policy, Chad Gaudin.

Sabean has some work to do, and I just hope this team doesn't have to overpay for pitching in some sick Zito-like scenario just to plug a couple holes.

With its present outstanding questions, there's no way this team can be considered a World Series contender. If Vogey, Timmy, Gaudin, and Lopez all return, and someone like Petit gets a shot at the rotation, we're basically the same as last year.

And last year, we were terrible.

Let's not get hung up on names and remember that the goal is improve from year to year. Unfortunately, that's not easy, especially when you don't have Magic Johnson Guggenheim Time Warner Cable money to blow on expensive booze and unnecessary shiny things that break after a year of regular use-- like a Jaguar with 80,000 miles on it.

Free Agents aren't abundant this year, and the good ones (including Lincecum) will receive the dreaded "qualifying offer". Teams like the Giants are able to offer its FAs a Q.O., which is an average of the 125 top salaries in baseball-- almost like the NFL's "Franchise Tag". This season it works out to around $14MM.

If a team thinks it'll lose an FA and is okay with the possibility of that player accepting the 1 year, $14MM deal, then the team that signs said player will forfeit their 1st round pick (unless they have a top 10 pick), in which case they forfeit their 2nd rounder. The team that lost the FA then receives a "sandwich pick" in between rounds 1 and 2.

This may work to the Giants' advantage if they lose Lincecum to another team after offering him the QA. However, by the Giants stupidly winning games at the end of the season (I blame management), they are slated to have the 14th pick in the draft, which is unprotected.


If the Giants sign someone like, let's say, Bronson Arroyo, who always kills us and would put up great numbers in a big ballpark like AT&T, the Giants will lose their 1st rounder to Cin
cinnati (assuming the Reds have offered Bronson the Q.O.

Arroyo would also fit in perfectly, as we have one departing guitar player in Zito. Plugging in another guitar player ensures that the McCovey Cove Starship won't miss a beat.


------Side rant-------

In case you're wondering, the Giants (SO STUPIDLY) won 2-3 games more than they should've. Had they benched their starters and tanked, they'd have had a protected top 10 pick.

I will never in my life understand the benefit of winning any games in a lost season like 2013, especially when this scenario was at stake. They needed to take a page from other sports like the Indianapolis Colts in their "Suck For Luck" year.

I never want to see my team lose, but winning those extra 3-5 games that they did at the end of the season only hurt their situation this offseason and weakened their hand.

------End of rant-------

Notable Free Agents starting pitchers include:

Roy Halladay (37), Josh Johnson (30), Matt Garza (30), Ervin Santana (31), Ricky Nolasco (31), Chien-Ming Wang (34), Bronson Arroyo (37), Paul Maholm (32), AJ Burnett (37), Hiroki Kuroda (39)...

There are others, but they aren't worth really mentioning on this list.

Check out MLBTR 2014 FAs here.

As you can see, the list isn't extensive, and Lincecum will likely benefit from this. However, if the Giants are able to re-sign Timmy for a reasonable rate, plug an effective Yusmeiro Petit in as a 5th starter, and add someone like Bronson Arroyo, we'd be talking about a pretty solid rotation. Not amazing, but goddamned solid.

Josh Johnson also intrigues me, but the guy is a walking injury report, and his 2013 campaign in Toronto was horrendous in the starts that he did make. He had bone spurs removed from his forearm a week ago, and may be a good buy low opportunity for someone with a decent contingency plan (like Chad Gaudin or Ryan Vogelsong).

There are more questions than answers at this point in regard to the pitching staff, and it's going to take money to fix. Heath Hembree will likely be a part of the bullpen, and that will help, but we can't depend on the Eric Surkamps and Mike Kickhams of the world to step into the rotation anytime soon.

There's a gap in the starting pitching pipeline right now, and the best talent not named Cain or Bumgarner the Giants have right now isn't in the form of Major League ready starting pitching. They have 3 guys-- Kyle Crick, Clayton Blackburn, and Chris Stratton-- that all project to be good big leaguers, but they're just not quite ready. All have yet to pitch above High A San Jose, and are a year or two away.

When they are ready to pair with Cain and Bumgarner though, we're looking at a talented group. Until then we're in full-blown hole-filling mode.

