Good thing the Giants re-signed Vogelsong, huh?

Scarcely a day has passed in this ODD YEAR, and things are getting really weird already (See the title of my Opening Day post).

Cain giving the finger to his pitching arm.

No one quite knew the state of Matt Cain, but we were all expecting him to pitch in Phoenix this week. The excitement of his triumphant return has been quashed, like cow shit shoveled by a rancher onto an out of control burn pile. No, he's not set for Tommy John, but my God does that cow manure fire smell terrible.

That fire smells even worse now because a bunch of animal hair blew into it, and it's all Jake Peavy's back's fault.

Vogey is getting chainsaw angry.

Downwind of this shitty hair fire started by Cain and Peavy stands Ryan Vogelsong, the King of Shoulder Chip Mountain, calmly eating an enchilada, nostrils flaring, intense eyes burning-- not due to acrid smoke, but because he's ready to prove everyone wrong for the 417th time.

This fragile, inconsistent, aging rotation (minus Bum of course) was an issue from day one. Fortunately the Giants have a solid quantity of potentially quality arms ready to step in and piss on a few fires. Vogelsong, who thought he was destined to a season of long relief, becomes the first man up during the first series of the season.

No one knows whether he's going to be a guy that can rack up more quality starts than not, but as we know, he seems to thrive on doubt and pressure. He wills himself to get big outs, and has resurrected his career more times that anyone can count.

I love Vogey's fight and his spirit. Hopefully, we will love his pitching, as he attempts to fill the void left by Cain and Peavy, however long it may last.

Thoughts and stuff

• HAY PABLOO! HAVE ANOTHAH LOBSTAH ROLL YA BASTAHD! (Pablo went 0-3 with a Silver Sombrero in his first game as a Sawk. Good.
• Unfortunately, Pablo's BFF Hanjob Ramirez hit two home runs. Can't win em all I guess.
• I feel like Game 1/162 is going to be a microcosm of 2015. Everything from the Romo double to Roberto Kelly's stop sign, to...
• ...the top of the order being AWESOME. How bout those OBP machines Aoki, Panik, and Pagan?? Yeah!!! I can't tell you how nice it is to have a team that gets hits. I don't even care that they just hit a bunch of singles. We've had years when we don't even get THAT.
•  I'll take a team that hits a bunch of consistent singles than a team that hits a HR once a game.
• It's ironic that a guy that is just so awesome is referred to as "Bum" so often.
• Anyone see how the Marlins had a rain delay in their retractable roof stadium? Apparently how they judge whether to open or close it is based on three executives who check apps on their phones and let stadium staff know. Perhaps it's time to consult an expert. Good luck getting Jeff Loria to sign off on that.
• List of new Dodgers that we have to hate: Jimmy Rollins, Brandon McCarthy, Brett Anderson, Howie Kendrick, Yasmani Grandal, and Joc Pederson. 
• I was watching the Madres-Doyers game at work yesterday and Jimmy Rollins hit a 3 run homer because Shawn Kelly and Yonder Alonzo couldn't figure out where first base was. Rollins is on my list now, whether we like it or not. It's a shame.
• Also a bummer that we have to hate Brett Anderson and Brandon McCarthy, who absolutely OWN Twitter. McCarthy just called some Yankee fan a "tit" the other day. Gold Jerry! Gold!
• Classy move by Arizona to honor Lon Simmons. Kuiper was surprised that they did that, because he has been retired for some time and didn't have connections to Arizona. But, Kuip forgot that Lon Simmons has connections to the Oakland A's, and Tony LaRussa and Dave Stewart now run the Diamondbacks. So classy move, TLR and Old High Voice.
• When new Cubs manager Joe Maddon hit Jon Lester 8th on Sunday, do you think Tony LaRussa called him to congratulate him or did he ask for royalties? #PitchersHit8th
• Casey McGehee and Nori Aoki will be fan favorites almost immediately. Guaranteeing it.

Like Morse, just enjoy the ride

There's really something to be said for being able to totally relax and enjoy what's going on around you. It's the way you feel on vacation, the way you feel when you gaze out at something beautiful with nowhere to be; your phone only making an appearance to take a picture because there's no service anyway.


It's an odd feeling-- almost surreal when it happens. But it just feels right.


That's the way I'm feeling when watching the Giants these days-- like I don't have a friggin care in the world and nowhere to be.

That's how good they've been.



Hell, even ESPN has noticed. That's how good they've been.

It's been awhile since my last post, partly because there's been no controversy, barely any conflict or poor decisions being made. It almost seems... do I dare say... easy.


In that last post, I wrote that the Giants would be alright without Brandon Belt. Not only have they been alright, they've hit some sort of zone, that can only be enhanced by Belty's return in a couple weeks.


It's difficult to even imagine that they'll be regaining another bat with superb defense when the current lineup has been so successful.


So much of that success can be attributed to Mike Morse and everything he does. He's played an admirable first base and left field, has absolutely raked the ball, and you can just tell, has had a huge impact on the Giants' clubhouse. He's having fun playing baseball and I'm having fun watching him.


It's unfortunate that he's only on a one year deal, because whatever magic Mike has brought to the clubhouse (see what I did there?) and to the lineup, I don't want it to end. Pay the man immediately.


Currently Morse ranks in the top 20 in all of MLB in HR, RBI, Slugging %, and OPS-- something this team has needed for years and years. Curiously though, for you Saberjerks, Morse is only a 0.9 WAR.


