Giants pulling it together despite a bad Panda

Sometimes things click, and sometimes they don't. For these Giants, the offense has once again come back to life, and the bullpen has been excellent. Despite the loss in Pittsburgh on the the play at the plate (today I hate replay), we're looking at a first place team 8 games over .500.

How are they doing this? Well, it's really Giants baseball at its finest give or take.

At AT&T Park thus far, these Giants have managed to earn a 10-5 record, but lest we forget that it could easily be a 5-10 mark. Along the shores of the Cove, they're only managed a middling .251 average, with a 7th worst mark of only 40 extra base hits.

How then have they managed such a solid record? Winning one run games with great pitching.

Even when our starters have been less than stellar, these guys are managing to put up just one more run than the opposition-- the averages tell exactly that. The offense is putting up 3.9 runs a game. The pitching has allowed a league low 44 runs at home, and yes, that equals 2.9 r/pg.

One run games at home you say? Well I never!

On the road though, despite what it seems, these guys have an even worse team average (.236), but surprisingly score almost one more run per game (4.8 r/pg), and their opponents score about 4 runs a game.

That's actually about right when you think about how AT&T Park affects the numbers.

What's just odd about these guys is that they've had hitting that to the eyeball appears to be vastly improved-- and yet the averages are middling, the RISP is only .246, and the power production at home is weak.

This is just one of those cases when averages aren't telling the entire story and a case when the sum of this team's parts add up to something better than you'd expect.

Essentially this lineup has a dead spot or two (excluding pitchers) every time it rolls out there. It's the creaky spot in the floor and the ungreased hinge that wakes up your parents at 3am when you try to sneak back into the house drunk in high school.

Those dead spots are essentially Pablo Sandoval and any non-regular that plays that day.

How bad are these non-regulars? They are terrible. More on that later.

I'm not going to give too much crap to Brandon Hicks, whose been a nice surprise with the longball, but he's still hitting just .208-- very Mark Reynolds-ish. But as long as we're looking at him, let's note that he hits .150 at home, .270 on the road, and has a .313 average with RISP. Curious, but still a decent replacement for Old Man Scutaro and his bad back.

Sandoval meanwhile...

Seriously dude, what the hell? I've seen you in bad streaks before, but this... this is something else entirely. Everything seemed to align nicely for you to have a massive contract year. But alas, you've changed too much. Your smaller waistline hasn't helped you at the plate, and now your mental problems stemming from pressure have gotten the better of you.

I refuse to believe that this contract situation has not affected him, because even he is normally incapable of such consistent ineptitude. It's as plain as day though, he quite simply has sucked, and isn't doing any of the things he normally does.

Thankfully, while trying to figure out his 2014 patterns, Eno Sarris over at Fangraphs had already figured it all out.

His conclusions? Panda is no longer swinging at the first pitch.

Huh?

Seems crazy that the guy who we drill into the ground year after year for swinging at the first pitch could have possibly slowed his roll to his own detriment. But maybe his most maddening habit was helping him after all.

From Sarris at Fangraphs:

So he’s swinging less and reaching less, but unfortunately, he’s also swinging at pitches inside the zone less, too. But it turns out, *when* he’s swinging is much more important than *which pitches* he’s swinging at. Look at his swing percentage on the first pitch over the course of his career: 

Credit: Eno Sarris from Fangraphs.com

That's good work, Eno.

This is more than an anomaly. This is a guy trying to overhaul his entire approach at the plate and failing miserably.

You're seeing him force himself into taking pitches and starting off more often with an 0-1 count. Throw in a couple lousy swings, and you have yourself a .168 average with a 22% strikeout rate-- a full 7 points higher than his mark last season. He's not swinging, then swinging, missing, or making outs too consistently for this to keep itself up. Instead of that $100 mil his slimewad agent is looking for, he's going to end up on the free market with an unsightly qualifying offer looming over his head and a career worst year to his name.

Other dead spots? How about the entire bench? Arias, Perez, Blanco, Adrianza? Horrendous. Not sure, but if they keep this up, we're probably talking historically bad.

With the lone exception of Hector Sanchez, who's shown signs of life recently and has done a nice job behind the plate, we're talking about one of the worst-hitting benches in baseball.

Luckily they're all slick with the glove, because this is bad news. Arias, Perez, Blanco, and Perez are a combined 17-123 for a nauseating .138 average, 3 extra base hits, and 0 HR (as of 5/6).

No one expected any of these guys to put on a Pink Floyd Dustin Pedroia laser show, but Jesus, this is bad.

Lord knows Bochy tries to get these guys in there to kickstart them and give their main guys a breather, but at some point, I'd rather have a tired regular than a sub .200 hitting bench guy making routine plays then routinely grounding out. At some point, we're going to have to think about pulling up a hot bat from Fresno like Nick Noonan and rolling the dice.

As for pitching, it has been all about Tim Hudson and The Bullpen (which should be a band name immediately). Huddy has been worth every penny and then some, and the bullpen has been huge. While Bumgarner has been hit or miss (mostly hit in his last few starts), and Cain, Timmy, and Vogey are all a coin flip these days, Hudson has allowed more than 2 runs only once, and has been an absolute pillar of strength every fifth day. He's one of those guys that I just wish we'd had on our team earlier in his career-- not that it even matters, because he's pitching like a Cy Young candidate.

The only guys in the bullpen with an ERA over 1.88 are Gutierrez (3.60), (Huff, DL, 3.86) and Petit, who got lit up as an ill-prepared spot starter for Cain. His ERA before that start was 2.61 as a mostly bullpen oriented swingman.

Casilla has been a monst, and Jean Machi has been unbelievable. And in case you didn't know, Machi and his 5 wins (I know, I know) are leading Major League Baseball.

BITCHES!

I honestly like the way things are going with this team. There's always room for complaint and improvement, but with the run production they've managed, plus a stalwart bullpen, I think this team will be in 1st place a good chunk of this year or bare minimum knocking on the door.

Gregor Blanco doesn't need replacing

Please believe me, I'm not trying to play Devil's Advocate, and I'm not trolling you. Let's just examine this for a minute.

Does Gregor Blanco really need to be replaced? Is he that bad? Does he hurt us as an everyday left fielder?

Everyone initially would say, "Of course he needs to be replaced. He plays great D, but LF is a power position, and he can't hit it out. Hell, he can barely hit doubles, and doesn't steal enough bases."

Okay. Fair enough. He does seem to lack the ideal makeup of a left fielder... especially when you think Bonds every time "Left Field" and "Giants" appear in the same thought. Blanco just doesn't quite do enough while we're watching games all year to make us think that he's good enough to man the position on his own.

But is perception truly reality?

