Quick lineup analysis, Fangraphs nerdery, LaRoche and Byrnes

One of the points I've continually harped on of the past few weeks is simply the following mantra: We are so much better than last year already.

No, we didn't have the honor of overpaying Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, and yes, it looks like we signed a few more Aaron Rowands (this is like a new term I think).

----Sidebar----

The definition of an Aaron Rowand is officially the following:

A player near or past the age of 30 who is either: coming off a career year, plays the game "the right way", is a "good clubhouse guy", or would be considered an excellent complementary player on a team where he is the fourth or fifth best player.

--End Sidebar--

Well, with the all-knowing Fangraphs at my disposal, I've decided to show, in only two stat categories, how we're already better than 2009 based on 4 acquisitions and who they replaced. I will use the stat "O-Swing%" which is the percent of swings that a player reaches outside the strike zone for a pitch. I will also use the stat "Clutch Index" which is some obscure amalgamation of situational percentages and assorted nonsense that apparently calculates how clutch a player is. Yes I know, they have that now.

Basically I'm attempting to show you that we have a much more disciplined team that will draw more walks and will swing at fewer horrendous pitches. Also that we've acquired some documented clutch players.

I am also taking the unusual step of adding a player that is not on the roster, but may damn well end up a Giant. I'm making Yorvit Torrealba part of the list. I just don't think Posey is ready no matter how many times Sabean and Bochy lie to our faces about it. I think Torrealba signing here is a formality. Plus we really don't know what stats to use for Posey. His terrible and extremely limited stats as a pro? His gaudy minor league stats? We just don't know. With that said, let the nerdery begin!

If you are reading this on an email newsfeed or Facebook, click here to go to the site. You need to see the tables below. Just do it, it's the whole point of the article.



Before I say anything, I'd like to point out that out of every time Bengie Molina swung the bat last year... he did so out of the strike zone 44% of the time. FORTY-FOUR PERCENT OF THE TIME HE SWUNG AT BALLS!

In case you're wondering, Rowand only did it 32% of the time. Luis Castillo of the Mets led the league in '09 only swinging at balls 12.2% of the time.

You can look at this one of two ways. You can say, "Hmm, looks like Sabean picked up some decent players, and we are better."

Or you can say, "None of this means jack. We still don't have a big hitter."

I say that we've improved our plate discipline significantly, and I believe we can expect Pablo's discipline to improve in 2010 as he gets better and better. By bringing in DeRosa, Huff, and Freddy Sanchez, we've increased our plate discipline by nearly 5 percent. It doesn't seem like much, but consider that every 100 pitches, we will have taken 5 more balls as a team. Think about how many 3-2 pitches that could turn into walks over the course of a year. Last year they were strikeouts or double play grounders. The more pitches the 2010 Giants take, the higher the collective on base percentage, a figure that was the most horrendous in the entire league last year (.309).

Then you take a look at the Clutch Index. Say what you will, and I'm skeptical about the stat as well, but those 4 new guys have a full point worth of clutchness on their side over their predecessors. In fact, in '09 Pablo Sandoval was 10th best in all of MLB, while DeRosa was ranked 12th and Huff 15th.

Also, these numbers include Yorvit Torrealba, who is still being contacted by the Giants. He's getting back from Venezuela next week, and will play make a deal at that time. Take it the bank, he's going to be a Giant.

Again, you can say what you will about Fangraphs and their stats, but we're looking at 3 guys in the top 15 in the Clutch Index. Not too shabby.

Anyone feel a little better? No? Yes?

Again, if you couldn't see the tables, click here to go to the Dodgerhater website.

Quick notes:

Brandon Medders avoided arbitration and is back with an $820k deal. A bargain, when Fangraphs estimates his value at $1.4MM.

Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic has an article filled with informational nuggets. First, he writes that LaRoche took less money to sign in Arizona because of the ballpark dimensions.

The following is from John Shea of the Chronicle though:

"I like (Chase Field) first because it's a dome, and I like the climate," LaRoche said on a conference call. "I don't know if it's the backdrop, the batter's eye, but it's a really good park to see the ball. I like playing here.

"Not to bash (the Giants) at all, I just had to weigh it. Was it worth going there for a couple of years or just riding it out and seeing what kind of options were available? They kind of started dwindling fast. When (the Diamondbacks' offer) came out, when I first heard about it, I remember telling my agent, 'Let's try to get this done.' This is a chance that I didn't want to waste."