See, this is why I have a problem with that stat. It's not an end all be all, and there's exceptions to the rule. I won't go off on a huge tangent, but to say that Mike Morse has only been worth one extra win to this team is beyond absurd. He's been a shot of adrenaline into this lineup and a shot of tequila in the clubhouse. Plus he did this on Stan Lee / Superheroes Night. Hulk status.

 

There of course have been others that have been amazing additions this season-- most notably the ageless Tim Hudson, who has pitched like a Cy Young candidate. However, there's one other guy that has essentially been an addition that I'd like to talk about.

Ryan Vogelsong.

Is he an addition? You betcha. Yah. *Fargo voice*

He may not be a new face around these parts, but Vogey's resurgence to an effective, chainsaw-angry member of the rotation has been huge, especially due to Cain's uneven season and Lincecum, well... being Lincecum.

Vogey currently sports a 3.39 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, with 7 of his 12 starts have been "quality".

His starts have been such a far cry from what we all expected from him, that's it's just gravy. I can't say for sure that he'll be able to keep this up all season, but his efforts have been absolutely huge so far. You could even argue he's been more helpful to the cause than Matt Cain, which is crazy. If Vogey keeps this up, even remotely close to what he's done thus far, the Giants' rotation will outperform expectations all season.

Outperforming expectations has been the name of the game so far, and it's just been plain fun to watch. Posey and Panda have hit rough patches this year at different times, but they've evened out. The Giants keep winning. Pence had a rough start. They win anyway. Belt goes down? No problem. Cain on the DL? Whatever. Buster and Pagan need days off? Oh well, they win without them. Blanco gets some starts? He's a catalyst all the sudden.

It's just insanity.

It's remarkable too how Bruce Bochy has been able to work guys in and out of the lineup lately without much consequence in the win column. It all just works out... and believe me, I've noticed.

Right after Lincecum gave up that first HR to Granderson:

That brings me back to my opening paragraph. You just need to sit back and enjoy the scenery. 21 games over .500 on June 8th is crazy, and it been thoroughly fun.

Part of my ability to just sit back and enjoy this is because we have those two big trophies from 2010 and 2012. Just as the second trophy validated the first, this great start is on its way to validating those other years.

When we won that 2nd World Series, it felt different than the first one. The first one was insane... even with a commanding series lead over Texas, it was gut-wrenching and nail-biting until that final out. With the second one, a feeling a confidence swept over me after we won the first two games. Because even if something bad happened and they blew it, we'd always have 2010. I was able to drink and joke with people against the Tigers without having to get a referral to a cardiologist. It was just plain more fun.

Now, back in an even year, those first two trophies are the Fort Knox full of gold bars that backs up this 2014 currency. I'm able to enjoy it more because I still feel like we're playing with house money. And that my friends, is priceless.

Giant pitching questions this offseason

Firstly, I apologize for not writing much in the waning moments of the 2013 season. It just got too depressing, too frustrating, and the same issues were being discussed ad nauseum by every source and blog between here and Timbuktu (which is in Mali, in case you're wondering). Mali is the same place that "Would Be" Champions shirts get sent. Even they are discussing whether the Giants will re-sign Tim Lincecum, while clad in 2007 Rockies World Series Champions shirts.

The pitching issues facing the Giants following an embarrassing World Series defense-- if you call what they did in 2013 defending a championship-- are long and well-documented. But, let's do it again, just for old time's sake.

Under club control with buyouts

Barry Zito ($7MM buyout)
Ryan Vogelsong ($6.5MM club option w/$300k buyout)

Unrestricted FAs

Chad Gaudin
Javier Lopez
Tim Lincecum



"Analysis" (Look at me, I"m a blog analyst! I think I'm cool!)

To me, Zito is gone; he just has to be. He had his sendoff, he got his curtain calls, and we had the lovefest. Giants fans are the most sentimental in baseball, and that's fine. I love being part of such a loving group of fans. But let's be real. Enough is enough with Zeets. He's not good, he never really was, and yes we appreciate the great performances in the 2012 postseason. I wish him the best, but it can no longer be on my team as a player. I'd welcome him to the coaching staff.

Vogelsong is an interesting case. He showed signs after his return from injury that he was capable of being a starting pitcher. But he also showed some signs that he was the horrendous first half pitcher in 2013 during the back stretch. I know he's a stubborn, chainsaw-angry, motivated son of a bitch, so I'm willing to give him another shot if I'm Brian Sabean. However, I buy him out of his deal at $300k, and say, "Look man, we like you here, and we don't think you're finished, but based on last year, we can't justify $6.5 mil. We'll offer you the $300k, plus a base of $2 million, and we'll incentivize (is that a word?) the shit out of your contract. Cool? Now excuse me while I answer my Moto Razr flip phone."

If Vogey says no, then I wish him the best as well. He's a good dude, a better story, and was an inspiration.

Chad "Grope-din" is a guy I'd like back. Assuming this whole "groped a woman on a gurney at 4am in a Las Vegas hospital" thing was a misunderstanding-- or rather there was a better explanation than him being absolutely shitfaced and a complete scumbag, then I'd like him back.

Gaudin was an invaluable part of the Giants' staff last season, and kept things from getting completely "Houston Astros bad" when Vogelsong went down. That of course weakened the bullpen, but his versatility was a necessity in 2013. A 2-3 year deal in the $10MM range isn't out of the question, and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets way more from another desperate team. He was obviously fatigued from all the extra groping innings that piled up on his arm, and is better suited as a long man in the pen and part time swingman starter. Regardless, he's a helpful piece, and I'd like him back.

