Thoughts on DeJesus, Bautista & Hart

First, let me begin by saying that The Dodgerhater is going on the DL. I suffered a similar injury to Dan Runzler-- a dislocated kneecap, and I'll be going under the knife on Friday. How did I do it? Um... well... I did it breaking up a fight after my cousin's wedding in Milwaukee. Yeah... it's true. Some people can handle 7 hour open bars and some can't. I'm as shocked as anyone that I wasn't the one in the fight. I know, right? Anyway, I'm not sure how much writing I'll be doing for the next week or so while I'm high on hardcore street narcotics and Gatorade Frost. I'd advise giving up your aversion to Twitter and get involved. It's hella entertaining, Facebook is boring in comparison. Give it a shot and follow me @TheDodgerhater.

Now, onto more pressing matters:


As we move into the key stretch of the 2010 season, it is obvious to me that the Giants are fairly close to being contenders-- not only for the NL West crown or Wild Card, but potentially further.

For that to happen, a lot has to go well concurrently for an extended period of time. What we've seen from this team in 2010 has been flashes of greatness, periods of lethargy and ineffectiveness, and scrappy stick-to-it-iveness.

It is the opinion of many that the team is "one big bat away" from becoming a serious threat to the National League. I agree with that, but very cautiously.

As I pointed out a couple columns ago, this team may have its big bat already on the roster in Pablo Sandoval-- who as a veritable nonentity for a majority of 2010, appears to be hacking his way out of his season long slump.

If indeed Sabean believes that the correct move is to garner another source of offense in one of the three players mentioned in the title, I would say "okay", but I have some thoughts on the matter.

David DeJesus, OF, Kansas City

Firstly, David DeJesus is a decent player, who has developed steadily on a Kansas City team forever entrenched in extreme mediocrity. He is neither a necessity nor does his qualify as a big bat. However, he could serve well as an excellent and versatile defender, above-average speed threat, and a solid threat to reach base.

DeJesus is having a good season in West Mizzourah hitting .320, with an OBP% around .390 and a solid slugging percentage of .436 (.831 OPS). He is not a home run threat, but is definitely a doubles threat. His 23 doubles would instantly tie him for 2nd on the Giants and his 46 runs scored would put him 3rd. One could argue that the lefty-hitting DeJesus, who can hit to all fields, would be an ideal fit for the spacious gaps of Mirabelli Alley both defensively and at the dish.

He is, unfortunately, one of the most polished Royals, and very well-liked by the abused, but loyal fanbase in KC. Translation: He will cost players in return. Although his contract has a club option for 2011, it doesn't come cheap at $6MM.

The downside about DeJesus is that he will be 31 in December, and it is difficult to make an argument that he would be a significant upgrade over either Pat Burrell or Nate Schierholtz, or even a currently hot-hitting Travis Ishikawa. An acquisition of DeJesus would likely result in an ideal lineup of the following:

CF Torres
2B Sanchez
C Posey
1B Huff
3B Sandoval
RF DeJesus
LF Burrell
SS Uribe

Now, obviously, there would be some flip-flopping and whatnot, but that would be our best 8 players. Because DeJesus is such a good defender, the Schierholtz argument is not a great one. It is interesting certainly, but I feel DeJesus to be an unnecessary addition.

Jose Bautista, IF/OF, Toronto Blue Jays

Jose Bautista has nowhere to go but down. I said it. His season in Toronto has been a ridiculous show of league-leading home run power, of which he has never shown. Has he been a guy with pop and positional versatility? Yes, he has. Unfortunately, this is a textbook "sell-high" move by the shrewd Blue Jays, who know that this guy is a product of a career year in a Canadian launching pad. I think the air is thinner in Canada or something. Maybe it's like in Avatar where we have to use those breathing mask things. Who the hell knows. All I know is that while Bautista has 26 dongs to lead all of MLB, he also has a .238 batting average.

In addition, the 30 year-old Dominican has never hit more than 15 dingers in a season, leading me to believe that something crazy has happened. It is truly rare that a player suddenly "gets it" at age 30, but it seems to be the case with Bautista.

With a low average, a bunch of power, and 55 walks, Bautista fits the mold of many middle of the road hacks out there-- somewhere down the line in a list that begins with Adam Dunn and ends with Jack Cust. Also in that list is Pat Burrell, a guy we already have, and has proven to me at least that he's still capable of driving the ball.

