Giants pulling it together despite a bad Panda

Sometimes things click, and sometimes they don't. For these Giants, the offense has once again come back to life, and the bullpen has been excellent. Despite the loss in Pittsburgh on the the play at the plate (today I hate replay), we're looking at a first place team 8 games over .500.

How are they doing this? Well, it's really Giants baseball at its finest give or take.

At AT&T Park thus far, these Giants have managed to earn a 10-5 record, but lest we forget that it could easily be a 5-10 mark. Along the shores of the Cove, they're only managed a middling .251 average, with a 7th worst mark of only 40 extra base hits.

How then have they managed such a solid record? Winning one run games with great pitching.

Even when our starters have been less than stellar, these guys are managing to put up just one more run than the opposition-- the averages tell exactly that. The offense is putting up 3.9 runs a game. The pitching has allowed a league low 44 runs at home, and yes, that equals 2.9 r/pg.

One run games at home you say? Well I never!

On the road though, despite what it seems, these guys have an even worse team average (.236), but surprisingly score almost one more run per game (4.8 r/pg), and their opponents score about 4 runs a game.

That's actually about right when you think about how AT&T Park affects the numbers.

What's just odd about these guys is that they've had hitting that to the eyeball appears to be vastly improved-- and yet the averages are middling, the RISP is only .246, and the power production at home is weak.

This is just one of those cases when averages aren't telling the entire story and a case when the sum of this team's parts add up to something better than you'd expect.

Essentially this lineup has a dead spot or two (excluding pitchers) every time it rolls out there. It's the creaky spot in the floor and the ungreased hinge that wakes up your parents at 3am when you try to sneak back into the house drunk in high school.

Those dead spots are essentially Pablo Sandoval and any non-regular that plays that day.

How bad are these non-regulars? They are terrible. More on that later.

I'm not going to give too much crap to Brandon Hicks, whose been a nice surprise with the longball, but he's still hitting just .208-- very Mark Reynolds-ish. But as long as we're looking at him, let's note that he hits .150 at home, .270 on the road, and has a .313 average with RISP. Curious, but still a decent replacement for Old Man Scutaro and his bad back.

Sandoval meanwhile...

Seriously dude, what the hell? I've seen you in bad streaks before, but this... this is something else entirely. Everything seemed to align nicely for you to have a massive contract year. But alas, you've changed too much. Your smaller waistline hasn't helped you at the plate, and now your mental problems stemming from pressure have gotten the better of you.

I refuse to believe that this contract situation has not affected him, because even he is normally incapable of such consistent ineptitude. It's as plain as day though, he quite simply has sucked, and isn't doing any of the things he normally does.

Thankfully, while trying to figure out his 2014 patterns, Eno Sarris over at Fangraphs had already figured it all out.

His conclusions? Panda is no longer swinging at the first pitch.

Huh?

Seems crazy that the guy who we drill into the ground year after year for swinging at the first pitch could have possibly slowed his roll to his own detriment. But maybe his most maddening habit was helping him after all.

From Sarris at Fangraphs:

So he’s swinging less and reaching less, but unfortunately, he’s also swinging at pitches inside the zone less, too. But it turns out, *when* he’s swinging is much more important than *which pitches* he’s swinging at. Look at his swing percentage on the first pitch over the course of his career: 

Credit: Eno Sarris from Fangraphs.com

That's good work, Eno.

This is more than an anomaly. This is a guy trying to overhaul his entire approach at the plate and failing miserably.

You're seeing him force himself into taking pitches and starting off more often with an 0-1 count. Throw in a couple lousy swings, and you have yourself a .168 average with a 22% strikeout rate-- a full 7 points higher than his mark last season. He's not swinging, then swinging, missing, or making outs too consistently for this to keep itself up. Instead of that $100 mil his slimewad agent is looking for, he's going to end up on the free market with an unsightly qualifying offer looming over his head and a career worst year to his name.

Other dead spots? How about the entire bench? Arias, Perez, Blanco, Adrianza? Horrendous. Not sure, but if they keep this up, we're probably talking historically bad.

With the lone exception of Hector Sanchez, who's shown signs of life recently and has done a nice job behind the plate, we're talking about one of the worst-hitting benches in baseball.

Luckily they're all slick with the glove, because this is bad news. Arias, Perez, Blanco, and Perez are a combined 17-123 for a nauseating .138 average, 3 extra base hits, and 0 HR (as of 5/6).

No one expected any of these guys to put on a Pink Floyd Dustin Pedroia laser show, but Jesus, this is bad.