Javier Lopez is an absolute necessity to be back. He sported better numbers than 2012 and shows no signs of slowing down-- especially against lefties. That's his job, he does it well, and a raise from the $4.25MM he made in 2013 is certainly warranted. If I'm Lopez, I look at the $5MM Affeldt is guaranteed through 2015 and say, "I'll have what he's having, plus a full tank of gas, a bloomin' onion from Outback with extra sauce MIND YOU. I'M TIRED OF RUNNING OUT OF BLOOMIN' ONION SAUCE."

Pay the man.

And now to Timmy.

I'm not going to go through why we like Lincecum, we all know his history with the team. As Tim McGraw might've said, "We like him, we love him, and some of us want some more of him."

Unlike Tim McGraw in his song about a hot chick, Giants brass and fans are a bit divided on whether bringing back Lincecum is the correct move.

He showed signs of life in 2013 after a 2012 regular season that could be described nicely as embarrassing. Still, he finished with a 4.37 ERA while making $22 million last year. Among the 79 qualified starters last year, that ERA mark is tied with Wily Peralta of the Brewers for 11th worst in baseball. If you're into WAR, which I'm not, he placed 16th in the league at 1.6 games above average. He walked people at the 10th highest rate in baseball, and his overall numbers are just hit and miss-- just like his starts.

I say he's all even-steven with the Giants when you think big picture. He outperformed small salaries early in his career and underperformed with big salaries recently. He won 2 CYs, 2 Championships, threw a no-no, and if this is the last we see of him, I'm okay with that.

But, if he's willing to be reasonable about his value and accept a deal in the neighborhood of $6-8MM a year for 2-3 years with incentives, then I'm fine with having him back.

Anything more than that, and he can go back home to Seattle and toss fish around with Pete Carroll in the rain.

I hate the Seahawks.

Pitching staff big picture

Beyond Cain and Bumgarner, the future is murky.

Assuming Zito and Vogelsong are not back, and the potential departure of Lincecum, we're talking about replacing 60% of the rotation-- and possibly needing to place its insurance policy, Chad Gaudin.

Sabean has some work to do, and I just hope this team doesn't have to overpay for pitching in some sick Zito-like scenario just to plug a couple holes.

With its present outstanding questions, there's no way this team can be considered a World Series contender. If Vogey, Timmy, Gaudin, and Lopez all return, and someone like Petit gets a shot at the rotation, we're basically the same as last year.

And last year, we were terrible.

Let's not get hung up on names and remember that the goal is improve from year to year. Unfortunately, that's not easy, especially when you don't have Magic Johnson Guggenheim Time Warner Cable money to blow on expensive booze and unnecessary shiny things that break after a year of regular use-- like a Jaguar with 80,000 miles on it.

Free Agents aren't abundant this year, and the good ones (including Lincecum) will receive the dreaded "qualifying offer". Teams like the Giants are able to offer its FAs a Q.O., which is an average of the 125 top salaries in baseball-- almost like the NFL's "Franchise Tag". This season it works out to around $14MM.

If a team thinks it'll lose an FA and is okay with the possibility of that player accepting the 1 year, $14MM deal, then the team that signs said player will forfeit their 1st round pick (unless they have a top 10 pick), in which case they forfeit their 2nd rounder. The team that lost the FA then receives a "sandwich pick" in between rounds 1 and 2.

This may work to the Giants' advantage if they lose Lincecum to another team after offering him the QA. However, by the Giants stupidly winning games at the end of the season (I blame management), they are slated to have the 14th pick in the draft, which is unprotected.


If the Giants sign someone like, let's say, Bronson Arroyo, who always kills us and would put up great numbers in a big ballpark like AT&T, the Giants will lose their 1st rounder to Cin
cinnati (assuming the Reds have offered Bronson the Q.O.

Arroyo would also fit in perfectly, as we have one departing guitar player in Zito. Plugging in another guitar player ensures that the McCovey Cove Starship won't miss a beat.


------Side rant-------

In case you're wondering, the Giants (SO STUPIDLY) won 2-3 games more than they should've. Had they benched their starters and tanked, they'd have had a protected top 10 pick.

I will never in my life understand the benefit of winning any games in a lost season like 2013, especially when this scenario was at stake. They needed to take a page from other sports like the Indianapolis Colts in their "Suck For Luck" year.

I never want to see my team lose, but winning those extra 3-5 games that they did at the end of the season only hurt their situation this offseason and weakened their hand.

------End of rant-------

Notable Free Agents starting pitchers include:

Roy Halladay (37), Josh Johnson (30), Matt Garza (30), Ervin Santana (31), Ricky Nolasco (31), Chien-Ming Wang (34), Bronson Arroyo (37), Paul Maholm (32), AJ Burnett (37), Hiroki Kuroda (39)...

There are others, but they aren't worth really mentioning on this list.

Check out MLBTR 2014 FAs here.

As you can see, the list isn't extensive, and Lincecum will likely benefit from this. However, if the Giants are able to re-sign Timmy for a reasonable rate, plug an effective Yusmeiro Petit in as a 5th starter, and add someone like Bronson Arroyo, we'd be talking about a pretty solid rotation. Not amazing, but goddamned solid.

Josh Johnson also intrigues me, but the guy is a walking injury report, and his 2013 campaign in Toronto was horrendous in the starts that he did make. He had bone spurs removed from his forearm a week ago, and may be a good buy low opportunity for someone with a decent contingency plan (like Chad Gaudin or Ryan Vogelsong).

There are more questions than answers at this point in regard to the pitching staff, and it's going to take money to fix. Heath Hembree will likely be a part of the bullpen, and that will help, but we can't depend on the Eric Surkamps and Mike Kickhams of the world to step into the rotation anytime soon.

