Peavy, Uggla are low risk

Firstly, if you haven't read my piece about Mike Krukow. Please do so here. 

Now onto other stuff.

I wasn't very happy about the Dan Uggla addition. I felt like it reeked of desperation and that he wasn't much of an upgrade over Brandon Hicks or Adrianza. Maybe it's true. Maybe he won't find any semblance of his long lost stroke, and he'll strike his way out of his minor league deal. Who the hell knows? It's worth a shot, as Adrianza and the sadly broken Marco Scutaro have shuffled their way onto the DL, leaving a black vortex vacuum tornado thing at second base.

As Bochy told Kuip during the KNBR pregame show on Friday, "We're a little desperate, to be honest."

Well, I appreciate honesty. It's the same kind of honesty we've been getting from Brian Sabean during interviews. The ones where he essentially says, "Look our prospects aren't very good. We don't have a lot to trade. If we do try to get a Zobrist or a Price, or an Utley, we'll gut our system that sucked to begin with. Plus I've got an assload of money committed next year to guys like Cain, and I still have to figure out what to do with Panda, Morse, and Vogelsong's spot in the rotation. So just chill out and let me work."

I like when Sabean is honest.

For all of our trials and tribulations this season, it's still not that bad. The Blue Bastards aren't going away, but even after Friday's loss, the Giants are still in 1st place. Pretty remarkable for how bad they've been. That is simply a testament to A) How underachieving the Doyers are and B) How good this team was while firing on all cylinders.

Those cylinders may not ever be fully repaired this season, because labor costs are a bitch. So let's just rent a decent car in the meantime, alright?

Once you get to the Hertz counter though, you're like, "God renting a Chrysler 300 is expensive. That's like $300 a day! WTF? I could lease one for $300 a month! Okay, fine, I'll settle for the non-premium full-sized model. Those new Impalas are pretty handsome..."

Jake Peavy is an expensive rental, but he's a veteran, a former Cy Young winner, and an experienced NL West arm. Maybe something will click and he'll feel reborn. His 1-9 record doesn't look good at all, but his team sucked this year, and looking at his peripherals, it looks like he's had some bad luck. He also had to pitch in the AL East. Which is littered with hitters' parks and big time sluggers.

I'm not going to pore over stats here, but I'll say that yes, he's lost a lot off his fastball. It's the same issue Lincecum and Cain are learning to pitch with. It doesn't have the same effectiveness that it once did, forcing him to work with more offspeed stuff, which inevitably leads to more walks and hanging pitches that get clubbed.

But look, it's Peavy or Petit... or Kickham while Cain is out. The truth is unfortunately, we don't know what we can expect from Cain the rest of this season. It's a no brainer to me.

Hembree during his callup last year.

The other side of this is the prospects that we had to give up, Heath Hembree and Edwin Escobar.

I won't sit here and claim to be an expert on what these minor leaguers project as. I'm not a scout. I don't go and watch these guys pitch. All I can do is regurgitate what the experts say.

What the experts say is that Hembree projects to be a decent reliever. His ceiling is a decent closer or setup man, and his floor is an average right handed reliever.

We've heard about Hembree for years, and yet he's not a big leaguer. He has an ERA near 4.00 this year, and I think it's about damn time that he figured this stuff out, because he's apparently had the ability and arsenal to be successful this whole time.

Secondly, Edwin Escobar, a southpaw starter in AA who is related to Kelvim and Alcides Escobar is rated as the Giants' #2 prospect overall, went to Boston in the Peavy deal.

Seems steep.

Well it is and it isn't.

Baseball America seems to think the guy's ceiling is as a 4th starter. That's nothing to scoff at, but it's also pretty indicative of how absolutely piss poor this farm system is. Just as an example, our second best prospect projects as a 4th starter, and our best prospect, Kyle Crick, has some scouts wondering if he's a back of the bullpen reliever, and possibly not even a starter.