As I said... more questions than answers this offseason.

Roster reactions & a look at 2012

I have to say that for all the complaints we Giants fans may have from time to time, I cannot say that management is incompetent. Cheap? Sometimes. Gunshy of big free agents? Yes. But inept? Absolutely not. With the group that reported to Scottsdale this spring, I really believe the best 24 came back to The City with the team.

"But Dodgerhater, isn't it a 25 man roster, not a 24 man one?"

Yes, but you forgot about Zito.

:'-(

Other than that waste of money, management did the best possible things to put the Giants in a position to win (with current talent) and to lock up the future (Cain).



I am a bit surprised that they designated Whiteside for assignment and traded Chris Stewart. Many believe that Hector Sanchez is too raw behind the plate to be counted on to play there 2-3 times a week as Buster does first base duty or gets a day off-- but here we are, for better or for worse.

Hey, I say it's for the better! Based on the way the kid is hitting and the way he skipped through the minors in a Sandovalesque fashion, why in the hell isn't it better? This offense has been too sickly and bitch for too many years. Finally Sabean and Bochy came to an agreement that they needed every single offensive weapon possible on the 25 man roster come Opening Day, and that's what happened.

Eli Whiteside, Mike Fontenot, and Chris Stewart-- you're all good guys and I wish you the best, but the guys that replaced you are just better with the lumber.

In regard to Whiteside, I will miss you the most, with your fitting white hair, your Mississippi Delta accent, and your Led Zeppelin entrance music. You were like a character out of a John Grisham/William Faulker book and I will miss you a little bit. Even if you never play another game in the big leagues, you helped us win a ring, and no one can take that away-- same with Fontenot.

The other surprises to me were that both Brandon Belt AND Brett Pill made the roster. The Giants are now loaded with first basemen, and I don't know how everyone will get ABs.

You'd think Huff is the primary, right? But is on a short leash, so if he sucks, he sucks, and that's the end of him. Grab a significant piece of pine, Meat.

Then there's Belt-- another lefty-- who seemingly has no place to play. Of course then there is Posey, the righty, who we have heard, nearly ad nauseum, will play there about twice a week, probably against lefties, while Belt sits.

But wait! There's more!

Nate Schierholtz can't hit!

That means what I just wrote got simpler and was completely pointless in writing and this article just took you 20 seconds longer to read than it should have!

It's looking like Nate Schierholtz and his cannon are now riding the pine, and HUFF is the one playing the OF. Whoa.

Look, it scares me too, but Huff will be playing LF-- not RF like he embarrassingly attempted to do early last season. He's not going to win any gold gloves out there, but at least against right handers, he adds some badly needed power (hopefully) to a lineup that desperately needs it.

There are three main lineups that Bochy will use:

Lineup #1: Right-handed starter

1) CF Pagan (S)/Blanco (L)
2) RF Melky Cabrera (S)
3) 3B Pablo Sandoval(S)
4) C Buster Posey (R)
5) LF Aubrey Huff (L)
6) 1B Brandon Belt (L)
7) SS Brandon Crawford (L)
8) 2B Emmanuel Burriss (S)

Note* - When Freddy Sanchez comes back, he hits 7th and Crawford hits 8th. I may be wrong and Crawford hits 8th from the get-go, but does it really matter?

Lineup #2: Left-handed starter w/Posey catching

1) CF Pagan (S)/Blanco (L)
2) RF Melky Cabrera (S)
3) 3B Pablo Sandoval (S)
4) C Buster Posey (R)
5) LF Aubrey Huff (L)
6) 1B Brett Pill (L)
7) SS Brandon Crawford (L)
8) 2B Emmanuel Burriss (S)

Lineup #3: Left-handed starter w/Posey playing 1B

1) CF Pagan (S)/Blanco (L)
2) RF Melky Cabrera (S)
3) 3B Pablo Sandoval (S)
4) 1B Buster Posey (R)
5) LF Aubrey Huff (L)
6) C Hector Sanchez (S)
7) SS Brandon Crawford (L)
8) 2B Emmanuel Burriss (S)

*Note - Depending how Crawford is hitting lefties (.133 against LHP in '11), don't be surprised to see Ryan Theriot (R) play 2B, and slide the switch-hitting Burriss over to short.