Defensively, Bautista is comparable to Mark DeRosa (remember him?). He plays 3 or 4 positions ably, but none great. He is primarily a 3B and corner OF, and is not spectacular, but decent.

Although Toronto has requested "elite prospects" in return for Bautista, that's just nothing but posturing. They know damn well that they're selling high-- hell half the men in this country have tried to unload him from their fantasy roster for a a couple of decent players, probably unsuccessfully too. The request of MIF's Ehire Adrianza and/or Manny Burriss isn't too much to pay for Bautista-- that's not the point.

The point is that this guy is simply not the right fit for the Giants either positionally or stylistically. We already have Burrell and Sandoval, who basically play the same positions-- not to mention that Burrell is nearly an identical type of hitter.

The Dodgerhater has put his foot down. Not only that, but he's talking in the third person. Just say no to Jose Bautista.

Corey Hart, RF, Milwaukee Brewers

Corey Hart is a solid player. I like him, and have for some time. He looks like a sleaze-- a cross between Johnny Damon and the big guy from "My Name is Earl". I bet he would be a perfect pal for Aubrey Huff. They could pound beers in the corner and rock out to Pearl Jam and Whitesnake together.

Hart can certainly drive the ball, and he plays a solid right field. Of the three guys mentioned in this piece, Hart fits the Giants best. He would be an ideal 5th place slugger for the Gyros, and is under control for 2011 via arbitration.

As good a season as Hart has put together (.290/.347/.561, 22 HR, 70 RBI), he will not come cheaply-- and it has nothing to do with money. Like Toronto, the Brewers are pulling a sell-high with Mr. Hart, who literally had to fight for a spot in the starting lineup in Spring Training. He was left off the all-star ballot, but surprised the world with a spectacular resurgence. This resurgence, coupled with Milwaukee's desperate pitching situation and the lack of quality options on the market, has driven the 28 year-old Hart's price sky-effing-high.

The Brew Crew doesn't need to trade Hart. They could keep him if they wanted. That probably wouldn't be the best baseball decision for them, but there's no sense in selling off a popular player for pennies on the dollar, simply because no one is willing to pay a steep, yet reasonable cost.

The bottom line is this, The Brewers want Jonathan Sanchez or Madison Bumgarner. It makes me sick just thinking about it. However, if there is any Giant that should get traded, it should be Sanchy, but even so... I just can't endorse that wholeheartedly.

If we just had one more pitcher in AAA that looked like a semi-guaranteed stud, perhaps we could make do without Sanchez this season... but that just isn't the case.

Trading Sanchez would leave a massive hole in the rotation that would be undoubtedly filled with the likes of Joe Martinez or... gulp... Todd Wellemeyer. Certainly in a playoff series, we'd be fine. Unfortunately, we need Sanchez to make the playoffs.

It's a real catch .22 for Sabean in this case, and I'm just glad for once that I'm not in his position. A Hart for Sanchez swap is a scary proposition, but don't be surprised if it happens. It might look like this...

CF Torres (S)
2B Sanchez (R)
C Posey (R)
1B Huff (L)
RF Hart (R)
3B Sandoval(S)
LF Burrell (R)
SS Uribe (R)

I can't say I didn't get a little excited just now. Uribe is now our 8th place hitter? Are you kidding me? That's pretty damn cool. It's some food for thought, and if this move goes down, we have a right to be cautiously excited. You have to give up something to get something. Of course, I wish that something were Adam Dunn for Sanchez, but this isn't a perfect world.

What do you guys think?

Fred Lewis & stat nerds, a match made in hell

There have been a lot of players over the years that have stirred up debates among fans and educated baseball minds alike. One camp believes a guy is capable and isn't getting a fair shake, while their counterpart wants him gone at all costs. In the ongoing battle between good and evil, there surely had to be one Giant that became such a heatseeker for debate. That Giant was Fred Lewis.

I cannot remember there ever being a player with so little consequence on the field being fought over (mainly in blogs and in message board forums) so fervently and for so many months. To one side, he was an extremely talented guy who couldn't put it together at the plate, and on top of it, was among the worst left fielders in the game. To the second side, he was a misunderstood, successful left fielder/leadoff guy, who apparently is a very good outfielder who is equivalent to an above average leadoff hitter-- a legitimate starter.