With all the MLB Hot Stove action going on and names being thrown around as free agent targets or potential trade acquisitions, I've checked out a fair amount of stats on guys. For stats, usually I go to Fangraphs, and really pore over the averages and percentages.

You know me by now. I'm not a big WAR or FLIPx or ASS+ believer (or whatever they're all called). I don't think numbers derived from all kinds of sources and mixed into a blender for a final number metric rating is the only way to evaluate players. Call me old school, call me an idiot, I don't care.

However, I do respect WAR as a decent ranking of whether a player hurts or helps a team. Despite my old man, conservative way of thinking, when a metric like WAR has Mike Trout as the best OF and Andrew McCutchen as #2, it's something that can be depended on for something. You can't really argue with that. Is Mike Trout really worth 10 extra wins, versus an average player like Ryan Doumit? Yeah. I think so, don't you?

This actually marks a partial turnaround for me on this issue.

So, knowing that having Mike Trout roaming your outfield and in your lineup wins you 10 extra games and having Ryan Doumit or Nick Markakis in yours only preserves the status quo, where would you think Gregor Blanco was in 2013? Hunter Pence?

It may surprise you. A lot of the stats and rankings will surprise you. Simply because most of us don't see Blanco as a starting caliber LF, but instead an easy scapegoat for the lack of power the Giants consistently display.

WAR says Pence is worth nearly 5.5 wins, and Blanco worth almost 3.

No matter what our eyes tell us, Blanco is an above average player-- 28th best on this list of qualified OFs. Pence was 6th.

This is both the interesting and annoying part of using the WAR metric to make any arguments. Would you rather have Blanco or Allen Craig? Blanco or Beltran? Cespedes, Cuddyer, even Norichka Aoki?

Blanco placed above all those guys in the WAR rankings.

This is why I cannot and absolutely will not use it as an end-all be-all for player evaluation like famed MLB Network Troll Brian Kenny, and for those whose entire blogs are based off metrics like this. Team baseball has too many moving parts to be defined by one guy's history and patterns.

I'm okay with using it as part of an evaluation though, so let's dig a little deeper.

Blanco's ranks versus the other qualified 50 outfielders in 2013.



If nothing else, this just proves that Blanco is a study in gives and takes. He's patient and makes a ton of contact, but doesn't hit for any power (as we knew already), but, what is up with him having the highest Line Drive percentage among all outfielders? Now that is a wild stat..

The thing that shocks me is how few times he crossed the plate in 2013. A lot of this can be attributed to how poor Blanco performed as a leadoff hitter in 2013 (as well as lousy clutch hitting behind him). He simply isn't up to the task and his supporting cast didn't help matters.



Is it possible that Blanco could significantly improve with the presence of a healthy and productive Angel Pagan leading off? The evidence would suggest as such. In fact, Blanco is a .248 career hitter leading off. Sometimes you can't teach an old dog new tricks, and you can't make a guy a leadoff hitter just because he's fast, makes contact, and walks at a decent rate.

Although we figured out just now that Blanco should never lead off unless medically necessary, the biggest issue with Gregor is not simply that he has below average power, but that he doesn't hit lefties well. Couple this with a weak Giants bench devoid of pop, and you have a serious hole against left handed pitchers. Giants brass knows this, and is trying to add a right-handed LF to complement Blanco. I suggested Mike Morse via free agency. There are also ideas of trading for someone.

My argument in all of this though, is that a cheap right-handed platoon mate (better than Andres Torres obviously) is the answer for the cost-conscious Giants, rather than trading for a new player entirely.

The recent names floated are Logan Morrison from the Marlins and Brett Gardner from the Yankees. Possibly even Ichiro.

Ok, all nice names, but they're also all left handed, and the entire point of this article is to prove that Blanco is an above average player that simply needs A) To not lead off, and B) to have his at bats versus lefties reduced to the minimum by instituting the buddy system.

Furthermore, I'd rather have Giants brass spend another $3-6MM annually to find Blanco a decent platoon mate than trade anyone worthwhile from our farm system to replace a guy that may not need replacing to begin with.

FURTHERMORE SOME MORE, the lack of power throughout the Giants lineup has more to do with the sub-par 2013 performances of Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey, and the absence of Angel Pagan, than Blanco not playing well enough.

Yes, it is their fault more than it is his fault. Take it to the vault.

It rhymes so I said it.

Assuming Pagan is the everyday leadoff hitter (career .294 hitter in the #1 hole), Blanco gets pushed down to 6-8th (career .278 hitter in those spots), and they can find a righty LF that can be average versus LHPs, the problems are lessened.

This kind of patchwork problem solving can indeed be maddening for fans that want more, but ownership isn't willing to go nuts on free agents and this guy can't blame them. The approach isn't sexy and it doesn't satisfy our appetite for home runs, but it could work-- or at least prevent left field from hurting the 2014 Giants.

Stay Hot Pablo Sandoval!

Stay hot Pablo Sandoval. Please God, stay hot.

Seriously. Stay hot. Stay in control of your at bats, and stay in control of your eating and everything else.

If exponentially more tail being thrown at him and 4 HR in April aren't enough to keep him on the path to All-Stardom, I don't know what will.

Pretty amazing that we could win a World Series in a year when a guy we counted on so much to contribute consistently frustrated us.

He's hitting now like he did two years ago. He's lining the ball from both sides of the plate, he's nimbler at third base, and those shoestring swing-throughs last year are once again singles and doubles.

I am just so damn proud of him, and it means so much to the Giants on and off the field that Panda is successful.

He sells merchandise, to the tune of millions of dollars annually. He makes Giants fans out of little girls that might ordinarily not care about baseball. Any player that creates lifelong Giants fans is a goddamn golden goose.

So much about his blazing hot start and new physique really depends on Pablo himself.

Teams and pitchers will reevaluate their scouting reports and readjust to him. Will Pablo be able to adjust on the fly? He wasn't able to do that last year when they threw him nothing but junk.

It certainly looks like Pablo is a new man at the plate, as I'm seeing him take pitches he'd have swung at last year, and making contact with pitches he'd have swung through last year.

And it's not so much that he's even seeing a bunch more pitches per plate appearance. With this year's small sample size, he's seeing 3.8 pitches per plate appearance, compared to 3.4 all of last year. It's an increase, but he's still his free-swinging self.

Honestly, the percentages haven't changed much AT ALL. I looked through all the Fangraphs nerd percentage stats, and found that he's actually swinging at 68% of pitches in the strike zone, a full 10% less than he did last year. He's swinging at nearly the exact rate of pitches outside the zone as he did last year. So honestly... how is this success happening?

It's not contact percentage. Nope. He's actually slightly down from last year.