Regarding his multiple two-year offers, LaRoche said, "They just happened to be in places I wasn't excited about."

The next piece of info from both Piecoro and Shea has to do with Eric Byrnes, who was released by the Snakes. Once a few more days go by, Arizona will be on the hook for the rest of his salary and they'll probably release him, making him free to sign with whomever he wants.

Again, from John Shea:

"It's not a real secret (that) I'd definitely be interested," Byrnes said in a phone interview. "The Giants, of course, that's the best fit geographically."

Byrnes was a Giants fan as a kid, graduated from Mountain View's St. Francis High and makes his offseason home in the Bay Area. He has had memorable games at the Giants' park, where he's a .295 hitter in 132 at-bats (five homers, 20 RBIs, 6-for-6 in steals) and hit for the cycle in June 2003 with the A's.

Thoughts on LaRoche and Byrnes? I'd be happy with Byrnsey being a platoon guy in right field, plus he'd be minimum salary cheap. I'd be more comfortable with him in RF than Schierholtz or Bowker. I'd love to hear what you people have to think. I don't see how it could backfire...

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Lincey's Cy Young hopes all but gone and Winn sucks

It is with great regret that I say this, but there is very little to be happy about at this current juncture. Tim Lincecum will probably not win the Cy Young award for the second year in a row.

Is he deserving of it and should he win? Hell yeah he should.

The problem is a lack of wins. As I wrote in this August 28th post, Timmy being Timmy may not cut it this year-- and it's not his fault.

Chris Carpenter/Adam Wainwright seem to have a leg up right now, and a lot of it has to do with the team they play on rather than them having "blow-you-away" stats. The Cardinals are simply a better team. They've won more games, they've scored more runs. It's that simple.

Carpenter: 187.2 IP, 16-4, 2.30 ERA, 138 K, 1.07 WHIP, 6.62 K/9

Lincecum : 218.1 IP, 14-7, 2.47 ERA, 254 K, 1.09 WHIP, 10.47 K/9

Wainwright: 219 IP, 18-8, 2.59 ERA, 193 K, 1.21 WHIP, 7.93 K/9

It truly is an unbelievably close race, and everyone knows which horse we're pulling for. Timmy's numbers are overall the best I think, especially because of his cartoonish strikeout totals. It's all up to the writers though, and I think the sob story of Carpenter returning to prominent dominance following 2 years of injuries will tear-jerk them into a vote for Carp. Timmy has one more start this season, so the lineup gets one more chance to pick up their ace. Don't hold your breath.

This could've all been avoided though...

IF THE GIANTS COULD SCORE SOME GODDAMN RUNS FOR THIS GUY IN SEPTEMBER!

Friday's offensive performance was downright offensive. Getting two measly hits off Z and 1 measly walk is just a total joke. Zambrano is a guy who allows nearly 1.5 baserunners per inning on the season! We get three in the whole effing game. Typical.

All while Timmy is out there pitching his can off, dog-tired, and in need of a pick-me-up.

And while I'm on the subject of offensive offense, we can all put this effing stat in our collective pipe and smoke it:

Randy Winn, a guy who has taken the majority of his at bats in 2009 in the 3rd spot (inexplicably) in the order, has... wait for it....

Two home runs.

Two.

Carlos Zambrano has four home runs in 2009.

Yes. That Carlos Zambrano. Carlos Zambrano the pitcher. The guy who hits 9th and isn't supposed to hit .160. I am ashamed right now.

And to top it off, Bochy has continually defended putting Randy Winn in the 3rd spot all year. The order disorder has gone on all season. Although Bochy has gotten unbelievably far with the tools he was given for his lineup, the continual unwillingness to rid the lineup of Renteria and Winn (and even Rowand) all year probably cost us 5 games. Guess how many games we're behind Colorads right now.

Here's another stat to smoke in your pipe.

Randy Winn hit .212 this season in the 3rd spot of the lineup. That is the lowest average of any spot in the order this year in which he's had 10 or more at bats. I'm sorry. I have to make a spreadsheet of this. Indulge me and click here please. This is too appalling. Just do it.



It's sickening.

Oh.

And it's about goddamn time Buster Posey got a friggin start. What's the plan for next year, huh? Is Posey or is Posey not the future catcher of this organization? Are you going to start the season next year with Eli Whiteside and Steve Holm as your catching tandem? Get Posey as much big league experience as possible while he's up here. How effing hard is that to understand? If he doesn't start the rest of the Giants' remaining games, I'm going to put my head through the drywall. You've gotta be kidding me. Sit Bengie's ass down permanently. It's been a nice run Big Money, and you carried us through some dark times, but I'm tired of your ways, and you are no longer part of this team. Good bye and good luck.