Recently the A's traded shortstop Addison Russell to the Cubs for Jeff Samardzija. He was their top prospect. Billy Beane says he's the next Barry Larkin.

Who does Kyle Crick project to be?  Escobar?

Certainly nowhere near the breadth of a Barry Larkin-type comparison.

That's why prospect rankings are so relative. This top prospect is Barry Larkin and the other one is Chad Qualls.

So yes, we gave up some solid prospects for Peavy, but as we know, starting pitching doesn't grow on trees and you have to give up something to get something. The Cardinals were also in on Peavy, and undoubtedly drove the price up. In addition, this team just doesn't have the pieces to make a huge Samardzija or Price move work. It's simply not possible.

So look, the team has plugged a couple of former all-stars into the dike's holes for now, and it's not very sexy, but it's going to have to do, because Zobrist and Price ain't walking through that door unless the Rays are in town.

Giants pulling it together despite a bad Panda

Sometimes things click, and sometimes they don't. For these Giants, the offense has once again come back to life, and the bullpen has been excellent. Despite the loss in Pittsburgh on the the play at the plate (today I hate replay), we're looking at a first place team 8 games over .500.

How are they doing this? Well, it's really Giants baseball at its finest give or take.

At AT&T Park thus far, these Giants have managed to earn a 10-5 record, but lest we forget that it could easily be a 5-10 mark. Along the shores of the Cove, they're only managed a middling .251 average, with a 7th worst mark of only 40 extra base hits.

How then have they managed such a solid record? Winning one run games with great pitching.

Even when our starters have been less than stellar, these guys are managing to put up just one more run than the opposition-- the averages tell exactly that. The offense is putting up 3.9 runs a game. The pitching has allowed a league low 44 runs at home, and yes, that equals 2.9 r/pg.

One run games at home you say? Well I never!

On the road though, despite what it seems, these guys have an even worse team average (.236), but surprisingly score almost one more run per game (4.8 r/pg), and their opponents score about 4 runs a game.

That's actually about right when you think about how AT&T Park affects the numbers.

What's just odd about these guys is that they've had hitting that to the eyeball appears to be vastly improved-- and yet the averages are middling, the RISP is only .246, and the power production at home is weak.

This is just one of those cases when averages aren't telling the entire story and a case when the sum of this team's parts add up to something better than you'd expect.

Essentially this lineup has a dead spot or two (excluding pitchers) every time it rolls out there. It's the creaky spot in the floor and the ungreased hinge that wakes up your parents at 3am when you try to sneak back into the house drunk in high school.

Those dead spots are essentially Pablo Sandoval and any non-regular that plays that day.

How bad are these non-regulars? They are terrible. More on that later.

I'm not going to give too much crap to Brandon Hicks, whose been a nice surprise with the longball, but he's still hitting just .208-- very Mark Reynolds-ish. But as long as we're looking at him, let's note that he hits .150 at home, .270 on the road, and has a .313 average with RISP. Curious, but still a decent replacement for Old Man Scutaro and his bad back.

Sandoval meanwhile...

Seriously dude, what the hell? I've seen you in bad streaks before, but this... this is something else entirely. Everything seemed to align nicely for you to have a massive contract year. But alas, you've changed too much. Your smaller waistline hasn't helped you at the plate, and now your mental problems stemming from pressure have gotten the better of you.

I refuse to believe that this contract situation has not affected him, because even he is normally incapable of such consistent ineptitude. It's as plain as day though, he quite simply has sucked, and isn't doing any of the things he normally does.

Thankfully, while trying to figure out his 2014 patterns, Eno Sarris over at Fangraphs had already figured it all out.

His conclusions? Panda is no longer swinging at the first pitch.

Huh?

Seems crazy that the guy who we drill into the ground year after year for swinging at the first pitch could have possibly slowed his roll to his own detriment. But maybe his most maddening habit was helping him after all.