In fact, nearly all his percentages and numbers are exactly the same except for his success at the dish.

I honestly didn't expect to find any of these results. I expected a correlation; something that jumped out. I got nothing.

The only things-- and I mean the ONLY things-- that the stats and percentages show about his behavior is that he's having success. His BABIP (Batting Avg. on Balls in Play) is at .359... and that is very, very good. Last year, he hit .291 with BABIP.

He's striking out at a slightly higher rate, walking at a slightly lower rate. None of it makes sense...

UNLESS...

Camp Panda actually worked, and it really WAS his physical conditioning that prevented him from success in 2010.

Practice, dedication, and a more physically fit Pablo Sandoval are the only differences between this year and last. He lost 40+ lbs. and that really is substantial.

Pick up 5 gallons of milk, or one of those big 45 lb. plate weights at the gymnasium. It's significant.

As a fat guy apologist, I didn't believe his weight had as much to do with his struggles as his simple inability to focus and calm down at the plate. I advocated for Adderall, the thing that made Andres Torres into a top 30 outfielder.

I don't know if he's on St. John's Wart or Ginko, or Ritalin, or just chicken breasts, but it's frickin working, and he needs to continue.

If you're one of these skinny jerks with rapid metabolisms, then screw you. But seriously, I know how hard it is to lose 40 lbs and how much self-control is necessary to maintain the a diet like that.

It's really tough, especially when you love to eat. So I definitely understand what Pablo's accomplished and the type of dedication it requires to get it off and keep it off. It's almost harder to keep it off than it was to lose it in the first place.

With gourmet clubhouse spreads of God-knows-what greeting the Panda at every game in every city, there is a danger of regression. It's almost like as if Josh Hamilton was greeted by an alcohol and drug buffet before and after every game. Seriously. That's not a joke. It's not supposed to be funny. It's true and it's the same.

The early success of Pablo Sandoval has been up there with Aaron Rowand's production as the best story of April. And I honestly wouldn't have it any other way. These two guys love the game and want so badly to succeed, and they finally are.

Since there is no statistical evidence as to why Pablo is doing so well, I can come to no other conclusion other than this:

His conditioning and newfound dedication to improvement has led to success. Let that be a lesson to all of us, and STAY HOT PABLO SANDOVAL.

Timmy, Burrell, Machine, & Buster Burrell

I haven't written a ton about actual baseball observations thus far in the young 2011 season, mainly because I've been waiting for stories to develop on their own. Here's what I'm thinking about:


Timmy's velocity is up!

We've all noticed some not-so-subtle changes in our ace, Timmy Lincecum. He's more confident and badass than he's ever been. With 2 Cy Youngs and a World Series ring, he could retire a happy man tomorrow. But he's getting better.

Last season, he really learned how to PITCH. And despite his scary-bad August, 2010 was the most important year to date for our boy. He learned how to work through mechanical problems, and how to pitch to contact instead of always trying to blow people away with swing and miss stuff.

With his fastball topping out pretty much at 93, he had to make his changeup filthier and his speeds change more drastically. Tim Lincecum has become a complete pitcher... which is crazy to say, because the automatic question is, "Well what the hell was he before?"


With a new dedication to working out his lower body and weight lifting throughout the winter, Timmy looks stronger, stouter, and he's got his 95 fastball back. Take a look at what Fangraphs put together --->

So far Timmy's categories are up across the board and his fastball's average velocity is up 1.5 mph.I know it's early, but everything from K/9 (10.24) to his BB/9 rate (1.86) have improved, and although it's only 3 starts, I attribute his improvements to his maturation as a pitcher and newfound dedication to strength-training his lower body.

I mean, the guy just looks stronger. Plus he's got the high socks. That helps aerodynamically or something...



Pat the Bat's scary start

I love Pat Burrell. Sorry. He's my boy.

That being said, his start to this season is really freaking me out. I like the 4 homers. Those are really cool, but he's been all or nothing early, and he seems to be a bit bewildered as to what is going on... simply by looking at his body language and reactions to his many swings and misses thus far.

Take this Fangraphs nerdery for what it is...

Burrell's career stats have him striking out about 25-30% of the time, depending on the year. As for other career percentages, since 2006, The Machine has averaged basically an 80% contact percentage. Meaning when he swings, 8 out of 10 times he makes contact. That's pretty damn good.

Early on this year, Burrell's contact percentage is sitting at 69%, down a full 10% from last season. In the same vein, Burrell has struck out in 42% of his 2011 at bats, a full 14% increase over his average 2010.

So yeah, look, Pat's a great dude and a good sleaze. I love rooting for him, he was a great guy when I met him, but I'm concerned about these trends. He's K'd 15 times in 44 plate appearances, and hasn't exactly been great in LF.

Hey people start slow, I get that, but these trends and percentages are scary.



The Real Machine

I know this is an epic failure on my part, but I just saw the Nic Cage movie 8MM a couple weeks ago. Now I heard something about Pat Burrell's leather-clad sex pervert costume and Brian Wilson's schtick being derived from 8MM. Never saw it, didn't investigate.

After seeing the movie, I'm a little less apt to think it's so hilarious. Sleazy? Yes. Amusing? Yes.

But the movie, if you haven't seen it is about Nic Cage being hired to see whether this lady's late husband really owned a real snuff film. And if you don't know what a snuff film is, well here is the Urban Dictionary definition.


Basically, some sickos make a snuff film for some sick rich guy, and the tape turns out to be real. The character that did the "snuffing" in the 8MM film was known only as "Machine" and basically wore the same costume that Burrell parades around in the infamous Brian Wilson/Chris Rose interview.

So look, take all that for what it's worth, but I think if half the people who laughed and joked about the whole Machine thing knew what the reference was from, they might think twice about who they talk about it with, you know?

I think it's entertaining and amusing, but you know... pretty borderline stuff, and I should've been all over it, but hey, it happens.



Former Giant Buster Burrell...

Yep. Buster Burrell was a real guy, and he was a former Giant. Not only that, but he was a catcher!

What are the chances that one team has had two Busters that played catcher... let alone that the guy's name was BUSTER BURRELL! AHAHAHA!

Poor Buster's career was a short one, but he got his first taste of the majors in 1891 with the New York Giants. In his one season with the G-Men, Buster Burrell had 5 hits in 57 plate appearances with 1 run, 1 RBI, and 2 SB. He also committed 14 errors in 15 games behind the plate.

Granted, baseball was barely a sport in 1891, but this guy wasn't very good, even for 1890s standards.

He has his own Wikipedia page and his description is as follows:

Frank Andrew Burrell (December 22, 1866 in Weymouth, MA - May 8, 1962), is a former professional baseball player who played catcher from 1891-1897 for the New York Giants and Brooklyn Grooms/Bridegrooms.