In fact, while I'm on this angry rant, goodbye Randy Winn, Randy Johnson, and Rich Aurilia. Three great guys, three washed up ballplayers.

God. Sorry. I needed to get that out there.

PS: Mike Krukow said Vespas were cool during the 5th inning. I used to respect him 100%. Now it's at 99.5%. Don't ever say that again Krook. Also. Congrats to Matt Cain for winning the Willie Mac award.

I've gotta sleep this off. Later.


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Another one run loss, Bumgarner looks solid

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I swear... this act is getting really, REALLY old.

I've just never seen anything like this in all my days. We are, in effect living and dying with a team that literally loses by one run nearly every time. It is just the most frustrating damn thing on earth, it really is. Being positive is becoming harder and harder... pretty soon we're all going to start having a recurring nightmare where we're standing up at the altar, and the Giants don't show up for the wedding-- I mean playoffs.

We have now lost our past 4 games by a total of, yes you guessed it, FOUR RUNS. I'm becoming enraged as we speak.

Serenity now, Mr. Costanza. Serenity now. Deep breaths.

You probably saw the game, so I'll try not to dwell on details. After all, you don't read this for recaps. Let's talk about Madison Bumgarner. Come on, you perked up a little bit just now, didn't you?

To be honest, I thought I knew more about the kid than I did. For some reason, I thought he threw harder... like 94-96. Heh. I kinda felt like a scout or a pitcher on his day off, charting Mad-Bum's pitches in my notebook.


True fans chart pitches!

Anyway. He threw 76 pitches (I missed 1 or 2 due to CSN) in 5.1 innings with 2 earnies and 4 K's. Certainly a very respectable outing for a 20 year old Double A callup who didn't even expect to start.

I got a pretty good idea of his three pitches tonight-- especially once he settled down. His three quarter release from the left side is certainly part of why he is going to be an effective pitcher. It's a deceptive and almost a total cross-body pitching motion. Coupled with pretty damn good control, he's certainly got the tools.

It's difficult to truly gauge what a pitchers strengths and weaknesses are going to be from just one sample size, but here are my observations:

-- I charted 43 fastballs, most of which fell between 88-92 mph.

-- He threw 15 circle changeups which fell between 81-86 mph. He got a couple of big swings and misses on them early in the game. If he can improve this pitch, he could be a seriously good pitcher. This appears to be his weakest pitch.

-- His slider is his most deceptive, and in my opinion, best pitch. It appears really slurvy and flat, but it takes hitters by surprise, and is especially filthy to lefties. He got Adrian Gonzalez to look foolish on a couple of these. He threw this pitch 16 times and it nearly always landed on 78 mph. Bumgarner seemed extremely comfortable with his breaking ball.

-- He needs to work on keeping the ball down. Too many of his fastballs were up, and the two dingers he gave up-- one to Chase Headley, and one to Will Venable-- were both fastballs, one was 90 mph and one was 92 respectively.

-- He simply doesn't throw hard enough to get away with fastballs up at the waist. Once he learns how to pitch, he'll be able to mix speeds even more effectively than he already does. I'm no pitching guru, but I'm thinking that if he is able to improve his changeup, he could really be something. Establishing his offspeed stuff first, then "blowing" them away with a 92 mph fastball could be filthy.

-- Bumster has incredible poise out there. He shows very little emotion, and seemed truly unrattled out there. He just strikes me as a confident, quiet Carolina kid that doesn't say too much and carries a big stick.

-- I really think we need to come up with a better nickname than "Mad-Bum". It's a cop out. My vote right now is "The Carolina Kid". I'm going to refer to him as that until someone comes up with something better. (This is what the comment section is for).


Game Notes & Quirky Observations

-- Hey Will Venable! Can you, like, not hit home runs against your hometown team? I'm happy to see a fellow San Rafael native do well in the majors, but dude! No more dingers for you!

-- Will's younger brother Winston is the starting safety for Boise State and his dad Max played for the Giants. San Rafael rules, but San Rafael High School sucks!

-- Jeremy Affeldt could be unraveling a bit. I really wouldn't be surprised. He's been incredible all year, but he's gotta be totally exhausted at this point. He's already appeared in 64 games, and is on pace to pitch in 75. Not a record, but still.