Once again, the bitter struggle in the blogosphere between good and evil (baseball people versus stat people), has come to a bloody confrontation.

For those of you who aren't in to the whole Sabermetric thing-- they concoct extreme statistics based on Lord-knows-what that try to explain the entire game. Some things, I am a huge fan of, such as contact percentage, percentage of balls swung at outside the strike zone, etc. Others, I am more skeptical of. My argument is that it is still very possible to suck with a high OBP%. I will show you what an argument between a "Joe Six Pack" lifer baseball fan and a new-age stat snob would look like:

Baseball Guy: I'm sorry, Fred Lewis seems like a great person, and he's got some real talent, but he never put it together. To top it off, he takes terrible routes to balls, and is the worst left fielder I've seen since Manny Ramirez. Plus, he strikes out too much and only gets aggressive when he's down in the count, which happens constantly, because all he does it take first pitch strikes. Also, someone with his speed should have stolen more bases. Where was that? I will say that I loved his mirrored orange sunglasses though. Those things were sick.

Jack Moore, Fangraphs:

"Lewis is pretty clearly a Major League quality player. In 1,048 plate appearances in the major leagues since 2006, Lewis has recorded a .277/.355/.420 line, showcasing good plate discipline and slightly below average power. His 109 wRC+ suggests an above average player. 2009 was a down year for Lewis, however, as his ISO dropped from .158 to .132. As a result, his wOBA and wRC dropped to .327 and 98 respectively, the first year in which he has been below average in either statistic. The projection systems see him as slightly above average this year, and ZiPS in particular expects a return to 2008 levels.

Defensively, both UZR and +/- are fans of Lewis, despite his poor reputation among Giants fans in Tom Tango’s Fan Scouting Report. Both systems have Lewis between +9 and +11 over his 326 game career, which would still make him a below average position-neutral defender over 150 games.


Overall, not only does that make Lewis an MLBer, but it makes him nearly an average player. There is no way that Lewis is only the 6th best outfielder on the Giants roster. Aaron Rowand is projected to have a similar or worse year. Nate Schierholtz has similar projections. Andres Torres is 32 and projected to be well below average at the plate by both CHONE and ZiPS – Marcel’s projection is only operating on 181 ML plate appearances since 2007...


...Hitters with a .355 career OBP and a walk rate over 10% don’t just grow on trees, and especially not those still drawing a pre-arbitration salary. Somebody must have at least had a grade B prospect they would have been willing to part with for Lewis, and if not, then there’s no reason to get rid of him when Torres and Velez are still on the team.

...The Jays have acquired a player who could potentially become an asset and a contributor for essentially no cost. The risk is minimal, and a potential reward is there. For the Blue Jays, this is a no-brainer, and for the Giants, it’s a head scratcher."

See original Fangraphs article by Jack Moore here.

Baseball Guy: Yeah. No. I'm not gonna do that...

Look, I'm not entirely sure what you just said, but I think I just had an aneurysm trying to translate it. Anywaaaay..... that's all fine and good, but here's the reason Fred Lewis isn't on the Giants, and more reasons why he's not that good. I will even use relevant stats from Fangraphs, which I believe to be an excellent site when used responsibly.


In 2008 and 2009, which were Lewis's longest stints with the club (255 games), he presented some ugly patterns.

Firstly, the man struck out 26.5% and 28.5% of the time respectively. You remember 7th grade fractions, don't you? That means that if Fred played a regular game and received 4 at bats, he'd strike out once a game. That means Fred Lewis would strike out 162 times per year (since you enjoy projections so much).

Not only that, but the guy crumples under any kind of pressure. In 118 ABs in 2009, he hit .203 with runners on. The numbers only go down with the situation becoming more dire. With runners in scoring position? .186. With runners in scoring position and two outs? .156.

The only situation that Fred does do well in, is when the pressure is totally off and there's no one on base where he managed a .294 average and a .365 on base percentage.

"But Dan The Baseball Guy, isn't that what a leadoff hitter faces most of the time?"