AND LISTEN TO THIS. THE BROOKLYN BRIDEGROOMS BECAME THE DODGERS! AHAHAHAHAHA!

BRIDEGROOMS!

We have to spread the word about this historical fact!

And I may begin referring to the Dodgers as the Brides from time to time.

Posey for ROY: A Closer Look

Yeaaaah, I'm gonna have to go ahead and ask baseball writers to... yeah... come in on Saturday... and do a little research. Yeaaaah. Thanks!

Well. You heard Lumberg. It's time for the absurdly biased sports media to pay attention not only to the Giants and the NL West race, but to Buster Posey and his incredible season.

I know he doesn't look like Dwight Howard in a baseball uniform or play in the Eastern Time Zone. I know he doesn't act like Kenny Powers, and he doesn't have sideburns like Joe Mauer. But Good Lord, if we're talking about the rookie of the year race and whether or not Buster Posey is a future perennial all-star, there's no argument to the contrary.

Since the moment the Giants drafted this guy, we've been salivating over his skill set and potential. Rightfully so apparently. His polished approach at the plate and soft hands behind it put him in such elite company already--- in his first year--- that you'd be hard-pressed to find more than a handful of catchers or young players that you'd rather have instead of Posey.

Let's just throw out a quick list, just for fun, of the top catchers in the world.

Joe Mauer
Brian McCann
Victor Martinez
Kurt Suzuki
Jorge Posada
Mike Napoli
Yadier Molina
Carlos Ruiz
Matt Wieters
Miguel Montero
Geovany Soto

That's it. Seriously. That is the list of desirable catchers in the entire league. Is that ridiculous or what?

--Mauer and McCann are in a class of their own. They are truly the two best in baseball right now.

--Suzuki of the A's is a great player, but certainly not in the class of the first two, and is closer to Yadier Molina in ability.

--Napoli, Martinez, and Posada can hit, but can't throw anyone out to save their lives.

--Wieters and Soto are slow to develop and are inconsistent despite their talent.

Honestly? I put Posey on that list at number 3. Right here, right now, as a rookie, Buster is only behind MVP Joe Mauer and all-star Brian McCann. Simply awe inspiring.

As for Buster's rookie of the year competition, it really comes down to one guy: Jason Heyward.

I'm as big a Heyward fan as any. Like Posey, he too is a Georgia boy, a fan favorite, and has drool-inducing physical skills and talent. There is no doubt that Heyward will be very good for a very long time. He respects history and has a high baseball IQ, plays the game the right way, isn't cocky or flashy, and is generally the prototype for a baseball player.

He garnered 10 times the hype Buster did. Perhaps it's because the Braves have a higher profile than the Giants (for some unknown reason). Perhaps it's because the Braves are always on TV, or that they are in the Eastern Time Zone. Perhaps it's because he started the year with the club and hit a monstrous home run in his first game. Or maybe it is all those things PLUS the fact that from far away, it really does look like Dwight Howard in a baseball uniform.

It's time to look at some stats. I put effort into this, so read AND digest them! I'll even include some Saberjerk Fangraph stats for you nerds/fruitcakes that hate RBIs.

Heyward leads in all cumulative categories... as he should. The guy has over 100 more AB's than Posey. The argument to be made, other than Posey's defensive abilities and exponentially more important position, is that Posey has done more in less time.

But what about Buster's rates and percentages? They're higher/better than Heyward's, What if they had the same amount of AB's?

To demonstrate this argument, I have adjusted Heyward's stats to what they would look like in the amount of AB's that Buster has taken. So basically, Buster has 77% of the AB's that Heyward's had, and this is what Heyward's stats would look like in the same amount of AB's. Not perfect, but it helps illustrate how incredible Posey has been, and shows his production rate.


Very intriguing indeed.

The other argument in favor of Posey is his position. I mean come on. There really is no argument. To produce at Posey's clip while catching one of the most prolific pitching staffs in the world, and throwing out would be base stealers left and right is truly impressive. Not only that, but the physical demands of getting down in a Saigon Squat for 9 innings a day, taking foul balls to the mask and getting bruised up on the regular basis makes the argument even stronger for Posey.

Heyward has played a good right field, and he's got a great arm, but the sheer rigors and demands of playing catcher full time are in a whole 'nother stratosphere. In addition, we forget that Buster has also played a flawless first base from time to time, a new position.

There have been a ton of good rookies this year, particularly in the National League. Jaime Garcia, Stephen Strasburg, Michael Stanton, Madison Bumgarner and others have definitely impressed, but when it comes down to what Buster Posey means to the Giants, it is no contest. He single handedly beat the Cubs the other day, and has meant more to the Giants than any other hitter. While Heyward's bat and presence in RF could be replaced, Posey's could not.

Isn't that the definition of value? Buster for ROY.

Fred Lewis & stat nerds, a match made in hell

There have been a lot of players over the years that have stirred up debates among fans and educated baseball minds alike. One camp believes a guy is capable and isn't getting a fair shake, while their counterpart wants him gone at all costs. In the ongoing battle between good and evil, there surely had to be one Giant that became such a heatseeker for debate. That Giant was Fred Lewis.

I cannot remember there ever being a player with so little consequence on the field being fought over (mainly in blogs and in message board forums) so fervently and for so many months. To one side, he was an extremely talented guy who couldn't put it together at the plate, and on top of it, was among the worst left fielders in the game. To the second side, he was a misunderstood, successful left fielder/leadoff guy, who apparently is a very good outfielder who is equivalent to an above average leadoff hitter-- a legitimate starter.

Once again, the bitter struggle in the blogosphere between good and evil (baseball people versus stat people), has come to a bloody confrontation.

For those of you who aren't in to the whole Sabermetric thing-- they concoct extreme statistics based on Lord-knows-what that try to explain the entire game. Some things, I am a huge fan of, such as contact percentage, percentage of balls swung at outside the strike zone, etc. Others, I am more skeptical of. My argument is that it is still very possible to suck with a high OBP%. I will show you what an argument between a "Joe Six Pack" lifer baseball fan and a new-age stat snob would look like:

Baseball Guy: I'm sorry, Fred Lewis seems like a great person, and he's got some real talent, but he never put it together. To top it off, he takes terrible routes to balls, and is the worst left fielder I've seen since Manny Ramirez. Plus, he strikes out too much and only gets aggressive when he's down in the count, which happens constantly, because all he does it take first pitch strikes. Also, someone with his speed should have stolen more bases. Where was that? I will say that I loved his mirrored orange sunglasses though. Those things were sick.

