Posey for ROY: A Closer Look

Yeaaaah, I'm gonna have to go ahead and ask baseball writers to... yeah... come in on Saturday... and do a little research. Yeaaaah. Thanks!

Well. You heard Lumberg. It's time for the absurdly biased sports media to pay attention not only to the Giants and the NL West race, but to Buster Posey and his incredible season.

I know he doesn't look like Dwight Howard in a baseball uniform or play in the Eastern Time Zone. I know he doesn't act like Kenny Powers, and he doesn't have sideburns like Joe Mauer. But Good Lord, if we're talking about the rookie of the year race and whether or not Buster Posey is a future perennial all-star, there's no argument to the contrary.

Since the moment the Giants drafted this guy, we've been salivating over his skill set and potential. Rightfully so apparently. His polished approach at the plate and soft hands behind it put him in such elite company already--- in his first year--- that you'd be hard-pressed to find more than a handful of catchers or young players that you'd rather have instead of Posey.

Let's just throw out a quick list, just for fun, of the top catchers in the world.

Joe Mauer
Brian McCann
Victor Martinez
Kurt Suzuki
Jorge Posada
Mike Napoli
Yadier Molina
Carlos Ruiz
Matt Wieters
Miguel Montero
Geovany Soto

That's it. Seriously. That is the list of desirable catchers in the entire league. Is that ridiculous or what?

--Mauer and McCann are in a class of their own. They are truly the two best in baseball right now.

--Suzuki of the A's is a great player, but certainly not in the class of the first two, and is closer to Yadier Molina in ability.

--Napoli, Martinez, and Posada can hit, but can't throw anyone out to save their lives.

--Wieters and Soto are slow to develop and are inconsistent despite their talent.

Honestly? I put Posey on that list at number 3. Right here, right now, as a rookie, Buster is only behind MVP Joe Mauer and all-star Brian McCann. Simply awe inspiring.

As for Buster's rookie of the year competition, it really comes down to one guy: Jason Heyward.

I'm as big a Heyward fan as any. Like Posey, he too is a Georgia boy, a fan favorite, and has drool-inducing physical skills and talent. There is no doubt that Heyward will be very good for a very long time. He respects history and has a high baseball IQ, plays the game the right way, isn't cocky or flashy, and is generally the prototype for a baseball player.

He garnered 10 times the hype Buster did. Perhaps it's because the Braves have a higher profile than the Giants (for some unknown reason). Perhaps it's because the Braves are always on TV, or that they are in the Eastern Time Zone. Perhaps it's because he started the year with the club and hit a monstrous home run in his first game. Or maybe it is all those things PLUS the fact that from far away, it really does look like Dwight Howard in a baseball uniform.

It's time to look at some stats. I put effort into this, so read AND digest them! I'll even include some Saberjerk Fangraph stats for you nerds/fruitcakes that hate RBIs.

Heyward leads in all cumulative categories... as he should. The guy has over 100 more AB's than Posey. The argument to be made, other than Posey's defensive abilities and exponentially more important position, is that Posey has done more in less time.

But what about Buster's rates and percentages? They're higher/better than Heyward's, What if they had the same amount of AB's?

To demonstrate this argument, I have adjusted Heyward's stats to what they would look like in the amount of AB's that Buster has taken. So basically, Buster has 77% of the AB's that Heyward's had, and this is what Heyward's stats would look like in the same amount of AB's. Not perfect, but it helps illustrate how incredible Posey has been, and shows his production rate.


Very intriguing indeed.

The other argument in favor of Posey is his position. I mean come on. There really is no argument. To produce at Posey's clip while catching one of the most prolific pitching staffs in the world, and throwing out would be base stealers left and right is truly impressive. Not only that, but the physical demands of getting down in a Saigon Squat for 9 innings a day, taking foul balls to the mask and getting bruised up on the regular basis makes the argument even stronger for Posey.

Heyward has played a good right field, and he's got a great arm, but the sheer rigors and demands of playing catcher full time are in a whole 'nother stratosphere. In addition, we forget that Buster has also played a flawless first base from time to time, a new position.