A few notes about all this...

-- Good God, do we have a lot of switch hitters! Five to be exact, but that is still crazy! (Pagan, Cabrera, Sandoval, H. Sanchez, Burriss).

-- Looks like the only time that Schierholtz will start will be to play RF against a righty when Huff is struggling or needs a day off, sliding Melky over to left.

-- Expect Bochy to play late-inning musical outfield every day with Schierholtz. We're used to it by now. The names have changed, the concept hasn't. Nate comes in for Huff, plays right field, and Cabrera moves to left. It will be a daily occurrence.

-- Can Melky play RF at AT&T as well as Nate? Well he's going to get a crash course in weirdness right away, and I hope to God that he's taking line drives off the archways as we speak so that he gets a feel for the caroms that the ball takes. As for the wind and the bullpen mound... well that comes only with trial and error, bud.

As for covering Triples Alley with Pagan or Blanco, yes, he is fast and covers a lot of ground. I don't think Melky will have any trouble chasing down fly balls to the deepest part of the yard.

-- Brandon Crawford is really important to the every day success of this team. We know the kid can field, but can he hit his weight? He's listed as 215 lbs.

Based on his stellar spring (18-54, .333/.410/.556, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 7 BB), I'd say he's capable of hitting at least .250. That seems to be everyone's wish. All I read about is "If Crawford can only hit .250, they'll be okay..."

Based on how awful he was at the dish last year, .250 would be awesome, but let's raise the bar a little bit higher than that.

I believe Crawford's contributions with that bat are the difference between making the playoffs and not. It's that important.

-- Who will replace Zito when he inevitably sucks?

Eventually it will be either Eric Surkamp or Yadsl;fknc,i Petit. Surkamp had his Spring cut short when he strained the flexor tendon in his elbow about a week ago. That sounds like he won't be ready for a minimum of 3 weeks-- probably around the time that Zito has fallen to 0-3 with a 9.00.

Right now, the guy that is first in line is the healthy Yusmeiro Petit. I rather enjoy hitting random keys after the capital 'Y' in his name, but I looked up how to spell it anyway.

Petit, a former Diamondback, last pitched in the bigs in '09 with Arizona, and wound up with a 5.82 ERA. He apparently blew out his shoulder, wound up in Oaxaca pitching in front of donkey carts, then ended up back in Venezuela pitching in front of Socialists and Giants hitting instructor Hensley Meulens. The rest is history. Check out the whole story from Baggs here.

The guy has pitched well in Spring, so bottom line, with Vogelsong on the DL for a few weeks, Surkamp out for a few weeks, and Zito sucking more than usual, Yadlfncamds;' Petit may be making a start for the Gyros sooner rather than later.

-- Also noted in that Andrew Baggarly article at CSNBayArea.com is that one of the guys that Petit pitched against in the Venezuelan Winter League was none other than Gregor Blanco, the speedy outfielding surprise that made the roster.

I don't know much about the left-handed Blanco other than the guy is major steal threat and plays a great OF. Also, apparently his nickname is "Tiburon Blanco". And for the 3 of you that are new to California, that means "White Shark".

Get it together people.

With Angel Pagan sucking big time thus far as a Giant, not getting on base, and making us miss Andres Torres and his Puerto Rican porno walkup music, there is a growing contingent of people that believe Angel Pagan will be overtaken by Blanco sooner rather than later as the starting CF.

The contingent begins with the all-important Me, and also includes KNBR's Larry Krueger and apparently (but subtly) CSN Bay Area's Andrew Baggarly.

Blanco's career stats aren't a lot to go by, but he holds a career .358 on base percentage and has safely stolen 26 out of 35 bases. In the OF, he has 12 outfield assists versus only 4 errors. Hey, I'll take it.

I have minimal rational reasons for why I think Blanco will usurp Pagan's spot. I basically think Pagan sucks and is a 4th OF at best. I also think that Pagan's name is obnoxious. It's like, okay, you're an angel AND a pagan? Pick one or the other dude...


Obviously we can speculate all day about what will happen and who will be awesome or who will suck. We don't have all day. We have TV to watch and work to go to and food to eat. With that said, Opening Day couldn't have come soon enough, and I'm looking forward to another maddeningly amazing year of Giants baseball.