Jack Moore, Fangraphs:

"Lewis is pretty clearly a Major League quality player. In 1,048 plate appearances in the major leagues since 2006, Lewis has recorded a .277/.355/.420 line, showcasing good plate discipline and slightly below average power. His 109 wRC+ suggests an above average player. 2009 was a down year for Lewis, however, as his ISO dropped from .158 to .132. As a result, his wOBA and wRC dropped to .327 and 98 respectively, the first year in which he has been below average in either statistic. The projection systems see him as slightly above average this year, and ZiPS in particular expects a return to 2008 levels.

Defensively, both UZR and +/- are fans of Lewis, despite his poor reputation among Giants fans in Tom Tango’s Fan Scouting Report. Both systems have Lewis between +9 and +11 over his 326 game career, which would still make him a below average position-neutral defender over 150 games.


Overall, not only does that make Lewis an MLBer, but it makes him nearly an average player. There is no way that Lewis is only the 6th best outfielder on the Giants roster. Aaron Rowand is projected to have a similar or worse year. Nate Schierholtz has similar projections. Andres Torres is 32 and projected to be well below average at the plate by both CHONE and ZiPS – Marcel’s projection is only operating on 181 ML plate appearances since 2007...


...Hitters with a .355 career OBP and a walk rate over 10% don’t just grow on trees, and especially not those still drawing a pre-arbitration salary. Somebody must have at least had a grade B prospect they would have been willing to part with for Lewis, and if not, then there’s no reason to get rid of him when Torres and Velez are still on the team.

...The Jays have acquired a player who could potentially become an asset and a contributor for essentially no cost. The risk is minimal, and a potential reward is there. For the Blue Jays, this is a no-brainer, and for the Giants, it’s a head scratcher."

See original Fangraphs article by Jack Moore here.

Baseball Guy: Yeah. No. I'm not gonna do that...

Look, I'm not entirely sure what you just said, but I think I just had an aneurysm trying to translate it. Anywaaaay..... that's all fine and good, but here's the reason Fred Lewis isn't on the Giants, and more reasons why he's not that good. I will even use relevant stats from Fangraphs, which I believe to be an excellent site when used responsibly.


In 2008 and 2009, which were Lewis's longest stints with the club (255 games), he presented some ugly patterns.

Firstly, the man struck out 26.5% and 28.5% of the time respectively. You remember 7th grade fractions, don't you? That means that if Fred played a regular game and received 4 at bats, he'd strike out once a game. That means Fred Lewis would strike out 162 times per year (since you enjoy projections so much).

Not only that, but the guy crumples under any kind of pressure. In 118 ABs in 2009, he hit .203 with runners on. The numbers only go down with the situation becoming more dire. With runners in scoring position? .186. With runners in scoring position and two outs? .156.

The only situation that Fred does do well in, is when the pressure is totally off and there's no one on base where he managed a .294 average and a .365 on base percentage.

"But Dan The Baseball Guy, isn't that what a leadoff hitter faces most of the time?"

Yes and no. In the NL in particular, he's going to see a lot more empty bases in front of him, but the guy just doesn't put enough balls in play. Even in his best situation with no pressure, his K% actually increases slightly to 30%. On top of it, for a guy who took an incredible amount of first pitch strikes, he does horrible work when he's in the hole. In '09, when he had an 0-2 count, he hit a whopping .000 with 16 strikeouts in 24 AB's.

His defense is just not good, and I don't care how you want to spin it. He was a clueless wonder in left field last season, and although his replacement, Mark DeRosa isn't going to win any gold gloves out there, he hasn't made any mistakes yet.

So look, that's the argument. I'm not going to say that the Sabermetricians are totally off base with everything they say. What I will say is that stats do not always tell the entire story. Everyone knows you can lie with statistics. Companies sell products and politicians win campaigns while distorting facts that are, for all intents and purposes, true.

When applied to baseball, there are so many things that go into what makes a good player. Fred Lewis certainly has all the tools to be a good one, but I believe his bad habits to outweigh his good ones, and he thinks way too much out there. I wish him nothing but the best in Toronto, but I cannot say I'll miss him in San Francisco.

Why do Lincey this way?

Quick note before the post: The website Hotstove.com, is now seeking The Dodgerhater's opinions on matters of the Giants. Check out my first entry here. Also, Check the little Twitter box on the left column of this site. I'm using it to put up sweet links that aren't worthy of their own post. In addition, yesterday The Dodgerhater was added to Yahoo's Big League Stew's Giants blog directory. Big stuff. Tons of traffic. Thanks to everyone who reads this!

Now, to more important matters:


Tim Lincecum is the best pitcher in baseball.

Did my nose grow any longer? Did I go into convulsions like Jim Carrey in Liar Liar (see video below)?

This is because the above statement is true. Tim Lincecum is the best pitcher in baseball... and he's only 25.

Baseball's system of rookie deals, arbitration, team control, and absurd uncapped free agent deals, really makes for a screwy game of back and forth for players like Timmy.

His rookie deal out of U-Dub paid him a $2.025MM signing bonus, and he made $405k in '08 and $650k in '09. Yeah, that makes him a moderately rich man already, and we all wish we had that much in the bank. But he's the best pitcher alive who happens to be making Pauly Shore royalty money, when he really deserves something cooler. Like Horatio Caine money or better.

This system greatly benefits teams like the Giants and Brewers who have these type of players under control for six years at reasonable rates, arbitration raises notwithstanding. Guys like Lincecum and Prince Fielder are making peanuts in comparison to what they're worth, and it's just the nature of the beast. They'll get their chance to make their money, it's just a matter of time.

But, herein lies the issue.

When teams like the Giants play the whole "precedent" game and act like a bunch of stingy ass lawyers, the player becomes irked. If Timmy is a guy like Terrell Owens or Rickey Henderson and speaks in the third person, he becomes "disrespected" and begins holding a grudge against his team. Luckily Timmy is easygoing and probably wouldn't know how to spend $8-13MM if he tried. That doesn't mean that he is okay with being lowballed.

Timmy's position is: "I've been the best pitcher in baseball, and have carried this team for two years. I was better than CC Sabathia, Dan Haren, Roy Halladay, and Johan Santana, and you think that I deserve less than $13 mil? WTF do I have to do? Eliminate drug dealers in the Bayview? I'm only asking for $13 mil. I could've asked for $16!"

This is the Giants' case... "Uh, well. You're too young, and we've offered you a record... uh... so yeah."

I think this video will help illustrate Bobby Evans/Sabean's future hearing performance. Click here if you're on an Email Newsfeed or Facebook:



Take Fangraphs' numbers. You can say what you will about these nerds, but their stats are pretty damned accurate and their projections are extremely relevant.