Yes and no. In the NL in particular, he's going to see a lot more empty bases in front of him, but the guy just doesn't put enough balls in play. Even in his best situation with no pressure, his K% actually increases slightly to 30%. On top of it, for a guy who took an incredible amount of first pitch strikes, he does horrible work when he's in the hole. In '09, when he had an 0-2 count, he hit a whopping .000 with 16 strikeouts in 24 AB's.

His defense is just not good, and I don't care how you want to spin it. He was a clueless wonder in left field last season, and although his replacement, Mark DeRosa isn't going to win any gold gloves out there, he hasn't made any mistakes yet.

So look, that's the argument. I'm not going to say that the Sabermetricians are totally off base with everything they say. What I will say is that stats do not always tell the entire story. Everyone knows you can lie with statistics. Companies sell products and politicians win campaigns while distorting facts that are, for all intents and purposes, true.

When applied to baseball, there are so many things that go into what makes a good player. Fred Lewis certainly has all the tools to be a good one, but I believe his bad habits to outweigh his good ones, and he thinks way too much out there. I wish him nothing but the best in Toronto, but I cannot say I'll miss him in San Francisco.

First Half Recap and Second Half Preview

Fellow Giants Fans,

First and foremost, I'd like to apologize for not making a post in a couple months. I had a good run going there and I let this slide. I promise not to let that happen again. This is a long one, but I have a lot to say.

With that being said, our Gyros are sitting at 49-39 heading into the stretch run. We're all diehards, but you cannot in all good conscience tell me that you expected them to be this good this late in the season.

It is this remarkable turnaround that has us all flying high and expecting crazy things.

Crazy things like:

1) Giving the Los Angeles Assholes a run for their money in the NL West

2) Securing the Wild Card spot over a potential group of 7 decent teams (St. Louis, Milwaukee, Chicago, Colorado, Florida, New York)

3) A second consecutive Cy Young for Timmy Lincecum or even a first Cy Young for Matt Cain.

4) Calling up one of our super prospects earlier than September

5) Going for it by making a deal to secure another bat or even the unthinkable-- another "A" list starting pitcher.

We'll get back to all of this later... Right now, let's talk about what went right in the first 88 games of the year.

1) Starting Pitching

Timmy Ballgame is enjoying another Cy Young/All-Star season. He's tied with the resurgent Justin Verlander for the ML lead with 149 K's. He's 2nd in ERA at 2.33. He's got 10 wins. Beast.



The best story thus far has to be Matt Cain, who also has 10 wins.

After years of growing pains, mind-bogglingly heinous run support, and some inconsistency, Matt Cain has had the type of first half befitting of any team's #1 starter-- let alone a #2.

What do the following names have in common? CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Cole Hamels, Carlos Zambrano, Daisuke Matsuzaka?

They all suck compared to Tennessee Thunder Cain halfway through the season.

Seriously. And a serious bargain as well.

Consider this table and just look at what each pitcher earned for each first half win:



What Cain and Lincecum are doing is just remarkable. Hell, even Tim McCarver's Cream of Wheat brain has put this together.

The angle that no one has been talking about in regards to Cain is his new and improved physique and endurance. Cain hit the weights hard in the offseason, and most likely changed his diet in a serious way. He's a good 10-15 pounds lighter this season and you can tell by looking at him that he's stronger in his upper body. This, along with some run support and his new badass mentality has really given us a helluva ballplayer-- someone who has re-established himself as an "untouchable" commodity in the organization.



2) Pablo Sandoval

The Kung Fu Pandoval phenomenon is in full swing. Even the East Coast-centric ESPN jerks are into the Panda. It's just a goddamn shame that he wasn't invited to the all-star game.

After a bit of a slow start, Pablito has truly hit his stride. How a guy playing 3 positions with a 15/55/.333 stat line doesn't get an all-star berth is simply baffling.

Unfortunately he just doesn't have the name recognition yet.

But here, this is not an issue. We have people showing up to games in full panda suits and putting on panda masks during his AB's. Pablo is the coolest guy around, and truly rivals Timmy Ballgame as the Giants' most popular player.

As Krukow would say, "The guy was born to hit."

3) The Bullpen

What was a disaster last season is now a strength.

When the two worst ERA's in the 'Pen belong to Brian Wilson (3.66 ERA, 23 SV, 10.30 K/9) and Merkin Valdez (4.97 ERA, 0 ER & 7 K's in last 7 appearances), you don't have much to complain about.