There have been a ton of good rookies this year, particularly in the National League. Jaime Garcia, Stephen Strasburg, Michael Stanton, Madison Bumgarner and others have definitely impressed, but when it comes down to what Buster Posey means to the Giants, it is no contest. He single handedly beat the Cubs the other day, and has meant more to the Giants than any other hitter. While Heyward's bat and presence in RF could be replaced, Posey's could not.

Isn't that the definition of value? Buster for ROY.

A special win... for a special team?

Woooohoooo!

Wow. That. Was. A. Doozy!

I can't remember a cooler, more extreme home opener than this one here. The Giants' 4-0 record notwithstanding, there seems to be something pretty special about this team in these early days of the 2010 season.

I know, I know. It's 4 games, and 9 times out of 10 Renteria doesn't hit that walkoff dong in the ninth inning. There are also a number of concerns that I still have about certain guys. But I can't help but feel that there's something different about this team.

They just seem more confident; more ballsy I guess.

If you look at the difference between this year's team and the guys we had last year, there really are only a few differences. Yes we brought in DeRosa and Huff, and they seem to be solid additions, but the real differences are the two guys that were already here; two guys earning like $20MM between them.

Edgar Renteria and Aaron Rowand are officially the X-Factors for this 2010 team. In the Astros series, as well as the first game of the Braves series, these two nutsacs have been the difference-- there's simply no denying it. And how ironic is it that two guys we've absolutely loathed the most were the two guys to win the game today? Little by little, they are chipping away at the hatred.

As I mentioned two posts ago, Renteria really looks like a beast among boys out there right now and appears to be the same player who had a .330 season for the Braves in '07. Lefty Malo mentioned it on twitter during the game, and I think he said it best. Something along the lines of, "Even without the HR Renteria hit, he looks like the best hitter out there. Good approach, on balance, and not pushing."

Even though Edgar's dong was his first extra base hit of the season, I'd be content if he hit .300 this season with nothing but singles. Seriously.

As for Aaron Rowand, he's still the same guy he was. Yes, he's 15 pounds lighter, but he's still reaching for balls out of the strike zone and swinging at first and second pitches far too often. The only difference seems to be that some of his balls are finding holes. Maybe the lost weight is helping him, who knows. All I know is that he is still frustrating me in half to two thirds of his at bats, and pleasantly surprises me with hits in the rest. Hey, I guess that's what a .270 hitter looks like.

I have to say, although some of you may call me nuts, that the guy who concerns me most right now is Pablo Sandoval. Part of me thinks that maybe he's starting to believe his own press clippings and is basking in the adoration and success he's had thus far.

The garbage he's swinging at and extreme lack of discipline at the plate appears to me to be worse than what he was doing last year. I don't know. Maybe I'm nuts, and I believe he'll find a groove sometime soon, but he's scaring me a little bit. He seems off balance, and has yet to really barrel up a couple line drives. He's finding holes and dropping in some bloops, but his RBI groundout today was not a good at bat.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not hating on the Panda, I'm just pointing out that pitchers are starting to figure out that he really will swing at everything, and he'll do so at the expense of his power and balance. He'll settle down a little, but right now, he's a little all over the place.

Back to the team as a whole though.

Does anyone else feel like we're well into the season? Like as if we're already heading into the home stretch? Maybe it's because this is most excited we've been about this team in years, but there's already a different feel about this team and even amongst fans.

Anyway, we've got two more against Los Bravos, and we must try to remember that we're only 4 games into a long ass season. It was a sweet win that really helps boost the swagger of the team and fires up Giants Nation. In addition, the Braves, who played a night game in the ATL on Thursday and arrived at SFO around 2:30am, are flat worn out. They were already behind on sleep, then they had to dog out a 13 inning loss. You can't tell me that doesn't already put us at a significant advantage on Saturday.

If I was a betting man, I take Wellemeyer and the Giants on Saturday to make us 5-0.

PS: Let's see if we can get Jason Heyward to upgrade his Golden Sombrero on Friday into a Platinum one on Saturday. I'm taking bets on how fast the notoriously horrendous bandwagoning Braves fans hop off his train when he inevitably struggles. I'm setting the over/under at May 20th. Any takers?+

PSS: Obviously Steve Young, Jerry Rice as well as Kirk Reuter in the stands were the extra mojo we needed to win. Obviously...