There's a gap in the starting pitching pipeline right now, and the best talent not named Cain or Bumgarner the Giants have right now isn't in the form of Major League ready starting pitching. They have 3 guys-- Kyle Crick, Clayton Blackburn, and Chris Stratton-- that all project to be good big leaguers, but they're just not quite ready. All have yet to pitch above High A San Jose, and are a year or two away.

When they are ready to pair with Cain and Bumgarner though, we're looking at a talented group. Until then we're in full-blown hole-filling mode.

As I said... more questions than answers this offseason.

Giants simply must play better or else

As I write this, the Giants sit within striking distance of the NL West at 5.5 GB. They're still 7 games under .500, and they still aren't hitting on all cylinders, but they're alive.

With Timmy's no-hitter heading into the break and grabbing 2 of 3 to open the "so-called second half" (as Dave Flemming would put it) against Arizona, things appear to be trending in an upward fashion.

Clearly, they have their work cut out for them, with a capable Arizona team and the hyper-streaking Doyers sitting ahead of them in the standings.

Affeldt is now on the DL, resulting in more Jean Machi appearances, and the starting lineup is still mired in mediocrity, but I refuse to believe that Pablo, Pence, and Crawford will continue to hit at well below average clips.

As those three guys go, the Giants too will go.

It's clear that LF is still an issue, with 2B-turned OF Kensuke Tanaka not an overall upgrade over Andres Torres, and Francoeur still an unknown quantity. Personally, I'd like to see if a full-time Frenchy can get it going. At least he's got a cannon in LF, if nothing else.

The pitching staff is inconsistent, but is performing better than the beginning of the season.

The problem is this team has to play better with what they have before Brian Sabean can justify making any significant moves to upgrade this roster. Obviously, it's easier said than done in both respects, but it's crystal clear that this currently isn't a team that can make a run at this division without an immediate improvement from within.

Unfortunately, the whole lightning in a bottle thing that won two titles has yet to be captured, and there is no quick fix available. The theory that the Giants sold their soul to win in '10 and '12 certainly looks like there's a little merit to it as game after game, they're unable to put it all together.

As I mentioned in previous posts, this team needs an immediate infusion of pitching of some kind, and there's nothing available internally that will solve this issue right now.

As we speak, there are only 5 guys on the Fresno Grizzlies roster that have an ERA under 3. And of those 5, Jake Dunning, Sandy Rosario, and Jean Machi are already on the big league roster, and the other two guys have a combined 3 appearances. Heath Hembree if you're wondering, has 21 saves, but has an ERA hovering around 4.50. Obviously, AAA has been cashed out, and there aren't really any standouts in AA either.

Unfortunately for the Giants, the minors have little in the way of ML ready talent, and that puts the front office in a bit of a quandary.

Do they deal some A Ball level pitching prospects to get better now, in a season that is not guaranteed by any stretch? I would lean toward no.

The opportunity to add arms by taking on money for a middling prospect is likely the route that Sabean will have to go, unless the asking price for guys like Bud Norris come down.

With Zito (team option), Lincecum, Vogelsong (team option), and Chad "Gurney" Gaudin all set to hit the free agent market at the end of this season, it would behoove the Giants to make a meaningful move to secure controllable pitching that could help anchor the rotation beyond 2013.

A name that has recently surfaced as a possibility, is Kansas City's Ervin Santana (formerly of the Angels). Due to be a free agent, Santana is 6-6 with a 3.18 ERA. He should probably be available, although the Royals are apparently not ready to give up on the season yet. He's due somewhere around $5.5MM for the rest of the season.

The truth of the matter is that there isn't a ton out there in the ways of starting pitching, and the guys that are there are either really expensive prospect-wise like Jake Peavy, or really in demand.

The little wrinkle in this is that Ryan Vogelsong is supposed to be ready to go in 2-3 weeks. We can't forget how awful he was before he went down, but he's certainly capable of helping this team if he's back on track. This simple addition from within could really change the entire landscape of the pitching staff-- enabling either Vogey, Gaudin, or possibly the struggling Zito to become a reliever and bumping Machi down to Fresno.

As it stands, we can't count on that and the best solution may be to add a reliever.With the non-waiver trade deadline in less than two weeks, I fully expect that to happenr. A lefty would be optimal, but a righty like John Axford from Milwaukee would certainly fit the bill.

I know, I know, but he's only given up one earned run since May 15th.

Also, I would be remiss if I didn't mention Brian Wilson again, who is reportedly on track to showcase himself to teams in the next few weeks. The Giants have been reported as being interested in kicking his crazy tires once again.

It sounds like a broken record-- and it really is-- but the Giants are going to have play better with what they have rather than expecting some kind of miracle acquisition from the outside.

Are they capable of improvement? Of course, but we just haven't seen it, and they're running out of time.

Making sense of these Giants and the trade deadline

It's safe to say this second time around, that repeating as World Series Champions is easier said than done. Sure we basically brought back the exact same team, but if they don't perform at the same level, you're going to get a completely different result. That's what we're dealing with now.

The Giants have been struck by the Injury Bug, something that we haven't had to deal with much in the last couple years. We've been lucky.

We've also been struck by the Bad Pitching Demon and the Unable to Get Timely Hits Fairy. All of those things considered, the Giants are in this, and they can win this division again. There's just no question about it.

The NL West isn't weak-- no that wouldn't be the right word. It is suffering from a bizarre case of NFL-like parity brought on by severe under and overachieving by all 5 teams. The Giants/Snakes/Bastards are all underachieving, while the Rockpile and Madres are playing out of their gourds. Arizona seems to be the weirdest case of all. I mean, how do you underachieve in first place? Well they are-- led by underachieving pitching. That seems to be the common thread.