Lord knows Bochy tries to get these guys in there to kickstart them and give their main guys a breather, but at some point, I'd rather have a tired regular than a sub .200 hitting bench guy making routine plays then routinely grounding out. At some point, we're going to have to think about pulling up a hot bat from Fresno like Nick Noonan and rolling the dice.

As for pitching, it has been all about Tim Hudson and The Bullpen (which should be a band name immediately). Huddy has been worth every penny and then some, and the bullpen has been huge. While Bumgarner has been hit or miss (mostly hit in his last few starts), and Cain, Timmy, and Vogey are all a coin flip these days, Hudson has allowed more than 2 runs only once, and has been an absolute pillar of strength every fifth day. He's one of those guys that I just wish we'd had on our team earlier in his career-- not that it even matters, because he's pitching like a Cy Young candidate.

The only guys in the bullpen with an ERA over 1.88 are Gutierrez (3.60), (Huff, DL, 3.86) and Petit, who got lit up as an ill-prepared spot starter for Cain. His ERA before that start was 2.61 as a mostly bullpen oriented swingman.

Casilla has been a monst, and Jean Machi has been unbelievable. And in case you didn't know, Machi and his 5 wins (I know, I know) are leading Major League Baseball.

BITCHES!

I honestly like the way things are going with this team. There's always room for complaint and improvement, but with the run production they've managed, plus a stalwart bullpen, I think this team will be in 1st place a good chunk of this year or bare minimum knocking on the door.

Giants simply must play better or else

As I write this, the Giants sit within striking distance of the NL West at 5.5 GB. They're still 7 games under .500, and they still aren't hitting on all cylinders, but they're alive.

With Timmy's no-hitter heading into the break and grabbing 2 of 3 to open the "so-called second half" (as Dave Flemming would put it) against Arizona, things appear to be trending in an upward fashion.

Clearly, they have their work cut out for them, with a capable Arizona team and the hyper-streaking Doyers sitting ahead of them in the standings.

Affeldt is now on the DL, resulting in more Jean Machi appearances, and the starting lineup is still mired in mediocrity, but I refuse to believe that Pablo, Pence, and Crawford will continue to hit at well below average clips.

As those three guys go, the Giants too will go.

It's clear that LF is still an issue, with 2B-turned OF Kensuke Tanaka not an overall upgrade over Andres Torres, and Francoeur still an unknown quantity. Personally, I'd like to see if a full-time Frenchy can get it going. At least he's got a cannon in LF, if nothing else.

The pitching staff is inconsistent, but is performing better than the beginning of the season.

The problem is this team has to play better with what they have before Brian Sabean can justify making any significant moves to upgrade this roster. Obviously, it's easier said than done in both respects, but it's crystal clear that this currently isn't a team that can make a run at this division without an immediate improvement from within.

Unfortunately, the whole lightning in a bottle thing that won two titles has yet to be captured, and there is no quick fix available. The theory that the Giants sold their soul to win in '10 and '12 certainly looks like there's a little merit to it as game after game, they're unable to put it all together.

As I mentioned in previous posts, this team needs an immediate infusion of pitching of some kind, and there's nothing available internally that will solve this issue right now.

As we speak, there are only 5 guys on the Fresno Grizzlies roster that have an ERA under 3. And of those 5, Jake Dunning, Sandy Rosario, and Jean Machi are already on the big league roster, and the other two guys have a combined 3 appearances. Heath Hembree if you're wondering, has 21 saves, but has an ERA hovering around 4.50. Obviously, AAA has been cashed out, and there aren't really any standouts in AA either.

Unfortunately for the Giants, the minors have little in the way of ML ready talent, and that puts the front office in a bit of a quandary.

Do they deal some A Ball level pitching prospects to get better now, in a season that is not guaranteed by any stretch? I would lean toward no.

The opportunity to add arms by taking on money for a middling prospect is likely the route that Sabean will have to go, unless the asking price for guys like Bud Norris come down.

With Zito (team option), Lincecum, Vogelsong (team option), and Chad "Gurney" Gaudin all set to hit the free agent market at the end of this season, it would behoove the Giants to make a meaningful move to secure controllable pitching that could help anchor the rotation beyond 2013.

A name that has recently surfaced as a possibility, is Kansas City's Ervin Santana (formerly of the Angels). Due to be a free agent, Santana is 6-6 with a 3.18 ERA. He should probably be available, although the Royals are apparently not ready to give up on the season yet. He's due somewhere around $5.5MM for the rest of the season.

The truth of the matter is that there isn't a ton out there in the ways of starting pitching, and the guys that are there are either really expensive prospect-wise like Jake Peavy, or really in demand.