Surely Brian Wilson drives us nuts and has blown some saves in ugly fashions (ahem... Milwaukee), and Bobby Howry has been a disappointment at times, but other than that, we've got some seriously solid arms in there.

The best of which has been 8th inning beast Jeremy Affeldt.


The 30 year old southpaw has had an all-star caliber season thus far notching extreme stats in the process:

34 IP, 19 Holds, 1.32 ERA, 8.21 K/9, and he currently has a 23 game scoreless streak going right now. He's an absolute bargain at $3.5 million and has been nothing short of incredible.

I see a lot of promise in Sergio Romo as well.

4) Aaron Rowand's resurgence

Ever since Bruce Bochy became desperate and plugged A-Row into the leadoff spot, we've seen a payoff for Rowand's huge payday.



No one really knows why Rowand hitting leadoff has clicked, but it must have something to do with the constant diet of fastballs he's feasting on.

Whatever it is, he's hovering around .300 and is no longer the whipping boy he once was. That of course is still Zito.


Issues for the second half:

1) Get Bengie Molina back on track

Bengie has been really hacking up there-- I mean swinging at balls a foot off the plate. He's not right mentally. He is still very upset about losing his father and is not happy that he hasn't been offered an extension by the Giants. He feels a little under appreciated, and is trying too hard and thinking too much.

However, check this out little bit of "Fitz & Brooks-esque mojo" action.

Bengie missed Jonathan Sanchez's miraculous no-no because of the birth of his daughter. This, combined with a couple of days "off" recently (as if he got any rest with that crying baby), as well as signs of life heading into the break, leads me to believe that Bengie may make a comeback as the reliable power source he was earlier in the year.

2) Settle the rotation

What is the extent of Randy Johnson's injury? Will he be back as soon as planned? If he does come back, what do we do with Sanchez and Ryan Sadowski? And Zito?

Despite Sanchez's no-hitter, I can't say he's a shoo-in for a starting spot, although he's certainly bought himself some more time.

The Big Sadowski has been pretty damn good, but will the magic end for the goofy Floridian?


3) What kind of move to we need to make? Who's out there?

We've heard a lot of rumors out there. Some are legitimate, some are not. With the blogosphere/talk radio/ESPN cycle going 24/7, random crap gets thrown out there constantly. I of course, am contributing to this phenomenon.

We all know the Giants need power, we've spoken and heard about this ad nauseum. There are very few guys out there that can supply that at a price that doesn't include our sacred gems of Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, and Matt Cain.

Let's be real here, this is a core of players that is going to be together for awhile. The future is bright.

Do you really want to trade Tim Alderson, Jonathan Sanchez, and a third minor leaguer for a slumping, Boras-represented, expiring contract, good-as-gone guy like Matt Holliday?

Absolutely not. He is one of the few impact bats out there, but his price is too hefty and his returns are not guaranteed.

The other rumor out there right now is the Giants going after Roy Halladay.

Huh?

Look, it isn't as crazy as it sounds. The price will be extremely steep, as it should be, and pitching is not of great need.

However, there are only a handful of teams with minor league systems deep enough to make a legitimate trade offer to the Blue Jays.

It would take Sanchez. It would include either Bumgarner or Buster Posey in all actuality. That sucks. It really would suck.

However, the playoffs are built for disgusting pitching staffs like this fictitious one we're talking about here. Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, and Matt Cain is the closest thing to the holy trinity that could ever wear the same uniform.

Tell me who could compete with that. The Dodgers? The Cardinals? Phillies? Mets? Brewers? Rockies? Red Sox? Yankees? Rays? Rangers? Angels? Tigers? White Sox?

No one.

Halladay is signed for another year after this one, and will be nearly 34 when he becomes a free agent. But, he's also a future hall-of-famer.

We are all enamored with the modern day legends of Angel Villalona, Bumgarner, Posey, and Alderson, but I really think we should be living in the here and now. We could win it all... NOW.

Our system is deep.

Hypothetically, let's say we give up Madison Bumgarner and Conor Gillaspie and a third near major leaguer like Manny Burriss for Roy Halladay.