In '09, Timmy was worth $37MM according to Fangraphs. Only Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke were worth more (somehow). And, if you go back, Timmy was worth $33.7MM in '08 and $13.2MM as a rookie in '07 when he threw less than 150 innings!

As I count it, Timmy's career so far has been worth $83.9MM. And he's only earned $2.675MM. Maybe they should take those numbers to the arbitrator.

The point in all this is to say that the Giants, with their lowball offer of $8MM, does more harm than good. Obviously, payroll flexibility is the most important thing for the Giants, and I get that. I've gotten that ad nauseum.

But what good does payroll flexibility do when the best player you've had since Barry Bonds, and the best pitcher since Juan Marichial is pissed off and feels slighted?

It's not that Timmy won't win the $13MM at arbitration, as the mediator will pick his submission, it's the fact that the Giants lowballed him pretty badly, and they know it.

What's strange about it is that it looks like the Giants never had any intention of trying to hammer out any middle ground before the hearing takes place in a few weeks, mentioned here by Andrew Baggarly.


It's as if the Giants are either resigned to losing the case, or really live in a fantasy world where their "record offer to a player with less than three years of service" is deserving of a win, and are so confident in that that they won't budge to a middle ground. Apparently they've barely even spoken to Lincey's agent, Rick Thurman.

It's just an example of poor management.

I've defended this front office as much or more than anyone out there, and I've gotta say that I'm hanging them out to dry in this case. Any action that offends, frustrates, or angers Timothy Lincecum is the incorrect action, and they need to know that.

.

Quick lineup analysis, Fangraphs nerdery, LaRoche and Byrnes

One of the points I've continually harped on of the past few weeks is simply the following mantra: We are so much better than last year already.

No, we didn't have the honor of overpaying Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, and yes, it looks like we signed a few more Aaron Rowands (this is like a new term I think).

----Sidebar----

The definition of an Aaron Rowand is officially the following:

A player near or past the age of 30 who is either: coming off a career year, plays the game "the right way", is a "good clubhouse guy", or would be considered an excellent complementary player on a team where he is the fourth or fifth best player.

--End Sidebar--

Well, with the all-knowing Fangraphs at my disposal, I've decided to show, in only two stat categories, how we're already better than 2009 based on 4 acquisitions and who they replaced. I will use the stat "O-Swing%" which is the percent of swings that a player reaches outside the strike zone for a pitch. I will also use the stat "Clutch Index" which is some obscure amalgamation of situational percentages and assorted nonsense that apparently calculates how clutch a player is. Yes I know, they have that now.

Basically I'm attempting to show you that we have a much more disciplined team that will draw more walks and will swing at fewer horrendous pitches. Also that we've acquired some documented clutch players.

I am also taking the unusual step of adding a player that is not on the roster, but may damn well end up a Giant. I'm making Yorvit Torrealba part of the list. I just don't think Posey is ready no matter how many times Sabean and Bochy lie to our faces about it. I think Torrealba signing here is a formality. Plus we really don't know what stats to use for Posey. His terrible and extremely limited stats as a pro? His gaudy minor league stats? We just don't know. With that said, let the nerdery begin!

If you are reading this on an email newsfeed or Facebook, click here to go to the site. You need to see the tables below. Just do it, it's the whole point of the article.



Before I say anything, I'd like to point out that out of every time Bengie Molina swung the bat last year... he did so out of the strike zone 44% of the time. FORTY-FOUR PERCENT OF THE TIME HE SWUNG AT BALLS!

In case you're wondering, Rowand only did it 32% of the time. Luis Castillo of the Mets led the league in '09 only swinging at balls 12.2% of the time.

You can look at this one of two ways. You can say, "Hmm, looks like Sabean picked up some decent players, and we are better."

Or you can say, "None of this means jack. We still don't have a big hitter."

I say that we've improved our plate discipline significantly, and I believe we can expect Pablo's discipline to improve in 2010 as he gets better and better. By bringing in DeRosa, Huff, and Freddy Sanchez, we've increased our plate discipline by nearly 5 percent. It doesn't seem like much, but consider that every 100 pitches, we will have taken 5 more balls as a team. Think about how many 3-2 pitches that could turn into walks over the course of a year. Last year they were strikeouts or double play grounders. The more pitches the 2010 Giants take, the higher the collective on base percentage, a figure that was the most horrendous in the entire league last year (.309).

Then you take a look at the Clutch Index. Say what you will, and I'm skeptical about the stat as well, but those 4 new guys have a full point worth of clutchness on their side over their predecessors. In fact, in '09 Pablo Sandoval was 10th best in all of MLB, while DeRosa was ranked 12th and Huff 15th.

Also, these numbers include Yorvit Torrealba, who is still being contacted by the Giants. He's getting back from Venezuela next week, and will play make a deal at that time. Take it the bank, he's going to be a Giant.

Again, you can say what you will about Fangraphs and their stats, but we're looking at 3 guys in the top 15 in the Clutch Index. Not too shabby.

Anyone feel a little better? No? Yes?

Again, if you couldn't see the tables, click here to go to the Dodgerhater website.

Quick notes:

Brandon Medders avoided arbitration and is back with an $820k deal. A bargain, when Fangraphs estimates his value at $1.4MM.

Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic has an article filled with informational nuggets. First, he writes that LaRoche took less money to sign in Arizona because of the ballpark dimensions.

The following is from John Shea of the Chronicle though:

"I like (Chase Field) first because it's a dome, and I like the climate," LaRoche said on a conference call. "I don't know if it's the backdrop, the batter's eye, but it's a really good park to see the ball. I like playing here.

"Not to bash (the Giants) at all, I just had to weigh it. Was it worth going there for a couple of years or just riding it out and seeing what kind of options were available? They kind of started dwindling fast. When (the Diamondbacks' offer) came out, when I first heard about it, I remember telling my agent, 'Let's try to get this done.' This is a chance that I didn't want to waste."

Regarding his multiple two-year offers, LaRoche said, "They just happened to be in places I wasn't excited about."

The next piece of info from both Piecoro and Shea has to do with Eric Byrnes, who was released by the Snakes. Once a few more days go by, Arizona will be on the hook for the rest of his salary and they'll probably release him, making him free to sign with whomever he wants.

Again, from John Shea:

"It's not a real secret (that) I'd definitely be interested," Byrnes said in a phone interview. "The Giants, of course, that's the best fit geographically."

Byrnes was a Giants fan as a kid, graduated from Mountain View's St. Francis High and makes his offseason home in the Bay Area. He has had memorable games at the Giants' park, where he's a .295 hitter in 132 at-bats (five homers, 20 RBIs, 6-for-6 in steals) and hit for the cycle in June 2003 with the A's.