If you all thought the NL West would look like this around the all-star break, raise your hands. Stop lying. Put your arm down. Jerks...

It certainly is a strange scene.

But hey! The bright side is that the Giants are literally 3 games out of first place. It doesn't make sense I know. I've seen all the terrible baseball that you've seen, and yet, here we are, within one series of reclaiming our rightful position atop the NL West.

Sometimes, rather than stewing over losses, losing streaks, and Jeremy Affeldt appearances, we need to just take a deep breath of air, take a deep gulp of beer, and look at the goddamn standings for a while.

There are a lot of things that this team hasn't done very well this season, but there's still another half of baseball to be played, and moves to be made.

Dissecting Giant Needs via Trade

Do you listen to Marty Lurie on the weekends? You need to if you don't. He's like a kind, patient Grandfather/Psychotherapist for all of Giantsland. He lets everyone and anyone call up and say stupid things, and then he nicely tells them they're crazy and that they need to stop fantasizing about video game trades or talks them off ledges. My favorite part of his shows-- which simultaneously drives me nuts-- is when people say stuff like, "Let's trade Sandoval and Lincecum for Verlander" and absurd things like that. It makes me laugh. Anyway, let's identify our greatest needs here:

#1  STARTING PITCHER

This has to be our number one priority. I know Vogey is coming back soon, but he was absolutely awful this year, and he cannot be trusted. Lincecum is also unreliable and would be best served moving into a long relief role or late inning strikeout specialist. He did it last year in the playoffs and was very successful. Let's see if he can do it again. Also, adding a starter would give the Giants flexibility in the event that Vogey comes back in as badly as he went out.

Obviously this team has had trouble hitting sometimes, but starting pitching has been everything from bad, to atrocious this year, and you know it.

Assuming we add someone, the rotation (with Vogey back obviously) is Cain, Bum, New Guy, Zeets, Vogey, with Gaudin and Timmy in the pen. If Vogey sucks, they can move him to the pen, make up an injury, or figure something out, then bring back either Gaudin or Lincecum back from the pen. It makes sense to me.

The best part about adding a starter is that it immediately strengthens the bullpen.

Who to get? There are plenty of guys out there that have been spoken about: Ricky Nolasco, Bud Norris, Yovani Gallardo, etc.

You have to look at the future when making trades for the present, so which makes the most sense? Nolasco is an impending free agent, so to me, I don't want the risk. Gallardo really doesn't have great numbers this year and has struggled to be the beast that we've all seen him be. He's also the biggest name out there (aside from Cliff Lee, whom I won't bother discussing because it's not realistic) and Gallardo will have about $2.6MM remaining in 2013 salary at the July trade deadline, and then is owed $11.25MM in 2014 and has a $13MM club option with a $600K buyout for 2015.

To me, if we were to go after a Brewers pitcher, it should be Kyle Lohse, so is signed through 2015 with $7MM deferred until 2016-18). He has a lower ERA than Gallardo, and is from Chico. It's not a bad contract, and Lohse would benefit from playing in a pitcher's park for once in his life. That being said, he's getting a little long in the tooth (34) and the Brewers may prefer to keep him due to his decent contract. Another plus, is that he wouldn't take the type of prospects that a younger, sexier pitcher like Gallardo would.

Speaking of local guys (you knew it was coming), I want the Giants to get Bud Norris. Full disclosure is that I know him, and yeah, that makes me biased, but there's a good case to be made for the Budman.

He's 28, grew up a Giants fan in Novato, and has already admitted to the media that playing at home for the Giants would "be a dream come true".

Not only is he a good guy, but he's a hard worker, and all he wants to do is win. Oh yeah, and  he's currently sporting a 3.35 ERA, lowest among any of the guys I've mentioned above.

In fact, if you threw out two bad outings against Oakland and Detroit, his ERA would be 2.33.

Obviously I have closely followed his career, and it's pretty clear to me that he's learned how to be a pitcher in his fourth full season in the bigs. He's cut down his walk rate, his HR rate, and has stayed away from the big inning more often-- something that killed a lot of decent starts in the past. Interestingly enough, his strikeout rate is way down this year-- something I consider to be a good thing, because he's been able to pitch more to contact, and gotten more outs that way, rather than trying to get hitters to chase his plus-slider or trying to blow a fastball by them.

Biased or not, it's clear to me that Norris is the best move for the Giants. He's in his prime, he's affordable (made $3MM this yr) and is arbitration eligible next year. If the Giants want to keep him then, I think they have a better chance to do that than with someone like Nolasco.

As I watch Mike Kickham get kicked around in Cincinnati right now, I can't stress enough that this move needs to be made immediately.


#2 CORNER OUTFIELDER

With Pagan out, we just have to assume we're going to go forward with Blanco manning CF for the most part, and that's fine, because he's as good a CF as there is in baseball. Unfortunately, this new found thinness in the OF has exposed a weak LF that had been covered up by makeup and Botox until Pagan's injury.

Jeff Francoeur is out there floating around, and I wouldn't mind him as a 4th OF, but as a starter, he's not the answer. He was hitting .208 in KC, and they just cut him loose. I would welcome him as a short-term addition as he's a great clubhouse guy with a great nickname and a great arm. I hear about "scrunched faces" in regard to his OF play, but despite a poor 2012 in the OF, he's basically rated as average this season based on regular fielding stats and some of the crazy advanced ones.