-- What a great play by Freddy Sanchez (I believe in the 7th). He saved the game from being a "three run blowout". A huge sno-cone job against Nick Hundley with the bases juiced.

-- Everything about David Eckstein bothers me.

-- Everything.

-- Krukow's first observation of The Carolina Kid (see, told you I was starting it) was that "...he's a walker." As in, he walks out to the mound. Guy never ceases to crack me up on the simplest, stupidest things.

-- The effing Colorado Rockies won a-goddamn-gain. Can we get a little help here Cincy? Please?

-- I'm burying the fact that we're now three games back in the wild card all the way down here, as to prevent our anger from boiling over.

-- It's not working.

-- Pablo Sandoval has the highest single season batting average for a switch hitter in Gyros history. Currently at .326.

-- Chili Davis had the previous record at .315

-- An amazing thing has happened. Juan Uribe is so awesome, that the AT&T faithful have brought back the "OOOOOOOOOOOOOO! REEEEEEEE-BAAAY!" chant back. It's effing awesome. It was originally Candlestick chant for the late, great Jose Uribe, Juan's second cousin.

-- Why do these worthless old Balldudes get to have a #1 on their uni's? Screw that. The only #1 on the Giants is Big Money Molina. Give those guys double zero. Disrespectful oversight. I'm gonna talk to some people... straighten this out.

-- On that note, we absolutely need to bring back the black alternate uni's for next year. They were awesome. Seriously, just wear them on Friday nights at home, like we did back in the day. They were slick, sharp, and they've got some great mojo in them. The hats were sick too.

-- No effing way. Aaron Rowand hit a home run at AT&T. He now has 14. He makes $12 million dollars

-- Juan Uribe has 12 dongs and makes one twelfth of what Rowand does.

-- Congrats to Randy Winn and Dave Flemming who just had a couple little bundles of loud, crying joy delivered by their wives in the last few days.

-- Merkin Valdez is not to be trusted anymore.

-- The only thing I'll say about the Milwaukee series is the following:

Prince Fielder, you better be able to run, because you are getting drilled in the ribcage with a 95 mph widowmaker the next time we meet. You sons of bitches will not get away with that grotesque, choreographed monstrosity of a celebration. That kind of crap belongs off the field. You're not LeBron James, and you can't do that crap during a game.

Completely unacceptable. The entire Brewers organization should be fined for that garbage. Eff you guys. If you Giants fans aren't outraged by this, you don't care enough.

Okay Zito. We need a shutout I guess. Work your magic!

We're still in this!

Timmy struggles, we still get the W

Timmy was definitely not himself out there tonight. His 5 earned runs are the most he's given up since May 15th vs. the Mets. He's still a freak, but he's human after all.

-- Another questionable call by the umpires. Homer Bailey stroked one down the 1st base line to break open the game in the second inning. Lincecum and Bengie Mo immediately protested the call, even while the ball was still in play. Bochy subsequently got thrown out for arguing it. Naturally the only cameras at the ballpark missed the play, so I can't condemn the play one way or the other.

Bochy has now been ejected 5 times this year and 3 times in the last 2 weeks. Love it. According to this Forbes article, Bochy is the 5th most ejected manager in baseball since 2004. Love it more. Never woulda guessed that though...

-- Timmy grew up in the Seattle area and prefers the temperature on the cool side. In his last two starts with 4 earned runs or more (in Atlanta and Cincy). The weather in ATL was 83 degrees with 64% humidity. The weather Tuesday in the Queen City was 82 degrees with 72% humidity.

Timmy doesn't like that stuff. Timmy likes fog.

-- Despite Randy Winn's newfound stroke, I still think it's totally wrong to sit Nate Schierholtz.

-- Nate Schierholtz is hitting .411 against lefties this season.

-- Nate Schierholtz is left handed. Go figure.

Glad that one's over... On to Cincinnati

Despite the split in New York, it just didn't feel very satisfying. I suppose that's what splits will do to you...

A few observations on the Mets and Citi Field first though:

--The Mets are a team in shambles. Injuries have just racked this squad and you can tell its players are just barely hanging onto relevance. With David Wright now out for awhile, they simply have no one out there to lead the replacements. I've always loved Jeff Francoeur and Gary Sheffield, but neither are real leaders.

Then again, were Delgado, Jose Reyes, or Carlos Beltran?