Thoughts on LaRoche and Byrnes? I'd be happy with Byrnsey being a platoon guy in right field, plus he'd be minimum salary cheap. I'd be more comfortable with him in RF than Schierholtz or Bowker. I'd love to hear what you people have to think. I don't see how it could backfire...

.

Aubrey Huff to the Giants... The Sabean haters will have a field day

In case you haven't heard, Aubrey Huff is a Giant.

This is definitely one name that I hadn't heard throughout this seemingly interminable offseason.

Look, before we piss and bitch, moan and groan, let's just throw out a couple things to get them out of the way.

-- Huff is a career American Leaguer other than a 68 game tour with the Astros in '06

-- He is 33 years old

-- Huff has played significant amounts of RF in addition to being primarily a 1B/3B

-- He has a career line of .282/.340/.472 (.812 OPS)

-- He's never hit less than 15HR in a season since 2001 (his 1st year as a starter)

-- He's never had more than 53 walks in a season

-- He's one season removed (2008) from a 32 HR, 108 RBI, 48 double, .912 OPS season

-- Huff's career BABIP (Batting average on balls hit in play) is .296 (not too shabby)

-- His career UZR\150 numbers: 1B: -4.0; 3B: -4.4; RF: -9.8 (1B w/BAL in '09 was -.3.5

-- Bill James predicts him to go for 20HR/66RBI with a .267 average

Now that you have some background, let's look a little deeper into this.

First of all, this is a textbook "low-risk, high-reward" signing. Yes Huff is 33, and yes, he had a horrendous year last year split between the Baltimore Orange Birds and the Detroit Philanderers. There is no defending that. I will not get into any specifics, because it was by far his worst season, and based on the man's track record, it was negative fluke. For 1 year and $3MM, you could do A LOT WORSE.

Not to say that this could be a waste. With another primary infielder added to the mix, we are certainly looking at a fullish looking roster (without even getting into the 40 man roster business). As the MLBTR article says, it looks like Huff is going to be primarily a first baseman, although he's capable of playing 3rd.

In 2006 when Huff last played at least 90 games at the hot corner, he posted a -7.4 UZR/150 rating. That compares well with Kung Fu's '09 rating of -6.4, DeRosa's '09 rating of -8.7, and Juan Uribe's number of +4.8 (in only 44 games). It shouldn't matter much, as Huff should rarely see 3rd. I was simply illustrating that he's capable.

Plus, Huff's arrival pushes DeRosa to LF, his best defensive position.


(----> Huff is on the left. Come on. How can you not like this guy? If nothing else, Brian Wilson has a new beer pong partner for Wasted Wednesdays at Bar None. Check out the link at the bottom of the article for the story after you read it all!)

"Great." you say, "More mediocre old guys.

If by "mediocre old guys" you mean guys past the age of 32 who can't steal any bases or hit more than 25 dongs, then yes. We have another mediocre old guy.

Without looking at what positives Huff could bring to the table, I'm already expecting to see Grant over at McCovey Chronicles pulling his hair out through his blog post.

The anti-Sabean movement among hardcore Giants fans (read: blog-reading, obsessive fanatics like us), seems to have been getting worse and worse. I mean, yeah, I get it, but who would you have preferred?

Personally, I would have preferred Carlos Delgado, who hit 38 dongs in '08 with a -3.4 UZR/150 at first base. However, while Huff was having a dreadful season in '09 at the plate, Delgado was recovering from severe hip surgery. In addition, he would not have come for $3MM and one year. He certainly would've required 2 years, at something more like $12-16MM. Which naturally would have spurred raucous complaining about signing old guys to long contracts among the legions of unrealistic fans out there. Of course, we'll see how Delgado's situation turns out, but Huff's one year deal is indicative of the "New Sabean".

Like many of us, changing how we operate is difficult. Sabean has doled out so many bad contracts to 30+ year old free agents (Winn, Rowand, Roberts, etc.), that he is no longer capable of signing anyone to anything more than a 2 year deal, while still not capable of avoiding 30+ somethings altogether. He's simply too gunshy at this point-- and with good reason. He'll still get blasted by the anti-Sabean mafia, but he's in a no-win situation. Just be grateful that Adam LaRoche blew off our offer this past week.

And hell, if Huff hits 12 home runs and plays average defense, he's gone next year without hurting us too badly. So let's just look at what we've got in our bag of tricks... I mean, collection of thirty somethings:

CF Rowand
2B Sanchez
3B Sandoval
LF DeRosa
1B Huff
RF Schierholtz/Bowker
SS Renteria
C Posey/Whiteside

Util: Juan Uribe, Travis Ishikawa, Andres Torres, etc.

Hey, I don't hate it. What the lunatic fringe needs to understand is that this is SOOOOO much better than last year. Remember? A.U. Velez? Fred Lewis? Matt Downs?

If you still can't stand it, at least Huff is a part of Bill Simmons's "Lindsey Hunter all-stars". Of course that being male athletes with names that sound like chicks. This list includes Andrea Bargniani, Ashley Lelie, Shannon Sharpe, Kelly Washington, Brook & Robin Lopez, etc.

That and, uh, this:

And here is the link to the story behind Aubrey Huff and that topless hottie. If you are gay or under 18, don't click on it. Seriously, don't make me the weirdo here.

Things got a little weird when Aubrey was in studio for "Bubba and the Love Sponge".

Thoughts on Johnny Damon

As the irrefutable mountain of evidence piles up against the Giants possibly signing Bay or Holliday, the Gyros and us fans must shift our attention to more possible situations. Unspectacular, yet helpful names have been mentioned recently-- Mark DeRosa, Yorvit Torrealba, Nick Johnson, and yes, Johnny Damon.

At 36 Damon isn't getting any younger, but has been a consistent, useful player over the past few years in New York. Even though he'd be nearly 40 at the end of a 3 year deal, he'd be the perfect bridge-gapper that we need until guys like Thomas Neal and Roger Kieschnick are ready to play.

Granted, his line is inflated because he played on an all-star team in the Bronx, full of silly talent up and down. But we can't overlook what he's done. In 2009, he put up sick numbers: 24 HR, 82 RBI, with an .854 OPS-- the 24 dongs tied a career high, and the OPS figure is the best of his life! In fact, it was so solid, that it was good for 48th in all of major league baseball-- ahead of guys like Matt Kemp, David Wright, Carlos Lee, Chipper Jones, Miguel Tejada, and Jermaine Dye to name 6.

Defense and durability are big considerations that definitely dull Damon's luster as a National League left fielder.