The little wrinkle in this is that Ryan Vogelsong is supposed to be ready to go in 2-3 weeks. We can't forget how awful he was before he went down, but he's certainly capable of helping this team if he's back on track. This simple addition from within could really change the entire landscape of the pitching staff-- enabling either Vogey, Gaudin, or possibly the struggling Zito to become a reliever and bumping Machi down to Fresno.

As it stands, we can't count on that and the best solution may be to add a reliever.With the non-waiver trade deadline in less than two weeks, I fully expect that to happenr. A lefty would be optimal, but a righty like John Axford from Milwaukee would certainly fit the bill.

I know, I know, but he's only given up one earned run since May 15th.

Also, I would be remiss if I didn't mention Brian Wilson again, who is reportedly on track to showcase himself to teams in the next few weeks. The Giants have been reported as being interested in kicking his crazy tires once again.

It sounds like a broken record-- and it really is-- but the Giants are going to have play better with what they have rather than expecting some kind of miracle acquisition from the outside.

Are they capable of improvement? Of course, but we just haven't seen it, and they're running out of time.

Bullpen issues plague the Giants

Scutaro completes yet another comeback.

We know how to come back from behind, that's for sure. This team, like 2010, seems to never say die, and always seems to get it done in the late innings. Lord, do we appreciate that, but how about sometimes we just don't fall behind to begin with?

Our pitching ain't what it was, that's for damn sure. We got spoiled with our superior rotation and superior bullpen and superior closer. The honest to God truth is that we have a slightly above average bullpen, and a strong rotation. Sorry. No superiority here.

Vogelsong has had a few rough starts, Lincecum is about as steady as a heroin addict trying to detox on ice skates, and Zito is just a wild card.

That's the good news.

The bad news is that Bruce Bochy, as solid as he is in so many decisions, continually sticks with the wrong guys until it's too late.

You see what he does with Zito and Lincecum now. They're on a short-ass leash. He's starting to view them like the rest of us. He can tell when they don't have it and knows when things are inevitably going to spiral out of control.

He yanks them.

Well it's time for Bruce to start being more careful with this bullpen.

I get it. He's a player's manager. He's loyal, he's understanding, and he's even-keeled. He doesn't make knee-jerk reactions like the rest of us. Bruce Bochy is like one of those big ass fuel tankers out in the ocean. It takes forever for him to stop and change direction, but when he does, his new course is usually the correct one. You can see a demonstration of this when he walks to the mound to make a pitching change. You can almost hear his old catcher's knees creaking like a haunted house's unoiled hinges and loose floorboards.

If I have one request of the skipper these days, it is the following:

It's time to relegate George Kontos to a smaller role, and Shane Loux is to be removed from the discussion entirely.

It's like, "Dude. Do you not understand that George Kontos lets two thirds of his inherited runners to score?"

For Christ's sake Bruce, he does it almost EVERY TIME.

This is the #1 Google Image result for George Kontos.

Technically as of this page's updating, he's allowed 10 of 21 inherited runners to score, 12 of 23 if it hadn't been updated since Sunday.

The point is that Kontos cannot deal with the pressure of coming into a sticky situation.

As bad as Casilla has been at times this season, he's still only allowed 7 of 25 inherited runners to score. Why not bring him in during a jam in the 6th? He's not the closer anymore, does it really matter when he comes in?

I know my ranting isn't the best writing job, but this can't be something all of you are not already upset about.

And Shane Loux? Dude, I'm sorry this whole baseball thing hasn't worked out. You stuck with it, but you're like 31, and it ain't happening. Hopefully you can find success in another field. Maybe coaching or something.

All I know is that if Bochy carts him out there again, I'm going to pull my hair out. He was sent to Fresno for a reason earlier this season-- just like Steve Edlefsen-- and he has no business pitching in a pennant race. I'm sorry, but it's true.

Now this Jean Machi character may have something to contribute. He's 30, and you just saw his solid outing against Arizona as his first major league appearance. He looked good. Let's give him a shot.

It's all just very unsettled and scary to me other than Romo and Lopez.

I have a feeling that Bochy is just trying to rest some of the important arms by giving some September callups an inning or two, I get that. But, some of these guys just aren't able to contribute in all situations.

If there's just one point to this badly structured rant of a blog post, it's that Kontos needs to start innings, not finish them. We see it, why has it taken so long for Bochy to see it?

Anyway, that's what I've got right now. Nothing profound was said here, but I'm just thinking out loud and trying to make sense of some of these moves.

Let's just keep winning!