From Sarris at Fangraphs:

So he’s swinging less and reaching less, but unfortunately, he’s also swinging at pitches inside the zone less, too. But it turns out, *when* he’s swinging is much more important than *which pitches* he’s swinging at. Look at his swing percentage on the first pitch over the course of his career: 

Credit: Eno Sarris from Fangraphs.com

That's good work, Eno.

This is more than an anomaly. This is a guy trying to overhaul his entire approach at the plate and failing miserably.

You're seeing him force himself into taking pitches and starting off more often with an 0-1 count. Throw in a couple lousy swings, and you have yourself a .168 average with a 22% strikeout rate-- a full 7 points higher than his mark last season. He's not swinging, then swinging, missing, or making outs too consistently for this to keep itself up. Instead of that $100 mil his slimewad agent is looking for, he's going to end up on the free market with an unsightly qualifying offer looming over his head and a career worst year to his name.

Other dead spots? How about the entire bench? Arias, Perez, Blanco, Adrianza? Horrendous. Not sure, but if they keep this up, we're probably talking historically bad.

With the lone exception of Hector Sanchez, who's shown signs of life recently and has done a nice job behind the plate, we're talking about one of the worst-hitting benches in baseball.

Luckily they're all slick with the glove, because this is bad news. Arias, Perez, Blanco, and Perez are a combined 17-123 for a nauseating .138 average, 3 extra base hits, and 0 HR (as of 5/6).

No one expected any of these guys to put on a Pink Floyd Dustin Pedroia laser show, but Jesus, this is bad.

Lord knows Bochy tries to get these guys in there to kickstart them and give their main guys a breather, but at some point, I'd rather have a tired regular than a sub .200 hitting bench guy making routine plays then routinely grounding out. At some point, we're going to have to think about pulling up a hot bat from Fresno like Nick Noonan and rolling the dice.

As for pitching, it has been all about Tim Hudson and The Bullpen (which should be a band name immediately). Huddy has been worth every penny and then some, and the bullpen has been huge. While Bumgarner has been hit or miss (mostly hit in his last few starts), and Cain, Timmy, and Vogey are all a coin flip these days, Hudson has allowed more than 2 runs only once, and has been an absolute pillar of strength every fifth day. He's one of those guys that I just wish we'd had on our team earlier in his career-- not that it even matters, because he's pitching like a Cy Young candidate.

The only guys in the bullpen with an ERA over 1.88 are Gutierrez (3.60), (Huff, DL, 3.86) and Petit, who got lit up as an ill-prepared spot starter for Cain. His ERA before that start was 2.61 as a mostly bullpen oriented swingman.

Casilla has been a monst, and Jean Machi has been unbelievable. And in case you didn't know, Machi and his 5 wins (I know, I know) are leading Major League Baseball.

BITCHES!

I honestly like the way things are going with this team. There's always room for complaint and improvement, but with the run production they've managed, plus a stalwart bullpen, I think this team will be in 1st place a good chunk of this year or bare minimum knocking on the door.

Giants could be seriously good, but also mortal

I waited a week to jump in here and write something intentionally, as to not overreact about such a small sample size. Seeing as though week one ended on a pretty lousy note in LA, I feel as though we've all been doused with a little bit of reality after a pretty sizzling start.

We're not going to win 110 games. Belt isn't going to break Bonds's HR record, and Pagan won't hit .450 the rest of the way. But what we do know, is that this 2014 incarnation of our beloved Giants could be-- and I emphasize could be, as good or better than the 2012 Champions.

For once, the lineup appears to be well... really good. There's a pretty nice mix of power and contact throughout the lineup, and honestly, I think the days of finishing in the bottom 5 in runs scored and HRs is over. Prior to the season, we all looked at the lineup on paper and thought, "Wow. If this goes right, and that guy stays healthy, and this guy continues getting better, we could score a lot of runs."

Well, things are beginning to fall into place, now aren't they? Every single one of our power hitters has hit a HR, and effing Brandon Belt has 4. FOUR HOME RUNS! Like... seriously?