The guy the Giants need to get is Alex Rios, and it sounds like they're looking to do that-- as they've sent scouts to watch him the last couple weeks. He's owed some money (about $5.5MM the rest of this year, $12.5MM next year and $13.5MM in '15 with a $1MM buyout). So basically, the Giants can give up a little less if they're willing to pay a little more-- something that surprisingly they've said they're willing to do. In the end, it would be a $19MM gamble for a guy that's actually playing pretty well.

The only issue is that he's played a total of 1 game in his professional career in LF. But, considering he was a full time CF in '10 and '11 with the White Sox, he can handle LF just fine. For Christ's sake, the Giants played Aubrey Huff and Pat Burrell there over the years. Alex Rios wouldn't be an issue-- especially with Blanco's amazing range playing next to him and Brandon Crawford playing in front of him.

In 6 career games in San Francisco, he has a .937 OPS.

Aside from Rios, there aren't a ton of OFs that jump out as being available and affordable to the Giants (ie. money not prospects), so this may drive up the price.

#3 RELIEF PITCHER

It may seem like we need a reliever badly, but if we take care of problem #1 and add an SP, we gain an automatic bullpen arm. Plus, there's the matter of Santiago Casilla returning soon. Casilla is more important to this team than anyone could have imagined, and with this knee cyst problem taken care of, maybe he'll be better than ever. These two "inside additions" could be enough to nurse the pen back to health-- that is if Affeldt and Romo settle down and stop scaring us.

Relievers are the easiest positions to add, because there are tons of dudes out there. They're also key positions, as we've learned from previous stretch runs.

There are 4 current or former closers that jump out as possibly being available: Glen Perkins (MIN), Bobby Parnell (NYM), Francisco Rodriguez (MIL), and John Axford (MIL).

While most of us want nothing to do with the artist formerly known as K-Rod and the Ax-Man, Axford has experienced a bit a of re-birth as of late as a middle reliever and totally hasn't sucked. Neither has K-Rod.

K-Rod has 6 saves in 17 innings with a 1.02 ERA and Axford has only allowed 5 ER in his last 23.2 IP. I know neither inspires confidence, but they're more affordable than these next two guys.

Perkins and Parnell are the two current closers that a lot of teams would love to have. Both are having good seasons, and both extremely affordable. Perkins just signed an extension with Minny last year, so I'd be surprised if he was traded, despite their lameness on the field. He's only due $7.5MM total over the next two years and has a friendly club option for 2016. Parnell on the other hand is under team control through 2015 season, as he just entered his first year of arby this season. Unfortunately, that makes Parnell a hot commodity and the Mets, who've said they intent to keep him, would have to be bowled over with an offer. Similar language surrounds the affordable Perkins, who the Twins would be better off keeping, unless they received a sweet deal.

That leaves guys like Steve Cishek (MIA), Matt Lindstrom (CHW), Jose Veras (HOU), or Jose Valverde (FA).

Oh yeah, there's also some guy out there named Brian Wilson who no one has seen hind nor hair of in months. I know he kinda burned his bridges here and he's a big distraction, but this is the time of year when he said he'd be ready. Just an intriguing thought.

Final Thoughts

This season is clearly not a wash, a lost cause, or anything else. This team is only 3 games out despite its obvious flaws and inconsistent play. But we're lucky enough to play in a weird division that's there for the taking. It's time for Sabes to make a couple of moves, and I believe I've outlined them above. Trade for Rios and eat his money, stick him in LF, then trade for Bud Norris. This allows two of the Gaudin/Lincecum/Vogelsong trio to strengthen the bullpen along with Santiago Casilla, and everyone lives happily ever after. Deal?

Deal.

Vogelsong is scaring people

Welp. Ryan Vogelsong still isn't right.

It was another one of those starts on Thursday against Atlanta. You know, the one where he seems kinda okay through a few innings and then Bochy leaves him in 3 hitters too long and by that time he's given up 5 or 6 runs, and then he gets chainsaw angry, but it's too late, and we can't come back that one night?

*Big inhale after run-on sentence*

Yeah, it was another one of those starts for Vogey, who is beginning to scare people.

Forget Cain scaring people, and Lincecum doesn't surprise anyone anymore with whatever he does that day. Vogey is a huge part of this rotation, and it's hard to say whether he'll be able to recover.

I don't know whether to blame this on arm fatigue, pitching too many innings in the World Baseball Classic instead of easing into Spring Training, or whether he's just 35 years old and is having trouble locating his pitches. What I know, is that he's floating meatballs up there, and the carnivores in the batter's box are having their way with him.

He's now given up 9 dingers, has the worst ERA of all starting pitchers, and Hank Schulman offered another ugly stat as well:

"For the season, opponents are hitting .500 against him without a single strikeout in the fifth. He has allowed 16 of his 36 runs in that inning."

Sometimes players just get off to slow starts, and it happens to the best of them sometimes. However, Vogey's troubles at the end of last season were forgotten after he managed to get himself together for a nearly perfect postseason. Sad to say, but it's been a downward trend.

We can discount this as a slow start, or we can say, "Hey, something's not right here."

Something is certainly not right, and if I were to guess, it would be some sort of arm trouble-- perhaps arm fatigue due to age and miles, or perhaps something more sinister and latent like an injury of some sort. But that's just speculation by an idiot blogger.

Vogey is the type of competitor that would rather die than admit that something is wrong, and we all know he'll fight to the end, like the dogged gladiator he is. His story of perseverance is part of the reason he's so endeared himself to the Giants faithful.

