More questions than answers

How quickly a week changes things, huh?

This is just a perfect example of why you just can't react to every little thing during your team's 162 game season. Where were we last Thursday? We were five losses lighter, that's where we were.


Look, it's just a matter of peaks and valleys, and this team doesn't appear to be one of those smooth sailers. I mentioned in my last post on Monday, that it was gut-check time, and that this Padres series would be a solid indication of where this team really is.

With the smooth sailing of the few series in the review mirror, it was time for the Gyros to step up-- on the road, without Rowand and a healthy DeRosa, and after a devastating loss to their arch rivals. A couple guys showed up in the San Diego series, namely Cain, Sanchez, and to a lesser extent, Uribe, but it just wasn't enough. This of course is saying something, because the Giants were swept by a final score of 9-4. No, that wasn't the final score of Wednesday's game, those were all the runs scored the entire series.

I believe this 2010 team to be different from last year's model, because up until this grisly San Diago disaster, I saw a vastly improved team. Hell, even in the Eckstein game, Juan Uribe donged one off of one of the best closers in the game in Heath Bell to tie up the game. That was huge, and it just wasn't something we saw last year.

Let's talk Wellemeyer for a minute.

Todd Wellemeyer is not the good version from two seasons ago. This is a "Spring Training Superstar" who's lost his marbles and his command. This quote from Baggarly via Twitter doesn't make me feel good:

"I didn't think Todd Wellemeyer could punt his rotation spot on the basis of three starts. This first inning is making me think otherwise."

You know when a non-knee jerk baseball authority is freaked out, it's time to really freak the eff out.

You don't need to see any stats to know that the dude is off his rocker, and is walking waaaaay too many dudes. But hey, people like stats, so let's look at how gross they really are. The guy is averaging almost 7 walks per 9 innings, an obscene 8.16 ERA, and a a WHIP just below 2. It's just fugly...

It's not like the guy is just giving up Texas Leaguers, seeing-eye grounders and running into bad luck. He's allowing more baserunners than should be legal, and is paying dearly for it.

Let's assume worst case scenario here for a minute, and that the guy needs to be replaced. There are a few options: Kevin Pucetas (AAA), Joe Martinez (AAA), Pedro Martinez (Free Agent), Jarrod Washburn (Free Agent).

None of them are particularly attractive to me, but hey, we're talking 5th starter here. We need a guy who won't pitch us out of ballgames. While the Pedro/Washburn route is certainly intriguing, it's unlikely. Pucetas is likely the guy, since he did indeed have solid spring.

However, Pucetas has given up 17 hits and 8 walks in 16 innings (3.94 ERA) so far in Fresno, which is certainly not something that makes me feel a whole lot better. After all, T-Dub's problem is baserunners, and that's the last thing we need while the offense struggles.

Joe Martinez, on the other hand is 1-0 with a 0.90 ERA in 10 innings thus far.

To be mentioned also is that there's some dude named Eric Hacker in AAA that is absolutely beasting around. Truth be told, I've never heard of the guy before, but he's 3-0 with a 1.10 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and 16 K in only 16.1 innings. So for what it's worth, we've got this 27 year-old unknown down there mowing down the PCL.

Whatever the decision is, it probably needs to be made quickly, because we've got the Cards, Phils, and the damned dirty Rockies coming into town beginning on Friday.

Other random thoughts:

-- Is it possible that the Padres are a better team than they appear to be?

-- I bet the Gyros don't get swept by the Madres if Zito plunked a Dodger, resulting in a bench clearing confrontation

-- Velez is not a good outfielder

-- If Bruce Bochy refuses to play Bowker every day, how will we ever know if the guy can play every day? How do we know he really can't hit lefties? He's only gotten 3 ABs against them this year. Yes, he's gone 0-3 in those AB's, but it's like come on dude. If he was like 0-20, against lefties, then I'd say, "Okay, I understand."

This is the same confidence-shattering crap that we see time and time again from this organization. Stick his ass out there, and let him effing play. If he sucks after 150 ABs, then fine, do something else. God, I'm so sick of this.

-- My buddy proposed a hypothetical trade today. Assuming Madison Bumgarner stops sucking so bad and regains trade value... would you trade him for Carl Crawford, assuming we could sign Crawf longterm? He's eligible to be a free agent next season. Food for thought. That would be a lottaaaaa triples.

-- If you're like, "We'll sign a big bat this coming offseason." Let me tell you now, that you're dreaming. Here's the list of 2011 free agents. There's Carl Crawford and a whole lotta nothing.

Anything we get to improve this offense in the long term will have to come via trade, at a steep price. This is why there is such a high premium on great young hitters.

-- I hate the Dodgers all over again...

-- Is it possible that we suck on the road? Yeah we swept a terrible Houston team in Texas, but, yeah... we haven't done well since then outside SF...