Seriously. I saw them.

The Belt development is the single most important event to happen to this lineup since I don't know when... probably since we added Pence via trade.

Forget what he's on pace for, but instead just sit back and acknowledge that Belty has finally figured it out, and is a legitimate power hitting corner infielder. Many of us knew it was a matter of time, others thought he would never pan out and were on the Brett Pill Crazy Train to nowhere.

With what we've seen so far. Belt is not only a lock for 25 dingers and an .800+ OPS with good defense, but we're talking potential all-star selection.

I know it's only 7 games, but this metamorphosis began last year with the grip change, and you all saw how he improved. This didn't just come out of nowhere.

Someone who did kinda come out of nowhere was Brandon Hicks, or Brandon #3, or B3 for short. Is that going to catch on? No? Okay, I tried though.

A former 3rd round pick of Atlanta, Hicks was a long shot to make the team at all. Now he's making some serious noise at the plate. The guy is doubling, hitting home runs... all out of nowhere. Of course, he'll probably cool off, but just the fact that there's a guy on our team capable of replacing Scutaro that has pop? Just what the doctor ordered... as long as Bochy doesn't take too many ABs away from B3 in favor of Adrianza so that he cools off.

Another guy the doctor ordered is Mike Morse. Man, it sure is nice to have him on this team. I know he's a bit injury prone and he will strike out a good deal. But the guy can hit. He's contributed in a number of different ways at the dish, including a crazy bomb in LA that went like 450 feet. Also, he hasn't hurt us defensively yet, and the 7th inning Gregor Blanco substitution thing seems to work just fine.

All in all, I could not be happier with this lineup right now, save for Scutaro basically hanging in career limbo with this bad back of his. I asked Twitter and Facebook recently that if all they got out of Marco's $20MM contract was this picture and the 2012 World Series, was it worth it? There was a resounding yes, and a couple smart asses that said he was re-signed after that. Yeah geniuses. Thanks for that.

Now the pitching, I'm not so sold on. Of all the idiotic things John Kruk rambled on about on Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN, the one thing that I hate to agree with but do is, "I don't know if the Giants have the pitching to get done this year."

Sucks, but from what we've seen so far, it might be true. As I see it, there are two guys-- Madison Bumgarner and Tim Hudson-- that are going to be rock solid performers every 5th day. There's Matt Cain, who will be somewhere between decent and good, and then there's the Wild Cards, Lincecum and Vogelsong.

Granted, Vogelsong did very well in his first start, and I think that's a seriously encouraging sign. Let's keep our fingers crossed on him. However, we need to face the possibility that he may begin to suck and will be run out of town in a more delicate fashion than Todd Wellemeyer once was. We owe Vogey that much.

Lincecum is probably going to have another season of 4.50-4.75 ERA ball with maddening starts of equal parts brilliance and gopher balls. That's been the trend the last two seasons, and I just don't see it changing unfortunately. His propensity to give up the long ball and get bogged down in big innings will be his undoing half the time, and that's what we'll likely get. A beloved .500 pitcher-- like your smartphone a year and a half into your two year Verizon agreement. Completely maddening.

Cain to me is the most concerning. He's beginning 2014 much the way he began 2013-- by giving up HRs in bunches and bunches. Just like last year, it's concerning as hell, but there's evidence to suggest that he can avoid these things somehow. It's as if he's cruising along, and things are fine, then boom-- gone. Two batters later? Gone again. I just don't understand.

It should be of course noted that last season Cainer did improve toward the second half of the year, and cut down on the long ball. If not, I'm afraid, he'll be more in the Lincecum category than the Bumgarner one, and that's not going to win us that 3rd even year World Series in a row.

And John Kruk will be right.

We can't have that.

So everyone, take the first week for what it was-- a week, but just know that this team has the potential to be seriously good, and that it's probably going to come down to pitching-- just like every other year.

And I hate the Dodgers.