Don't look at this table if you don't want to puke/cry. (Click to enlarge)

But alas, we're in this to win games and win championships, and despite the fact Lincecum and Cain have been inconsistent thus far, Vogelsong remains the number one concern of the rotation. His 70 baserunners in 39.1 innings and only 1 quality start out of 7 outings stick out like two sore thumbs. It's also scary that opponents are hitting nearly .370 on balls hit in play.

That .370 number is so high, that it suggests some degree of bad luck at play, but when you actually watch the hits being allowed, most are no doubters. It's very disheartening.

Should he have a start skipped? Probably.

But if we know Bruce Bochy (and we do), he's going to give his veterans enough rope to hang themselves (Lincecum anyone?), with enough left over to take the remaining rope and wrap it around their entire bodies so they can keep warm.

We'll see how it all shakes out, but with few (if any) rotational options in Fresno or in the bullpen, Vogelsong will need to dig himself out of this hole as soon as possible and begin to locate his pitches. If he can't, more drastic moves may need to be taken, and none of us want it to come to that.

Get well soon, Vogelstrong.

Giants dying to put it together

It's pretty clear to this guy that the 2013 Giants are another crazy squad full of comebacks and torture. There's just something in the water over at the Cove that makes this team simultaneously maddening and magical.

We're still in April, so that's why no one should be freaking out. We've seen this team go through pretty bad stretches of baseball en route to World Series Championships, and this is certainly close to being one of them.

Is it a frustrating stretch? Oh yeah. Blowing leads, coming back, and blowing them again really grinds everyones' gears. WTF is up with the bullpen? The Giants could and should be another 4 or 5 games up in the win column by my count, but you just have to remember that they have another 5 months to make the playoffs and get their shit together.

What I've learned after years of baseball is that you want your team to peak at the right time, because it means everything. I look at a team like the Atlanta Braves right now, who look pretty good... but it's April 29th, and we've won two championships peaking in late October. That's what it's about.


Cainer and Vogey. What's up?

Bafflingly bad performances by guys like Cain and Vogelsong are starting to concern a lot of people. I don't think it's time to freak out on Cain... I'm resisting the urge.

He's got an ERA damn near 7.00, but a truly respectable WHIP at 1.26, he's striking out guys at a higher rate than ever, and he's got the lowest BB/9 rate going of his career in the early going. So what's the problem?

Well, you know already... it's the longball.

Cain has already given up 6 HR this season (Vogelsong 7), and you've gotta hope that this trend slows down, or it's going to be a tough season.

While Vogelsong looks like he's in deeper mechanical trouble than Cain, he only gave up 17 roundtrippers in 2012, while Cain gave up 21. Disturbing about that 21 is that it was an increase of 12 (!!!) over 2011 when Cain only allowed 9 longballs.

Cain's fastball velocity isn't down, and the only real variance between '13 and '12 is that he's relying on his fastball a little bit more than his change and curve. 

The big numbers that jump out at you are Cain's HR/flyball ratio, which is double the 2012 value at 16.2%. It's a scary number, but it's probably something that he can correct as the season moves along. His velocity and overall pitching approach haven't changed, he's just thrown some lousy pitches up there that have gotten crushed. Correct that somehow, and he's back to the good Cain. Easier said that done.

Vogey on the other hand, is a bit more concerning. He'll look great for stretches of games, and then he just gets bombed a couple times. Unlike Cain, Vogey has seen an average drop of about one mile/hr on his fastball and slider.

His K/9 BB/9 and K/BB ratios are all in line with his career averages, but just like Cainer, that HR/Flyball ratio is absolutely brutal at 19.4% (+11% over '12).

Gentlemen? Keep the ball down.


Crawdaddy the All-Star?    

It could happen.

Remember the crazy all-star balloting last year when Giants fans went nuts (within the rules!) and nearly voted in the entire starting lineup? Well as I recall, Brandon Crawford came in 2nd or 3rd in the balloting. Obviously nuts, and anyone that considers themselves a true baseball fan shouldn't have voted for him once last season. He should've gotten 2 votes: one from his mother, and one from his wife. His own dad probably wouldn't have voted for him.

This year however, he's absolutely tearing it up. 

Along with gold glove caliber defense, we're getting an unreal slash line of .291/.361/.547 (OPS .907). Just so you can see how awesome that is, let me show you some other guys' OPS numbers:

Miguel Cabrera      .992
Paul Goldschmidt   .922 
Brandon Crawford .907 
Matt Kemp            .668 (ahahahhahahahahah)

So look, he's not just off to a good start, he's off to an amazing start. For a guy we begged to hit better than his weight for an average (.215+), he's showing us all that he is capable of great things.

Will he continue this tear? Unlikely. But he is clearly developing the elusive power stroke that we've seen random flashes of. He's maturing and becoming more disciplined. He's walking more, swinging at balls outside the strike zone less, and when he does swing at strikes, he's crushing them.

He has basically been the 2nd/3rd best NL shortstop thus far (behind Tulowitzki and Jean Segura... matter of opinion), and if he keeps this up, our crazy fan voters won't be wrong if he wins.


Marco! Marco??? Hey, why isn't he saying Scutaro??? 

Some people just get off to lousy starts, and I'm inclined to believe that this is the case with ol' Scoots. He's too good a hitter to scrap for that much longer.

You had to know you weren't getting the .362 hitter we saw last year after the trade. You tell yourself that and try not to get excited, but hey, we expected .300 or something, right?

There's rumblings that his back is bothering him, but we haven't really gotten a good answer. He's been a little dinged up since Spring, but we were led to believe he's healthy.

Whether he's in a funk or he's hurt, it's time for him to A) Get days off and let Nick Noonan play or B) Switch with Brandon Crawford in the order, so we can have a productive bat hitting in the no. 2 hole. This whole hitting .215 thing isn't going to fly.    
   