Damon averaged 144 games a year in four seasons with the Yankees. And, yes, some of those were as a DH, especially in '08. Of course, the DH is one of the many great advantages that the AL has over NL teams... an advantage that hurts the NL constantly. I mean, wouldn't it be nice if we could sign Vlad Guerrero to hit? Or if we could've kept Barry for another year? Sigh...

Damon can still cover ground decently, but he has a noodle arm... not quite Juan Pierre or Chad Pennington bad, but it's transforming itself from rigatoni to angel hair quite quickly. There's that, and the fact that Aaron Rowand can't really play center like we all expected he could. Those two manning our big yard scares me... but again, as I used with the Jason Bay argument, Giants fans just want some friggin offense, and we'll take our chances with some gappers to left center. This of course is why we have a disgusting pitching staff.

More importantly, Damon works counts, gets on base, still has above average speed, and is a beautiful complement to those already on the team-- ahem, all-- who refuse to take pitches and get on base for the Giants.

Damon has a career .355 on base percentage-- about a half point higher than the league worst Giants had this year of .309. In '09 Damon reached base nearly 37% of the time. Someone like him on the Giants would immediately fall between the realm of godsend and and all-seeing oracle for the free-swinging simpletons Bochy has had to trot out there.

The all important Fangraphs UZR/150 metric puts Damon in some of the worst outfielding company. In 2009, he sported a -12.1 rating while playing left (again, Manny Ramirez had a -15.4 rating and Franklin Gutierrez led the league with a +27.1 rating).

Damon's fielding .978 fielding percentage was only slightly better than Alfonso Soriano's, and he was lost in the middle of the pack with 6 OF assists last year.

What all these things tell me is that Damon is an average left fielder in decline. It doesn't appear to be rapid, but it's significant enough to think about it before throwing a bunch of money at him.

Ah yes, the money part-- the most important part.

The Gyros and Johnny have mutual interest, but this is not his first choice. His first choice is to stay in New York-- and according to Jon Heyman of SI, "...(Damon) is believed badly to want to stay." and he would be a better keeper than Matsui would be for the Champs.

And here's the kung pao kicker. Damon's agent is Scott Boras.

I can here you groaning over the Chris LeDoux song I'm listening to over here. I know. I'm groaning inside too.

Boras is the slime that we all love to hate; the guy who procured Barry Zito's contract out of thin air. We all hate the guy, but loooovvves us! Which is why Sabean can always expect his Blackberry Bold to ring, regardless of real mutual interest. This one time I hope that Sabean isn't in an AT&T deadzone.

Damon is looking for a four year deal, something the Yanks are (smartly) unwilling to do. What it will come down to in the end is a third year, either fully guaranteed or something that vests automatically with attainable goals (ie. 500 plate appearances/140 games.)

The acutal money is going to be around $11MM+ per. And before you begin groaning again, let's be realistic. He deserves it. He put up great numbers, and he doesn't deserve a big paycut from the $13MM a year he got from the Yankees. In fact, he has put up nearly identical numbers in his 2009 walk year that he did in '05 when he left Boston for the Evil Empire.

Again, with our three stud pitchers (Lincey, Sanchez, Weezy) due Mark Mangino-sized arbitration raises, it'll all be a little clearer in the near future.

What I dread is Sabean getting tricked by Boras again like he did with Zeets. Boras is really thanking Satan right now that the Giants have shown interest in his client. Now he'll play the leverage-lie-deceive-postulate-lie game to drive up Damon's price.

Bottom line, I take Johnny Damon at 3yrs./$36MM, I really do. Make him earn the 3rd year, then turn him loose. This guy getting on base in front of Pablo is exactly what we need.

Thoughts on Jason Bay

Jon Heyman of SI ran down the free agent market in this article. A couple mentions of the Giants caught my attention. First of all, he notes that the Giants are not pursuing Matt Holliday, but may indeed be kicking the tires on Jason Bay, whose price is lower than the younger Holliday's.

Bay would not come cheap though.

He has already dismissed a 4yr./$60MM offer from the Red Sox. The consensus is that he is definitely seeking a 5th year, something that a lot of teams are reluctant to do, especially like... all National League teams. This is due to the fact that Bay, 31, has significantly declined in left field.

Fangraphs, a leader in all kinds of crazy-ass metric Bill James hooey stats, lists Jason Bay as basically the 5th worst defensive player in baseball from 2007-2009. Based on their accurate, yet, incredibly complicated metric formula, Bay's UZR rating was off-the-charts bad in the last three years. For example, Franklin Gutierrez of Seattle led the majors in '09 with a 27.1 UZR/150 rating. In '09, Bay posted an extremely below average -11.2 UZR/150 rating. For a little perspective, Manny Ramirez, universally admired as one the worst left fielders ever, posted a -15.4 with the Blue Bastards last season.

Learn more about UZR ratings here.

Bay's hitting is not in doubt here. The man averaged 26 dongs and 100 RBI in the 7 seasons since he became an every day player. He also has an .898 OPS in the last three years.

So, Bay can hit, we knew that. What we're finding out, is that any National League team that has to stick him in left field every day will be sacrificing defense. At this point, the Giants, and us fans, would willingly do that. For Christ's sake, Fred Lewis manned left for 83 games last year. (And for the record, somehow Lewis posted a +5.9 UZR/150 rating. WTF is right.)

Realistically, if Bay is looking for a 5 year deal at $13-15MM per, the Giants should run for the hills. If he's declining defensively at this rate, he'll be worse than Bonds in his final 2 years in left. Now, if they are somehow able to rid themselves of Rowand deal for another bad contract that ends earlier, Bay might be more feasible.

In all reality though, Bay is a ideal fit for an AL team with a ton of money to spend and a DH spot to fill... such as New York, Boston, and the Angels, with I believe Seattle, as a potential dark horse.

Seattle is interesting because they need a big bat, and Bay is from British Columbia. The bizarre Junior Griffey resigning clogs up the DH spot a bit, but Bay's D is still acceptable enough to play 110 games in left. If the price is right, I think Bay would jump at the chance to play in a low key market close to his old stomping grounds.

The thing about Bay, is that he's looking to get paid more than anything else. This is a soft-spoken Canadian guy who spent years in Pittsburgh, toiling in anonymity, losing, and with zero protection in the lineup. Couple that with the fact that he's made a total of less than $20MM in his career in return for putting up superb offensive numbers, makes him prime "top bidder bait".

And as we know, teams that can make themselves the top bidders for top offensive talent are generally in the AL and generally play in the eastern time zone. So go figure.

We will get a better indication of what they really have to spend once Lincecum, Sanchez, and B Weezy get their arbitration raises.

Thoughts on Johnny Damon coming soon...