We have our holy trinity until the spring of 2011, plus Tim Alderson (a Matt Cain type pitcher) ready to break into the rotation, Jonathan Sanchez, and presumably a serviceable 10 win-capable Barry Zito.

We'll have Buster Posey ready to rock, the powerful Angel Villalona and Roger Kieschnick still in the system, and 3, count 'em 3 solid middle infielding prospects in Brandon Crawford, Nick Noonan, and Ehidre Adrianza. One of which, presumably the UCLA-groomed Crawford, will be major league ready by 2011 right when Edgar Renteria's contract is up.

So the Halladay for Bumgarner deal would not be the end of the world-- it would be the beginning of something incredible. And remember, the goal is to win a World Series. Look where Billy Beane has gotten thinking this way-- constantly looking towards the future and a bunch of unproven prospects. Why not us? Why not now?

More realistically though, Brian Sabean will play it safe, and keep our entire future intact.

Consider the following needs:

A reliable second baseman who can hit.

A reliable corner infielder who can hit.

A reliable corner outfielder who can hit.

Then, consider the following players available: Freddy Sanchez (2B, PIT), Austin Kearns (RF, WAS), Josh Willingham (LF, WAS), Nick Johnson (1B, WAS), Elijah Dukes (OF, WAS), Brian Roberts (2B, BAL), Aubrey Huff (1B, BAL), Luke Scott (LF, BAL), Mark Teahen (Util, KC).

These guys are all gettable, trust me.

How about this scenario:

Jonathan Sanchez, Nick Noonan/Brandon Crawford, and 10th rated prospect LHP Scott Barnes for Brian Roberts and Aubrey Huff. I do that in a second. Roberts is signed through 2013 and would be a great fit. Aubrey Huff can play 1B or 3B, and has a 11/56/.260 season going, in addition to an expiring contract.

Would you deal Sanchez and Crawford for Brian Roberts and Huff? I would. In a second.

The holes have miraculously been filled!

2B Brian Roberts
CF Aaron Rowand
3B Pablo Sandoval
1B Aubrey Huff
C Bengie Molina
RF Nate Schierholtz
SS Edgar Renteria
LF Randy Winn

Rotation: Lincecum, Cain, Johnson, Zito, Sadowski.

Does that weaken our pitching situation? Yes, a little, but before Sanchez threw that no-no, he wasn't in the rotation anyway.

The other guy who would be great to snag is Mark Teahen. He can play anywhere and is a solid hitter. Why not? Let's plug the holes!



Okay this is getting long and crazy, but here's one last absurd idea that's been floated around...

Keep The Spaniard, and get rid of Zito.

How you ask?

The Blue Jays have 2 horrendous contracts and must unload one. Their names are Alex Rios and Vernon Wells.

Both can play center or left, and both are extremely talented, under performing players.

To rid themselves of one of these players, the Blue Jays would theoretically take Zito off our hands, if we ate some of his deal.

Hmmm.... interesting. Zito is owed basically $94 million through the remainder of his contract ($83 million when he's bought out- which he will be).

Vernon Wells is owed $98.5 million over the next 5 years.

It's almost an exact match of salaries.

But, to make Toronto give up the clearly superior player, we will have to sweeten the deal, by eating some of Zito's contract, and/or throwing in another player like Gillaspie.

Let's say the Giants eat $20 million of Zito's deal. That would then make Toronto responsible for $63 mil ($83-20), as opposed to the $99 still owed to Wells.

Despite Wells' poor performance, he still provides a much better option than Randy Winn or Fred Lewis in left and is not nearly the lost cause that many think Zito has become. The Zito signing was a disaster, and as Tim Kawakami writes, it's time to move on, at nearly any cost.

Whew. There we go. More to come.

Oh yeah... we haven't done this in a while:


DODGER DOUCHEBAG OF THE WEEK:

Matt Kemp

According to multiple sources, Dodgers OF Matt Kemp was "...so drunk at the ESPYs that at one point during the evening, he stumbled and fell.

Even worse, in the process of falling, he grabbed a woman’s (who appeared to be his date) dress and completely pulled down her top. When those on the scene first attended to the prone Kemp, the woman shrieked, “What about me?!”"

Pure class Matt. Pure class.

--- SportsbyBrooks.com



And please enjoy this great fan perspective of Sanchez's no-hitter via Youtube.