-- If you're not on Twitter, I think you should, especially if you like venting frustrations during games. It's almost like a Giants chat room at times. I like to talk Giants a lot, so obviously it works for me.

-- Here's a great example of Twitter can be cool. I had this "conversation" with Nick Mangold, starting center for the New York Jets:

The Dodgerhater: PETA freaks protesting outside the KFC in San Rafael. This may be a perfect time to try that new Double Down. Haha! @NickMangold is down.

Nick Mangold: @TheDodgerhater where do I sign up?

The Dodgerhater: We could organize an eat in. Gotta check to see where the PETA jerks are going, then march an army of dudes into the KFC.

Nick Mangold: I like it dude

Shut up! How many starting NFL players did you talk about KFC and PETA with on Twitter? Hmm? Oh zero, that's what I thought!

-- Go Giants, Go Sharks.

Wellemeyer has a legit shot at the #5 spot?

Before I get to Wellemeyer, check this out. It's The Dodgerhater's second appearance on HotStove.com commenting on Giants issues. This time about Aaron Rowand leading off. See my answer, as well as El Lefty Malo's and others right here.

The Giants have signed former Cardinal non-great Todd Wellemeyer to a minor league deal, similar to the one Juan Uribe signed last year. It would guarantee him a cool mil if he makes the team, but after Obama's tax increases, his salary should net him like $20k. Ha. Sorry. Sometimes I can't resist.

What's interesting about Wellemeyer is that he has been a swingman throughout his career and has had a little success both in the pen and as a starter. With the #5 spot now a tossup between Madison Bumgarner, Kevin Pucetas, Joe Martinez, and Wellemeyer, it'll all come down to whether The Carolina Kid is ready to do this thing on the big stage.

Despite the good things he saw from MBG last year in limited action, part of me thinks that if he's thrust into the #5 spot from the get go and struggles, that it could be a real confidence killer. The last thing we need is a talented sadsack. Those are the most frustrating.

It may be best for Bumgarner to start off in Fresno, get his confidence rolling, then promote him in May or June, so that he's in the groove, but doesn't have a tired arm like he did when he was promoted last September.

A look at Wellemeyer's career numbers gives us something concrete to work with. Last year he sucked, and upon further review, he sucked in the following seasons as well: 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2009. Keep in mind, he's only pitched in parts of seven big league seasons, and his rough going early on was simply due to inexperience.

So, how do we figure this guy out? His 5.89 ERA in '09 was hideous, but his 4.14, 4.54, and 3.71 ERA's in '06, '07, and '08 are at least palatable. Let's take a look at him when he's at his best.

Wellemeyer is one season removed from his best as a pro. Interestingly, it game when he was exclusively used as a starter (a pattern in his career). In 32 starts, he sported some truly respectable stuff: 1.25 WHIP, a nearly 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio, and stranded 77% of runners on base.

He's a three pitch guy, (fastball, slider, change), of which his best is an 85 mph slider that he threw for 26% of the time in '08. Last year, in which he blew big time, he only threw it 17% of the time. This would indicate that he either lost confidence in it, or simply couldn't command it worth a damn. Confidence is a bitch.

It's really hard to say what exactly happened to T-Dub last year. He did deal with an elbow injury where he missed 25 days on the DL, but his strike percentage was nearly identical to '08, and his velocity was only down about 1 mph overall.

This just looks like a common case of lost command and a little bad luck.

In '08, his BB/9 rate was an excellent 2.91/9 innings. In '09, this rate ballooned to nearly 5 per 9. This, coupled with a rise in BABIP up from a below average .273 in '08 to a high .346, shows me that the man was just getting the ball up in the zone, and he was losing batters to walks that in '08 he was able to get out.

It could've been injury, confidence, fatigue, whatever...

I will end the most epic post about a minor league signee/potential 5th starter ever with this:

If we get the '08 Todd Wellemeyer who went 13-9 with a 3.71 ERA, Sabean has unearthed another gem off the scrap heap, a la Juan Uribe, Brandon Medders, Justin Miller, etc.

If not, it's another minimum risk/high reward signing. A pattern this offseason.

Now, we eagerly await the outcome of Timmy's arby case in Tampa...
----------------------------------------------------------------


Also, a melancholy happy trails to one of my favorite TV personalities of all time, Captain Phil Harris of The Cornelia Marie and of Deadliest Catch fame. It is not often that a total stranger's passing makes you feel this crappy. Allow me to say a few words.

Phil was a man's man. A brash, chain-smoking, tattooed outlaw of the seas. A father, a husband, a skipper.

A guy you'd work hard for, even if it meant staying up for 36 hours hauling crab pots during 20 degree weather in 30 foot seas.

People like us only knew Phil for a few years on television, but those of us who watch Deadliest Catch religiously, felt like we knew him well.

I speak for myself when I say, I'll miss you skipper.

Smoke a Camel Filter, pound a redbull, and slay those crab up in heaven. We'll miss you buddy.