Coaching staff the real MVPs

Forget your Poseys, Pandas, and Scutaros for a second.

I know it's hard, but just try not to think of individual performances for a second and transport yourself back to the beginning of the season.

Think about what you wanted this team's goals to be-- both for each player and collectively.

All we wanted was Pagan and Cabrera (sorry) to be better than 4th outfielders. We wanted Brandon Crawford to play good defense, and if he hit his weight, we'd be thrilled.

We wanted Brandon Belt to get playing time and to learn how to hit with any kind of consistency. We fought amongst each other all season as to whether he should be sent down-- whether he had the mental makeup to deal with his situation.

We didn't think Hector Sanchez was ready to catch a big league pitching staff coming out of Spring Training. He was too raw, we were told. Joaquin Arias was a random infielder who we knew very little about. He impressed in Spring, and with the injury to Freddy Sanchez, he made the team and never looked back. He made the final play of Matt Cain's perfect game and has racked up clutch hits.

With Brian Wilson shelved very early on, Santiago Casilla stepped up until the all-star break, closing out games with authority. Now that's Sergio Romo's job-- something he's never done before.

We PRAYED that Buster Posey would be able to play 100 games and thought 15 HR and 70 RBI with a .280 avg. would've been a great comeback story. We all know how that turned out.

Look at our starting pitchers. We expected ZERO from Barry Zito. Many of us, including me, just said eat the guy's contract and get someone-- ANYONE in here other than him to be the 5th starter.

When it became apparent that there was something dreadfully wrong with Tim Lincecum, the staff never gave up on him or his season. They continued to cart him out there, always treating him with the respect and waaayyyyy-tooooo-long rope earned by being a two-time Cy Young winner.

They worked with him, watched tape, talked to his dad-- anything that would get their ace back to some semblance of respectability. He seems to have found that respectability as a reliever of all things.

Vogelsong and Bumgarner had incredible first halves, but tailed off badly after the all-star break.

Now look at them. Shutdown baseball in the playoffs-- seemingly out of nowhere.

Pablo Sandoval, still not up to required fitness standards, struggled at times this season-- frustrating all involved. Instead of rehabbing his hamate bone, he was out until all hours in a Santa Cruz resort getting into trouble. He fell in and out of his old ways at the plate; impressing sometimes, maddening us in others.

Now look at him.


We don't see what goes on behind the scenes or on the practice field, but it's clear that this coaching staff constantly spins thread into gold on their baseball loom. It's unbelievable.

Remember when we led the league in errors in the early season? Remember that game in Houston when we had all absolutely HAD it with Crawford and his errors? Seems like a long time ago.

Now? His coaches and his hard work have molded him into a Gold Glove candidate who hit .248-- higher than the .235 we were praying for.

He hit .204 last year.

So much tangible improvement by so many players during the season didn't happen by accident. So many in-game moves and questionable lineup moves by Bochy have turned to gold seemingly every time.

When we all scorned George Kontos for constantly allowing his inherited runners to score, and demanded to know why Bochy continued to cart him out there during similar situations, we got our answer when he came into huge situations in the NLDS, and up until his last two outings, has shut it down.

Gardy the bullpen guru.

The entire coaching staff has left an indelible mark on this 2012 season, something that I can only compare to 2010's magic or perhaps even the turnaround by the 49ers from 2010 to 2011.

Mark Gardner in the bullpen has overcome the loss of our closer and the entrance of new players like Jose Mijares and the aforementioned Kontos. He got Casilla back on track after he'd seemingly lost everything in July. He has managed to keep this bullpen together when it seemingly was running out of steam during the dog days.

Dave Righetti is a magician. Overseeing the entire pitching staff while it regressed and befuddled all, Rags managed to keep it between the lines. Look at the job he's done with Barry Zito! Absolutely incredible.

Rags, the miracle worker.

Look what he's done with Vogelsong and Bumgarner for God's sake! Vogey is our #1 and Bumgarner just threw 7 scoreless in the World Series after being left for dead. He turned a guy struggling to keep his 2012 postseason ERA under 15.00 into a World Series hero in a matter of a week.

As for Bochy? What more can I say. He's just unbelievable.

I've likened him to a big oil tanker at sea. It takes him forever to get moving, and even longer to change course. Sometimes that's a good thing though.

If he made every little knee-jerk decision we demanded of him on Twitter, Crawford, Belt, and Kontos would probably be in AAA, and God knows what would be happening with Lincecum and Zito.

I know I'm gushing like a schoolgirl here, but this staff needed this kind of recognition. Ron Wotus, Tim Flannery, and Shawon Dunston invisibly tutoring the infielders, Will Clark handing out pointers during BP, Billy Hayes down there in the bullpen teaching Hector Sanchez how to catch Tim Lincecum-- it just goes on and on...

Bam Bam and Belty.

Bam Bam Meulens? Another miracle worker.

We couldn't hit last year worth a damn, and newly acquired players like Pagan, Scutaro, Pence, and a healthy Posey have definitely helped that tremendously. BUT, one cannot discount the work put in with young guys like Crawford and Belt-- seemingly lost at the plate. You have Pagan beasting around since early August and Posey contending for the MVP while we annihilate the Cardinals and Tigers in back to back games.

Kudos Bam Bam. Seriously.

I know I've rambled here. I can't help it. Every time I thought of one example of great coaching, another jumped out at me. If the Giants do indeed win two more games this season and manage to accomplish this crazy feat of winning it all twice in three years, it will be due in great part to the magnificence of this group of men assembled as the Giants' coaching staff.