Oh yeah, I forgot, this has been why they've collapsed year after year.

--I've always thought Mets manager Jerry Manuel to be somewhat of a dunce. He stabbed Willie Randolph in the back last year, and Manuel was dopey with the White Sox too. I never cared for him. But now... well now, I've really got a reason.

He also once said, "I don't like to rely on stats."

So flip a coin, Jerry.

Whether or not Manuel ordered the two retaliatory bean balls or whether the artist formerly known as Johan Santana did that on his own accord... pretty classless moves overall. That goes back to the culture and leadership of the Mets. That is on Jerry Manuel.

Matt Cain is not malicious, and he never would have hit anyone in the head on purpose, especially a class act like David Wright. To hit both Sandoval and Bengie was blatant and unacceptable-- not to mention totally unwarranted.

Absolutely moronic and classless.


--Citi Field looks, well... how do I put this?

Lame.

It looks like a futuristic version of old Shea Stadium. There are no background views, ridiculous wind tunnels, too much foul territory, and unhappy fans. There is zero about this stadium on television that makes it stand out. It's something like a bland version of Philadelphia and Washington. The best part about this stadium are the colorful ads. Seriously. The old school Pepsi sign is my favorite thing.


The trademarks of all new stadiums are the architectural styling, bold lines, and skyline backdrops. There are subtle and bold examples of this. Pittsburgh has a great view of the city, San Diego has the old brick building, Houston has the hill in center and the train tracks, Cincy has the riverboat smoke stacks, Milwaukee has the Bernie Brewer Slide. Hell, even the refurbished Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City looks better than Citi Field.

New York City has so many things to work with, and they just blew it. Like Nationals Park in D.C., there is nothing about this place that stands out. It honestly looks depressing in there. I see a nearly totally enclosed, cavernous, nearly Three Rivers Stadium-esque ballpark with bizarre dimensions.

Pathetic.

--As for the Giants, it was a so-so effort. Granted, the 10-1 win on Monday as well as the 10th inning win on Saturday felt good. It's just the other times when we can't put any offense together that just drag us down. Let's hope the awakening that occurred in the series finale can carry over into Cincinnata (that's how they say it).

-- Stay hot A.U. Velez! He's hitting .500 in the past two games with 2 runs and 2 RBI. He's now hitting .306 on the season.

I've been one of his harshest, most vulgar critics, but he's slowly but surely winning me over. He seems to be somehow getting how to hit. His plate discipline is greatly improved, and he's currently impersonating an offensive catalyst. Imagine that... a real leadoff hitter.

I would like to see him more active as a base stealer though. Despite his speed, he's only attempted to steal 3 times, being caught once.

--Bochy will have to make some decisions about the outfield. With A.U. and Nate The Great ripping the balls all over the place, how can they be kept out of the lineup? Randy Winn needs to sit. We are in a Wild Card race here, and despite his 4/9 stretch over the past two games, he should be the odd man out. All Schierholtz does is hit, and his arm is Francoeur-like. It's a sin not to start him every day.

-- Did you know, Randy Winn's real name is Dwight Randolph Winn?

-- Did you also know that D.R. Winn (Doctor Winn anyone?) is making $9.6 million dollars this season?

-- Did you know that Noah Lowry is being paid $4.5 million this season?

-- Did you know that when we released Dave Roberts earlier this year, we were required to continue paying him his $6.5 million dollar salary?

-- Aaron Rowand, Randy Winn, Noah Lowry, and Dave Roberts cost the Giants a total of $32.6 million this season alone. The stats we got from these four guys (obviously Rowand and Winn as of Sunday): .264 avg, 101 runs, 11 HR, 89 RBI, 14 SB.

That would be a really nice season for Matt Kemp or Bobby Abreu. Doesn't that just make your stomach churn?

-- Happy Lincecum day everyone! Homer Bailey is on the mound for the Reds on Tuesday. If you were ever going to bet on baseball... this would be the game.

--Breaking news as I'm writing this. Stephen Strasburg signs with the Nats for just under $16 million. Awesome. I'm so glad they didn't give him more. Eff you Scott Boras.

-- The Giants also signed the 6th overall pick, RHP Zack Wheeler. They gave him just under $3.3 million. Wheeler, out of HS in Georgia, had a 0.54 ERA in his senior season. He steps into the system void left by the trades of Scott Barnes and Timmy Alderson. Godspeed young Wheeler. Godspeed.